Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
128 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX SITUATION WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA
AND AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY 81 FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS. MOST OF
THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE BECOMING MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS
SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHER AREAS AND TERMINALS CLL-UTS WITH HEAVIER
IMPACTS BETWEEN 19-22Z. THE LONE STANDOUT IS THE SPC/NCEP 4KM WRF
WHICH REORGANIZES THE LINE AS IT GETS INTO THE CENTRAL CORRIDOR
FROM UTS-IAH AT 21-23Z...BOTH WITH LOWER TO MUCH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE LBX/GLS VICINITY. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS
SHOULD RETURN AND PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FROM AROUND 04Z
THROUGH 14Z THEN BEGIN TO LIFT. DRIER PROFILES ALOFT TOMORROW MAY
BE MORE DRIVEN BY LOCAL INFLUENCES AND HEATING SO WOULD EXPECT
AFTERNOON BEFORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE TO
DEVELOPS.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE HEADING UP THE PIKE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...HAVE INCREASED WESTERN CWA POPS A BIT WHILE
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
BE SAFE OUT THERE! 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  84  70  83  71 /  50  50  30  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  85  72  83  73 /  40  40  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  75  81  75 /  30  30  20  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-142100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
350 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE
REGION WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO REPEAT FLOODING WHEN RAIN
RETURNS. ALTHOUGH EXTREME RAINFALL IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN AN INCH. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL ALSO AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

ADDITIONALLY... AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEK.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-142100-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
350 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH A
LOW POSSIBILITY FOR WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
MARINERS ARE ENOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS
THEY OBSERVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 WSW GANADO            29.03N  96.57W
05/13/2015                   JACKSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD OVER LAKE TEXANA...BETWEEN EDNA AND
            GANADO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500239

DCH