Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
211 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES
ARND 100. RADARS WERE SHOWING SCT SHRA/TSRA JUST SOUTH OF THE TN
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER SRN AL. THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A CDFNT EXTENDING FROM NRN TX THRU CENTRAL MO AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT. MODELS ALL SHOW THAT
THIS CDFNT WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF STORMS/SQUALL LINE THAT WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT NW AL ARND MIDNIGHT. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN THREATS TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE CDFNT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY THE AFTN TAKING
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WITH IT. THE BEST CHC OF SVR WX SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTN...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
SPEED OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTN HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S AND NO PCPN.

MONDAY MRNG/AFTN COULD BE DRY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. GFS DOES BRING
A CHC OF MORE SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN/NIGHT...THANKS TO
AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
AS THE TN VALLEY REMAINS IN NW FLOW. MODEL BLENDS ARE KEEPING A CHC
OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF ANY PCPN IF VERY
IFFY ATTM. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT TEMPS LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z-09Z EXCEPT NEAR
TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
RETAINED VCTS BTWN 21-02Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY TSRA ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP OR MEANDER TOWARDS
TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE AND IMPACT TERMINALS WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z-15Z. AFTER 14Z-15Z, EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO PREVAIL.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  84  61  85 /  80  80  20  10
SHOALS        73  85  62  85 /  80  60  20  10
VINEMONT      72  84  61  85 /  80  80  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  70  81  59  84 /  80  70  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   72  84  61  83 /  80  80  20  10
FORT PAYNE    70  82  60  83 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
106 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-271000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
106 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.

OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE ONCE AGAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF STORMS NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

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