Heat Advisory 3, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...COUPLED WITH HOT/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN KS AND THE PANHANDLES OF
TX/OK. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SIGNS OF THIS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK
AS WELL AS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK/SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SITUATED
NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...STEMMING FROM REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
STRONGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND HOT/MOIST LOW-LEVELS...IN CONCERT WITH WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KS (CLOSER TO OK BORDER) WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED SUB-CLOUD AIRMASS...GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST CORES COULD
ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT GENERALLY WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF 800-600MB ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

ADK

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TRAILING POSITIVELY-TILTED
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A VERY HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS IS PROGGED
ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL
ALSO EJECT OUT OF THE MOONSONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE. WEAK-MODERATE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETS DURING
THE PERIOD WILL ALSO FOCUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT NIGHTTIME/MORNING CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE PM/EVE HOURS. GIVEN PROGGED VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT
PM/EVE OVER NORTHWESTERN KS...AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITHIN A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY HOT AND BREEZY DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 90S SOUTHEAST...TO 100-102 IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE LOOKS REASONABLE ALONG/EAST OF
I-135 WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH AS TO THE WEST OF
I-135. FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SAGS AND ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
EFFECTS...HOWEVER THE NAM-WRF...GFS...AND ECMWF HANG THE FRONT UP
ENOUGH...THAT IT APPEARS SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR SUNDAY PM. SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER...LIKELY AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

MID-UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS MID-
LATE WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD MID-
LATE WEEK. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO PERHAPS WEDNESDAY...WITH A TREND FOR DRIER AND
HOTTER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 3-4PM OVER WESTERN KS AND THE PANHANDLES OF
OK/TX...AS SUBTLE RIPPLES EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST SUBTROPICAL PLUME
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UNSURE ON EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO FOR NOW ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH AT ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL. LATER SHIFTS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO INSERT VCTS OR EVEN SHORT TEMPOS FOR TSRA. EXPECTING MOST OF
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF 800-600MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG/GUSTY BY MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 100  76  96 /  20  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      77 101  75  94 /  20  20  20  40
NEWTON          75  99  75  94 /  20  20  20  40
ELDORADO        77  97  76  96 /  20  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  77  97 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         74 101  70  89 /  20  20  40  40
GREAT BEND      75 102  70  90 /  30  20  30  40
SALINA          77 102  73  90 /  20  20  30  40
MCPHERSON       76 101  74  93 /  20  20  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     77  95  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         76  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            76  95  75  93 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    77  95  76  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ093>096-
098>100.

&&

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