Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A LINEAR MCS IS JUST ENTERING THE CWA. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE 12Z AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL BEFORE EXITING SE TX. THINGS GET
MORE COMPLICATED FOR THIS AFTN. SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTN. NOT SURE HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT BUT WILL KEEP HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND SEE
IF CONVECTION CAN REFIRE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL
THREAT. WILL BE TWEAKING POPS BEFORE THE MORNING ZFP IS ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX TONIGHT AND THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER TEMPS AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE IS BULLISH
WITH WINDS AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DEW
PTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S SO HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE AS
PLEASANT AS THE TEMPERATURES. AFTER ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...IT'LL BE NICE TO GET A 5-6 DAY STRETCH
OF NICE WEATHER. MOISTURE RETURN WON'T REALLY GET GOING UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO PULLED RAIN CHANCES FROM NEXT WEEKEND. 43

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS INFLOW INCREASES TOWARD A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY...
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY AT LEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LEAD TO WATER LEVELS FALLING TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 FEET BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE BAYS AND IN THE HOUSTON SHIP
CHANNEL. THE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  60  67  49  72 /  70  40  20  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  70  49  74 /  80  40  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  69  73  56  71 /  80  20  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-272100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
346 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 5 MILES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF AN EDNA TO HUNTSVILLE LINE. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ALSO VERY HIGH SO FLOODING
ISSUES FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. A LARGE
SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST OF ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG
THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-272100-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
346 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HEMPSTEAD               30.09N  96.08W
04/27/2015                   WALLER             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 6 AND IN HEMPSTEAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500154

BLOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
431 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
04/27/2015                   WASHINGTON         TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN IN BRENHAM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500155

BLOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     TSTM WND DMG     14 SSW BRENHAM          29.97N  96.50W
04/27/2015                   AUSTIN             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF INDUSTRY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500156

BLOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
447 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     TSTM WND GST     CONROE                  30.32N  95.47W
04/27/2015  M62 MPH          MONTGOMERY         TX   ASOS

            MEASURED AT KCXO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500157

BLOOD

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