Wind Advisory 17, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

242 
WWUS74 KHGX 262147
NPWHGX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015


TXZ199-213-238-270200-
/O.EXB.KHGX.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-151227T0200Z/
GALVESTON-HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONROE...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...
HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LEAGUE CITY...PASADENA...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WILLIS
347 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

* EVENT...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER 
  GUSTS. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED FOR
  SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...UNSECURED ITEMS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND AND POSSIBLY 
  DAMAGED. DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES COULD BECOME DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS

&&

$$

TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-227-235>237-270200-
/O.EXT.KHGX.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-151227T0200Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-JACKSON-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...
FREEPORT...HEMPSTEAD...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...WEIMAR...WHARTON
347 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER 
  GUSTS. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED FOR
  SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...UNSECURED ITEMS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND AND POSSIBLY 
  DAMAGED. DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES COULD BECOME DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
440 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE AN UNENDING SERIES OF WARM STARTS TO
THE DAY WITH TEMPS AT 3 AM STILL HOVERING IN THE LOWER 70S. LIKE
YESTERDAY...IT'LL ONLY TAKE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 80S. MSTR LEVELS ARE A BIT DEEPER AND THERE SHOULD
BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
TODAY. TEMP FCST IS TRICKY AS THE WINDS/RAIN SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN CHECK. KHGX VWP SHOWS 30-35 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND A PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE OF 8 MB ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 MPH IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 10 AM AND EXPIRING AT 6 PM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST AND APPROACH
THE BIG BEND ON SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER SW TEXAS AND MOVE E-NE ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. JET
DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL
JET AND A 120 KT SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN.
PW VALUES VARY A BIT WITH THE NAM INCREASING VALUES TO 1.90 INCHES
AND THE GFS A BIT DRIER AT 1.75 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE AND HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 400
ON SUNDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING AND
CAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY MODEST BETWEEN 800-1200 J/KG. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED SE TX IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY AND CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY AVAILABLE AND HELICITY VALUES....FEEL SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR
SUNDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF HANG ON TO PRECIP INTO THE EVENING WHILE
THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
AND SUBSIDENCE AND HINTS OF DRY SLOTTING IN THE PRECIP FIELDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK END TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT SO
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS.

OUR EARLY WINTER "SUMMER" IS COMING TO AN END AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS
PRETTY COLD. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 50S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUES NIGHT/WED. GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY AND SHUNTS
THE BEST MST EAST OF THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING
IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A SWATH OF PRECIP. NOT SURE HOW
THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT AND BUT ADDED CHANCE POPS FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO SE TX
WITH COLD TEMPS PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

43
&&

.MARINE...
STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE KEPT THE SEA FOG AT BAY THIS MORNING...4-
8 MILES HAS BEEN THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY THE LAST FEW HOURS AND
WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN TODAY DON'T EXPECT VISIBILITY TO
LOWER MUCH IF ANY. WINDS THOUGH WILL BE A BIG CONCERN WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KNOTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND MAY STEADY UP NEAR 30 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SCA FLAGS ARE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND GALE WATCH UP FOR
SUNDAY. GALVESTON BAY AND ITS COOLER WATERS MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF
IT TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WILL BE UNDER THE GUN SUNDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 10 AM-1 PM
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY AND GALVESTON BAY BY 3-5 PM. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ONLY TO RAMP RIGHT BACK UP WITH
STRONG DEEP WESTERLY FLOW.

SEAS SHOULD GO FROM 4-6 FEET AREAWIDE THIS MORNING TO 10-13 OFFSHORE
AND 8-10 FEET NEARSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW POST
FRONTAL WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR SOME STEEP WAVES AND ROUGH CHAOTIC
CONDITIONS.  OBSERVED TIDES LEVELS ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.5 FEET NOW
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS
DIPPING BY 1.5 DOWN TO LOW TIDE TIDE LATE THIS MORNING EXPECT THE
OBSERVED TIDE TO ONLY FALL SLOWLY THEN INCREASE AS HIGH TIDE FOLLOWS
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY AM SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO
THE HIGHEST TIDES SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY REACH 3 TO 3.5 FEET. WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND WITH THE
LARGE SEAS OF 7-10 FEET AND LONG SWELL SPREADING TOWARD THE COAST
WILL SEE EXTENSIVE BEACH FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG TO VERY STRONG RIP TIDES. STRONG WEST WINDS POST FRONTAL
SHOULD DRAMATICALLY LOWER TIDE LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
45

&&

.AVIATION... CIGS HAVEN'T FALLEN NEARLY AS LOW AS GUIDANCE AND WILL
KEEP CIGS IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AND AS CORE OF 50-
60KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE REGION TONIGHT/SUNDAY LLWS WILL WORSEN. TODAY
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL DOT THE AREA AND COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
NORTHEAST OF UTS (NOD TO WRF-ARW) THEN AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CIGS IFR TO LOW END MVFR EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST.
45

&&

.CLIMATE...

CHRISTMAS 2015 WAS ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS. THE CITY OF
HOUSTON...HOUSTON HOBBY AND THE CITY OF GALVESTON ALL ESTABLISHED
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. CHECK OUT THE RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM VALUES FOR HOUSTON. THE RECORD WAS BROKEN BY SIX DEGREES
AT BUSH IAH AND NINE DEGREES AT HOUSTON HOBBY. HOUSTON HOBBY
RECORDED A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 75 DEGREES ON CHRISTMAS DAY!!! NEW
ALL TIME AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE WERE ALSO ESTABLISHED...
OBLITERATING THE PREVIOUS DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY FIVE TO
SIX DEGREES. ADDITIONAL HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD AGAIN BE
ESTABLISHED TODAY. 43

LOCATION        HIGH   PREV    LOW     PREV      AVG       PREV
                TEMP           TEMP              DAILY

CITY OF HOUSTON  83   82 1964   73    67 1942    78       73 1942
GALVESTON        76   75 2012   69    68 1875    73       70 1933
HOU HOBBY        83   82 1964   75    66 1944    79       73 1942

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  69  72  37  50 /  50  70 100  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  71  75  41  53 /  40  40  90  50  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  71  75  45  53 /  40  30  80  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...JACKSON...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
453 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

TXZ163-164-177>179-199-200-213-214-238-271100-
CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-
453 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-271100-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
453 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AS STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS PREVAIL. TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SO USE CAUTION IF
HEADING TO THE BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE REPLACE WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
A GAL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AS GUSTS COULD EXCEED 34
KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TRIGGER A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AND AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-227-235>237-271100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-JACKSON-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
453 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE ON
EAST WEST ROADS HAZARDOUS. UNSECURED ITEMS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND BY
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.