Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
230 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD AND EXIT
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE A RETURN TO HIGHER
PRESSURE AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS HIT
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT. TODAY/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RECEIVING ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FROM A PIECE OF VORT MAX ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ABLE TO PICK UP ON
THE CIRCULATION AS THE FLOW NEAR YOSEMITE IS FROM THE EAST WHILE
THE GRAPEVINE HAS A NORTHERLY FLOW. SO FAR TODAY...ADIABATIC
DRYING HAS PREVENTED ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO REACH THE VALLEY
FLOOR. HOWEVER...AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS...COULD SEE A SHOWER
REACH THE SANGER TO VISALIA...TO PORTERVILLE AREA. MODELS STILL
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE DAY-LIGHT HOURS BEFORE MORE STABLE
AIR ENTERS THE REGION.

SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE VORT MAX MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS
ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES MORE STABLE AIR INTO CALIFORNIA. AT THAT
POINT...WILL HAVE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI RANGE. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE FLAT
RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND MORE OVER CALIFORNIA. THE SHIFT WILL
ALLOW FOR FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AS REACH WELL BEYOND THE
CENTURY MARK ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OVER THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE A FLAT PATTERN...THE
RIDGE WILL NOT HAVE THE STRENGTH TO PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TROF
FROM PUSHING ONSHORE. THEREFORE...A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS...SATURDAY
MAY SEE THE PEAK IN DAY TIME HEATING BEFORE A COOL DOWN BEGINS ON
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT A TRUE TROF PASSAGE TOWARD THE LATER PERIODS OF
THE EXTENDED...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BEFORE THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN TO KEEPING THE DISTRICT BELOW THE
CENTURY MARK. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE
TERMINATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN ATTEMPT TO
KEEP THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW TOWARD NEXT THURSDAY. GFS
MOD-TREND/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROF BY NEXT
FRIDAY. YET...MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE ONTO THE WEST
COAST LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
NORTH OF HAWAII. THEREFORE...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BEING THE
BIGGEST INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS IS GROWING TOWARD
THIS PATTERN AS MODEL CERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE FOR AREAS OF MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR IN LOW CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z SAT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY JUNE 13 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-12      107:1985     66:1998     73:1985     47:1952
KFAT 06-13      107:1949     69:1922     71:1985     47:1907
KFAT 06-14      108:1966     65:1962     72:2007     42:1907

KBFL 06-12      110:1979     63:1998     75:1979     38:1907
KBFL 06-13      106:1940     75:1907     76:1975     41:1907
KBFL 06-14      111:1961     70:1962     78:1975     43:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
713 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

CAZ096-097-131230-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
713 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

* TIMING: THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KERN
  COUNTY.

* IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING AS WELL AS
  BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

* TIMING: SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KERN
  COUNTY.

* IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING AS WELL AS
  BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ095-131230-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
713 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

* TIMING: THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: TEHACHAPI...PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB...LAKE
  ISABELLA...FRAZIER PARK.

* IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING AS WELL AS
  BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ098-099-131230-
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
713 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERT.

...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

* TIMING: THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: MOJAVE...ROSAMOND...CHINA LAKE...RIDGECREST.

* IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING AS WELL AS
  BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
334 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      9 ENE MOUNTAIN MESA     35.67N 118.27W
06/12/2015                   KERN               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADWAY FLOODING REPORTED BY CHP. WATER AND
            MUD KELSO CREEK RD/SR178

&&

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
443 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      2 WNW TEHACHAPI         35.14N 118.47W
06/12/2015                   KERN               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WB HWY58 CLOSED AT MM144 DUE TO MUDSLIDE.

&&

WP

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