Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
242 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE PARENT LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM NEW
ENGLAND...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS
RISEN...WHICH IS HELPING TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.

AREA RADARS SHOW CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
HAS MAINTAINED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS MAIN LINE AND CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS
DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE JUST THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PUSHES IT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...DESPITE THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. AS STATED ABOVE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY
SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...AND SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN A THREAT WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH THE HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH
SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE ENTERING
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT ACTUALLY MAKES IT
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
EXIT THE AREA...LEAVING A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST ON TUESDAY. GIVEN ONLY
PARTLY CLOUD SKIES...TEMPS MAY WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN CONCERNING THE
PRECIP CHANCES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SET IN...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE IN BY THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE MODEL BLEND...WITH CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MOST PERIOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY...AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...A CDFNT NOW OVER SERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SE THIS AFTN/EVENING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CDFNT WILL BE THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA. WILL INCLUDE TSRA IN TAFS MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z.
MODELS STILL ARE SHOWING THAT THE CDFNT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
BEGINNING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH THE PCPN TAPERING OFF. OTHERWISE
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  90  67  91 /  80  20  20  30
SHOALS        68  90  67  91 /  80  20  20  20
VINEMONT      68  87  66  88 /  70  30  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  86  65  87 /  80  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   67  86  65  87 /  70  40  20  30
FORT PAYNE    66  85  65  87 /  70  30  20  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1055 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-090000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1055 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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