Tornado Warning 46, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PCPN STARTING TO RAMP UP ALONG THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...STORMS
ALSO CONTINUING ALONG THE COLD FRONT (WHICH IS ALSO STEADILY MOV-
ING EAST THIS MORNING) AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DRY
LINE A BIT LATER. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSER EYE ON THESE
CELLS OUT WEST WITH WPC INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RAIN-
FALL RATES UP TO 2" DUE TO TRAINING/CELL MERGERS. IN THE MEANTIME
NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE THINKING THAT THE SQUALL LINE IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD PROGS NOW TRENDING A BIT MORE COOLER/WETTER
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE AGGRESSIVE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO PRODUCE SCT PCPN FOR SAT. IN
ITS WAKE...MOS TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE ADJ-
USTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HOLDS UP AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAK THIS MORNING AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON BUT SEAS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FULLY SUBSIDE.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE WNW-ESE THRU THE WATERS FROM THE LATE
MORNING THRU THE MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. ASSOCIATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AND MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR LOCALLY
HIGH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. AN OFFSHORE WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORMS.

TIDES LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1.50 FT ABOVE NORMAL. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ARE ENTERING LOW TIDE SO TOTAL WATER LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 3.0 FEET BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  48  70  49  72 / 100   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  50  73  49  75 / 100  20   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  57  71  60  73 /  90  40   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
459 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-171300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
459 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A LONG FETCH OF SWELLS AND
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MAINLY ALONG FLOOD PRONE COASTAL AREAS SUCH
AS THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 87 AND 124.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SUSCEPTIBLE
ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE. A LONG FETCH OF SWELLS AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE...MAINLY ALONG FLOOD PRONE COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS THE INTERSECTION
OF HIGHWAYS 87 AND 124.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

TXZ195>197-170945-
BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
255 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BRAZOS...BURLESON AND
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CST...

AT 255 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ROUND TOP...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GIDDINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BURTON...MILLICAN...LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM...
QUARRY...LYONS...INDEPENDENCE AND WELLBORN.

LAT...LON 3020 9674 3024 9673 3025 9669 3030 9664
      3030 9667 3032 9669 3032 9674 3034 9676
      3065 9662 3048 9615 3005 9662 3008 9663
      3011 9663 3013 9665 3015 9665 3016 9669
      3015 9671 3014 9677 3016 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 0855Z 219DEG 41KT 3010 9673