Tornado Warning 25, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1118 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
TS BILL WOBBLING WESTWARD BUT NEARLY ONSHORE BETWEEN ROCKPORT AND
MATAGORDA BAY...PERHAPS ONSHORE BY NOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF MATAGORDA BAY AND EXTENDING UP INTO AND
AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA...LIGHTER IN THE GALVESTON BAY AREA.
TS BILL SHOULD TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THEN START THE HOOK BACK
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD THREAT FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE WEST MAY HAVE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5-8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES.

IN THE MEANTIME WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SPINNERS
BUT WITH A FEW DEGREES OF HEATING THIS AFTERNOON THE THREAT MAY
INCREASE A LITTLE. SPC HAS MENTIONED A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TORNADO
WATCH FOR THE AREA...SEE SWOMCD FOR LATEST.

TIDE LEVELS REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH COASTAL FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IN THE MORE FLOOD PRONE AREA. THIS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO FALL
TONIGHT AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS
WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/

AVIATION...
TROPICAL STORM BILL MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. STRENGTHENING EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST EDGE OF BILL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS FLYING CONDITIONS FOR
THE GENERAL AVIATION COMMUNITY THROUGH THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS.
PERIODIC BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL WRAP
AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS
INTENSE TRAILING BANDS IN BILL'S WAKE LATE IN THE PERIOD. PRIMARILY
MVFR CATS...WITH PERIODIC (L)IFR CATS WITHIN BANDS OF PASSING
HEAVY RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OFF-THE-DECK SOUTHEAST WIND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 KTS...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50
KTS CLOSER TO BILL'S CENTER OR AROUND STORMS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE INCREASING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAKES
LANDFALL IN THE PORT OCONNOR/MATAGORDA BAY AREA. WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED (APPROACHING 2.50 INCHES)...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
2 TO 4 INCHES TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TO THE
WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. PER SPC'S 06Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS TODAY.
ELEVATED TIDES ARE PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND IN/AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY
AREA. LATER TODAY AND ON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWERING TIDES AS BILL MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. ANTICIPATE DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA. 42

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS JUST OFFSHORE OF PORT O'CONNOR AT 4 AM
CDT...EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALL
MARINERS ARE URGED TO STAY IN PORT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE OUTER
BANDS OF BILL ROTATE ONSHORE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 25-35 KT SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45
KNOTS...OVER THE MORE WESTERN WATERS/MATAGORDA BAY (GENERALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF POINTS OFFSHORE OF FREEPORT). ELSEWHERE OVER
MORE EASTERN WATERS/GALVESTON BAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH 30 KT GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
CLOSER TO BILL'S CENTER...MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS COULD ACHIEVE 15
FEET OVER THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS. GENERALLY...ROUGH BAY
CONDITIONS WITH NEARSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 8 TO 10 FOOT
RANGE/OFFSHORE 10 TO NEAR 15 FEET WITH LONGER SWELL PERIODS OF
AROUND 10 SECONDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT IN BILL'S
WAKE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  74  84  74  85 / 100 100  80  60  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  77  84  77  87 / 100  90  80  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  80  85  81  85 / 100  60  70  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...
     CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...45

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-211-212-171300-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS
FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP EITHER WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
OR WHERE ANY TRAINING SETS UP. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TOO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP EITHER WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS OR WHERE ANY TRAINING SETS UP.

EXPECT DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES
TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE
45. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-171300-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS BILL APPROACHES MATAGORDA BAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE...
ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS AND SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.
ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AND THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
ARE POSSIBLE TOO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL
ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. CAUTION FLAGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL PERSIST AND THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY LOWERING WINDS AND TIDES
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TXZ200-210-213-214-226-227-235>238-171300-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-
LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
452 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES
MATAGORDA BAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BILL CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP EITHER WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS OR WHERE ANY TRAINING SETS UP. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TOO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP EITHER
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OR WHERE ANY TRAINING SETS UP.

EXPECT DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES
TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE
45. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
731 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TROPICAL STORM   28 E GALVESTON          29.23N  94.43W
06/16/2015                   GMZ355             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 87 FROM ROLLOVER PASS TO HIGHWAY 124 CLOSED DUE
            TO WATER AND DEBRIS OVER THE ROAD

0415 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BAYOU VISTA             29.33N  94.94W
06/16/2015                   GALVESTON          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            YARDS FLOODED IN PARTS OF UNICORPORATED HITCHCOCK AND
            BAYOU VISTA. LOWEST ROADS HAD WATER ON THEM ABOUT AN
            HOUR LATER.

0605 AM     TROPICAL STORM   35 SE PALACIOS          28.35N  95.83W
06/16/2015                   GMZ350             TX   BUOY

            KBQX PLATFORM REPORTED 28G53 KNOTS

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500372 HGX1500373 HGX1500374

47

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
752 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     TROPICAL STORM   14 E PALACIOS           28.70N  96.00W
06/16/2015                   MATAGORDA          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 50 MPH W 60 MPH GUST AT COLORADO LOCKS

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500375

47

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1038 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 AM     TROPICAL STORM   21 SSW PALACIOS         28.45N  96.40W
06/16/2015                   GMZ330             TX   TCOON

            TCOON PORT OCONNOR REPORTED WINDS 37 KNOTS GUSTS 45
            KNOTS OR 43 MPH GUSTS 52 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500376

OVERPECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     TROPICAL STORM   21 SSW PALACIOS         28.45N  96.40W
06/16/2015                   GMZ330             TX   TCOON

            TCOON PORT OCONNOR REPORT WINDS OF 36 KNOTS GUSTS 45
            KNOTS OR 41 MPH GUSTS 52 MPH WITH TS BILL LANDFALL AT
            1145 AM CDT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500377

OVERPECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1232 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     TROPICAL STORM   PALACIOS                28.71N  96.24W
06/16/2015                   MATAGORDA          TX   ASOS

            KPSX PALACIOS AIRPORT REPORTED 29 KNOTS GUST 46 KNOTS
            OR 33 MPH GUST 53 MPH AT 1105AM CDT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500378

OVERPECK