River Flood Warning 30, NWS Wichita, KS

197 
WGUS83 KICT 250148
FLSICT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 
848 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Kansas...
 
  Cowskin Creek At Wichita At 119th Street affecting Sedgwick 
  County.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Shallow 
flowing water can wash a car from the roadway.

&&

KSC173-250218-
/O.CAN.KICT.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-150525T1800Z/
/COWK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
848 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Cowskin Creek At Wichita At 119th Street.
* At 8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 17.8 feet and  
  will fall to 10.6 feet by Tuesday morning. This will be the final
  forecast for this site for this event.


&&


                     FLD       OBSERVED        FORECAST 7 PM
Location             STG    STG  DAY  TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   
  Wichita At 119th   18.0  16.8  Sun  8 PM   12.2   9.5   8.0
    
&&
    
LAT...LON 3779 9766 3756 9747 3760 9737 3784 9753


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PLAN IS TO EXTEND THE PORTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH THAT EXPIRES AT
18Z THROUGH 00Z.

REGIONAL 88D'S SHOWS A VERY PRONOUNCED CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTH
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK. EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL STAY OVER FAR EASTERN OK/SE KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE IS A VERY SLOW MOVING AREA OF MODERATE RAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER THAT MAY AFFECT AT LEAST SUMNER AND
COWLEY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED...WITH GROUNDS SO SATURATED...IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MOIST AXIS STILL POINTING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS AND REMNANTS OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LURKING IN
WESTERN KS. WILL CONTINUE MOST OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FAIRLY
HIGH POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AROUND 0000 UTC...EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO WANE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. IF SKIES SUBSTANTIALLY
CLEAR...WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN...COULD SEE FOG/DENSE FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

MON-MON NIGHT:
MON CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING DAY OF THE FORECAST.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW INSTABILITY SOARING DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHEAR/HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MICROBURSTS IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP. BOUNDARY LAYER CIN SUGGEST AREA MAY REMAIN
CAPPED...WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK FORCING DURING THE DAY.
FORCING WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH...WITH POPS INCREASING ACCORDINGLY.

TUE:
WITH SHORTWAVE LIKELY OUT OF THE AREA BY 1200 UTC...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. DID HAVE TO
DRIBBLE LOW POPS ALONG NE BORDER FOR CONSISTENCY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NO BIG CHANGES FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH UPPER PATTERN STILL
FAVORING A RELOADING WESTERN TROUGH WITH RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND
DIFFUSE TO NON-EXISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION TIMING/
LOCATION WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. INITIALIZATION GRIDS STILL
HAVE LOW POPS ALL PERIODS...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
RIPPLES...WILL KEEP THEM GOING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY RUNNING A BIT
CONSERVATIVE ON MAXES GIVEN OPTIMISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOW CEILINGS AT LEAST OFF AND ON AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS PERSIST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST OFF AND ON AND EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EXPECT THAT TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AND IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD DROP TO IFR TO
LIFR. EXPECTING TO LIFT AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BACK TO
MVFR.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  59  83  62 /  30  30  20  30
HUTCHINSON      70  58  83  60 /  20  20  20  30
NEWTON          70  57  82  61 /  30  30  20  30
ELDORADO        70  59  81  62 /  50  40  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  58  82  62 /  50  40  20  30
RUSSELL         71  56  78  57 /  20  20  20  40
GREAT BEND      71  56  79  58 /  20  20  20  30
SALINA          72  58  81  60 /  20  20  20  40
MCPHERSON       71  57  82  60 /  20  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     72  59  81  65 /  90  80  30  30
CHANUTE         70  60  80  64 /  80  80  30  40
IOLA            70  60  80  64 /  80  80  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    71  60  81  64 /  90  80  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069-
083-092-093.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1048 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1048 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING IS LIKELY TODAY ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE WITH RIVER FLOODING ALSO LIKELY. CHECK THE LATEST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AND FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR SPECIFICS.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE LIKELY
MONDAY EVENING. SOME COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
QUARTER SIZED HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS...ESPECIALLY ALONG CREEKS AND RIVERS...
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

HOWERTON/LAWSON