Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A RAGGED LINE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED PULSERS IMPACTING THE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LINE OF STRONG (TO POSSIBLY SEVERE) STORMS FEEDING INTO THE MAIN
LINE OVER HOUSTON AND TRINITY COUNTIES. MANY OF THESE STRONG STORMS
HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED SEVERE LIMITS...BUT CORES ARE DROPPING
ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH TO NEAR THREE INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR. THIS
LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...POSSIBLY INTENSIFYING
AND EVOLVING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED QLCS ON THE SOUTHERN TREK INTO
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

AS SYNOPTIC FORCING WEAKENS...PER A LIFTING SPEED MAX INTO ARKANSAS
AND UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES...THE RESIDENT
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE MESOSCALE. RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY (08Z ANALYSIS HAS IT JUST WEST OF THE EDWARDS ESCARPMENT)
WILL PUT OUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL ENTER A NEAR 1.8 INCH
PW...UNSTABLE AND MODERATELY SHEARED AIR MASS. LIKELY POPS TO
EXTEND TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
(MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORECAST TO BE OVER US THIS
TIME TOMORROW) INITIATING A GOOD BOUT OF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
PRECIPITATION. THIS WAVE MAY KICK OFF A SOUTHWESTERN/LOWER RIO
GRANDE MCS THAT MAY TRACK INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT (TUES) HOURS. THIS ROUND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
INTRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL INDUCE REGIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WILL AID IN PROVIDING LIFT FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
AND STORMS ALONG RESIDUAL GUST FRONT BOUNDARIES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST RAIN WILL FALL
OVER MORE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. WEEKLY RAINFALL SHOULD
TAKE ON MORE OF A EAST-TO-WEST GRADIENT...1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
EAST INCREASING TO 5 INCHES OR MORE ALONG THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE
REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION PER LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE RIPPLES RIDING UP
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION NEXT WEEKEND. 31

&&

.MARINE...

WITH THE VERY SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT INTO NRN SE TX EARLY
THIS MORNING...WINDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THRU 6AM THEN TRANSITION IT INTO SMALL CRAFT CAUTION FLAGS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING. MODELS
HAVE NOT BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEAK
FRONT WILL GO BEFORE IT STALLS. FOR NOW WILL OPT TO KEEP IT OVER
INLAND AREAS...HALTING ITS SWD PROGRESS TO AROUND THE 1-10 CORRI-
DOR (BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR/LACK OF CONSENSUS THUS FAR). THIS
PATTERN COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUES OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS. 41

&&

.AVIATION...

SHORT-RANGE MODELS NOT HAVING A GOOD TIME WITH THIS FRONT/ASSOCI-
ATED TSRAS. BUT HAVING SAID THAT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS LATEST
HRRR RUN MAY BE CATCHING ON. BUT IT UNFORTUNATELY BRINGS A GREAT
DEAL OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO SE TX LATER THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY
KEEP IAH AS THE SOUTHERN MOST POINT FOR THIS LINE WITH THIS NEXT
PACKAGE. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  66  77  67  80 /  60  80  70  60  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  71  81  69  82 /  60  70  70  40  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  81  74  79 /  50  60  60  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1024 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-120330-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
1024 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COUNTIES NORTH OF HOUSTON METRO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SERIES OF HARD-TO-TIME DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS SITUATION
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED PERIODICALLY THROUGH MID WEEK.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-120330-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
1024 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TIDE LEVELS WILL RUN AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHER
THAN NORMAL SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOCAL AREA
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND RESPONDING SEAS WILL LIFT THIS
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT. ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS...SEAS...SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ214-235>238-120330-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
1024 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HIGHER THAN NORMAL SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG LOCAL
AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL FURTHER INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AND A SERIES OF HARD-TO-TIME DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVERHEAD...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS SITUATION
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS...SEAS...SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. WAVE RUN UP
MIGHT REACH LOW LYING AREAS OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON SUNDAY
AROUND HIGH TIDE...INCLUDING THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS OF
HIGHWAY 87 ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND ALSO ALONG THE BLUE WATER
HIGHWAY IN BRAZORIA COUNTY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE WORK WEEK.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ164-177-178-111045-
TRINITY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-WALKER TX-
502 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 502 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
RIVERSIDE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN HUNTSVILLE...TRINITY...GROVETON...RIVERSIDE...SEBASTOPOL
AND OAKHURST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3064 9545 3077 9561 3108 9516 3097 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 233DEG 31KT 3078 9544

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
559 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ164-178-179-111145-
TRINITY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-POLK TX-
559 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN
TRINITY AND NORTH CENTRAL SAN JACINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 558 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ONALASKA...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ONALASKA...CORRIGAN AND SEBASTOPOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 9515 3090 9527 3120 9486 3118 9485
      3116 9485 3115 9486 3113 9480 3111 9475
      3111 9472 3109 9466 3109 9462 3107 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 233DEG 41KT 3088 9514

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
606 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     HEAVY RAIN       9 WNW GROVETON          31.12N  95.26W
05/11/2015  E6.00 INCH       TRINITY            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN REPORTED OVER NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN THE
            TOWN OF FRIDAY. WATER REPORTED OVER ROADWAYS IN THE DAVY
            CROCKETT NATIONAL FOREST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500193

BLOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 NNW POINT BLANK       30.84N  95.25W
05/11/2015                   SAN JACINTO        TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER 980 NORTH ALONG THE TRINITY RIVER. ROAD IS
            PASSABLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500194

BLOOD