Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
426 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A REMNANT BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY
LIVINGSTON TO COLUMBUS. HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
ALONG THIS FEATURE IN THE PAST HOUR AS SLY LLVL FLOW FROM THE
GULF FEEDS INTO IT. PW'S AROUND 2" ARE IN THE REGION AND UPPER FLOW
IS NOTICEABLY DIFFLUENT OVER SAME BOUNDARY. W/V IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
SOME WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM S
TX. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE THRU THE
MORNING WITH A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR REGENERATING/TRAINING LOCALIZED
CLUSTERS OF RAINFALL - SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. STILL CONTEMPLATING A FFA
AND MIGHT PULL THE TRIGGER LATER THIS MORNING AFTER KEEPING EYE ON TRENDS
FOR A WHILE. GUIDANCE SUGGEST 2-2.5" COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IF IT WERE TO
FALL IN AN HOUR, 2.8-3.3 IN 3 HOURS. THINK WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR
COVERAGE TO FILL IN SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF W/ LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT.

TROF CURRENTLY OVER CA WILL KICK OUT AND INTO NCNTL PLAINS ON TUE
AND ITS REPLACEMENT WILL DROP BACK INTO PLACE MID/LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT H5 RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM MEXICO &
GULF AS THIS OCCURS...STILL ANTICIPATE DAILY SCT SHRA/TSTMS WITH
HEATING.

THINGS GET INTERESTING AGAIN BY THURS AS MOST MODELS (W/ EXCEPTION
OF GFS) BRING A FRONT INTO THE REGION & PROVIDE ANOTHER BOUNDARY
TO WORK WITH. UNSETTLED WX WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND (ESP SUN/MON) AS WESTERN TROF APPROACHES. 47

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING THEM TO
PICK UP AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS PCPN OVER INLAND SE TX BEGINS TO
FILL IN. WILL BE KEEPING THE SCEC UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR TO-
DAY. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGE WITH THE FCST OF MOSTLY LIGHT/MODERATE
WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SE TX EARLY THU. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING A WIND SHIFT FOR THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS
BUT WE COULD SEE A MORE ELY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS DURING THIS TIME-
FRAME. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT COMBINED WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AND A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR ACROSS SE TX THRU THE REST
OF THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ADDING THE MENTION OF VCTS/TEMPOS TO
SITES NORTH OF I-10 WITH AMDS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP WITH MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TONIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  73  85  72  87 /  60  20  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  73  86  73  88 /  60  10  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  77  83  77  85 /  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235-182115-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
405 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
REGION AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAIN NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE WILL AGAIN NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
GROUNDS ARE NEARLY SATURATED AND CANNOT HANDLE MUCH HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY...EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ARE ENCOURAGED THROUGH THE
WEEK.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-182115-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
405 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL PERSIST TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE AGAIN GOING INTO MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ214-236>238-182115-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-MATAGORDA-
405 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HIGHER THAN NORMAL RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG AREA
BEACHES. IF GOING TO THE BEACH SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND WELL
AWAY FROM JETTIES...GROINS AND PIERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS COULD BE AN ISSUE
OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR THEY MIGHT
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.