Excessive Heat Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

Allen County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Reno County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS MAY BECOME A
FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND TO
MCPHERSON TO COTTONWOOD FALLS WHERE SCATTERED POPS WERE MAINTAINED.
LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS MAY LEAD TO
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP BUT MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND ~30 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

TUE-WED...IF STORM COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED...THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY BE FORCED FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO AIRMASS CHANGE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SOME STORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN A MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WED...HOWEVER LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE ONGOING
STORMS/LIMITED INSOLATION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN.

THU...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA ON THU AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
LOW/MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PROPAGATES REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A SURFACE TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. PLAN TO CARRY VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN
AND AMEND WHEN AND IF NEEDED FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT
THESE TERMINALS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO TUESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  98  73  95 /  20  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      75  99  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
NEWTON          73  97  72  93 /  20  20  30  30
ELDORADO        75  96  73  94 /  20  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  98  74  96 /  10  10  20  10
RUSSELL         73  96  71  92 /  20  30  40  40
GREAT BEND      72  96  72  93 /  30  20  30  30
SALINA          73  99  73  91 /  30  30  40  30
MCPHERSON       73  97  72  93 /  20  20  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     75  96  75  96 /  10  10  20  10
CHANUTE         76  95  74  94 /  20  10  20  10
IOLA            76  95  74  93 /  20  10  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    75  96  75  95 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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