Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Huntsville, AL

198 
WWUS84 KHUN 151105
RFWHUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
505 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

ALZ001>010-016-160000-
/O.CON.KHUN.FW.W.0003.150215T1700Z-150216T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-
505 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...

* AFFECTED AREA... LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN AL... 
  LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MORGAN...MARSHALL... 
  JACKSON...DEKALB...AND CULLMAN COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...11 AM TO 6 PM CST TODAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25% FOR AT LEAST 4
  HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD WILL INCREASE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

403 
WWUS84 KHUN 152350
RFWHUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
550 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

ALZ001>010-016-160100-
/O.EXP.KHUN.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150216T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-
550 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LOW
HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RISE ABOVE 25% ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA DUE TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET.
THUS...WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.

$$

SL.77

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WAS
GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 40. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AREAS OF FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FALL AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BRISK
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z-15Z ON SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO WIND CHILL
VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND ZERO TO NEARLY TEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE COLDER
NAM TEMPS FOR SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
MODEL TRENDING INVOLVING THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE COLD TEMPS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP TYPE
INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER 09Z MONDAY AND SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA FROM
06Z MONDAY UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE
EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM THE LOWER LAYERS ENOUGH SO THAT THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL CHANGE OVER AND MIXING INITIALLY OF SLEET WITH THE SNOW...AND
THEN TO A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COMBINATION BY 00Z TUESDAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER MAY HAVE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT
DUE TO THE DURATION OF TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH GROUND TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDING CONTINUES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION GENERALLY ACCEPTED...LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MORE IN
THE FOUR INCH RANGE. HAVE BUMPED UP POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY BASED UPON 12Z GFS MODEL TRENDING...WHICH KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS 00Z MODEL RUN.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED ICE POTENTIAL FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER DUE TO
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WARMING.

THE GFS/NAM MODELS HOLD ON TO THE PRECIP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE MUCH FASTER ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE COLDER ECMWF MODEL TEMPS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO DEPTH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER. THE GFS MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ANOTHER BURST OF LIGHT SNOW. HAVE ADDED IN LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SOLUTION.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF MIXED PRECIP EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. WARM ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP WITH TEMPS
NEARING 50 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES FOR
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND
THEN SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EACH TERMINAL BY
04Z...WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LESSEN AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    16  32  24  32 /  10  10  60  90
SHOALS        18  33  26  31 /  10  10  70  90
VINEMONT      15  33  26  30 /  10  10  60  90
FAYETTEVILLE  14  28  22  31 /  10  10  60  90
ALBERTVILLE   17  34  25  32 /  10  10  40  90
FORT PAYNE    17  31  24  32 /  10  10  40  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
249 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-151200-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
249 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF FEW SNOW FLURRIES TO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE
LOWER 20S INTO THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 9 BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN MIXTURE IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM 0.10 ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TO UP TO 0.4 INCHES ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TRANSITION
BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN ALL
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER.