Flash Flood Warning 128, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1021 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC...THE TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 10PM. WHILE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER NIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJOINING GULF WATERS...ANY TORNADIC ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED AS
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
TO BUMP DOWN EVENING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER LAND AND TO
PUT A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
STARTING AT 03Z. WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL WIND GUST REPORTS OF
35-40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT 50 KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015/

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY RAIN WITH MVFR DECKS...FREQUENT PERIODS OF HEAVY
POCKETS OF RAINFALL LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR
CATS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTLINE LATE TOMORROW MORNING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WIND MAGNITUDES OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED EITHER WITHIN POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN BANDING AND/OR DUE TO THE TIGHTER REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRODUCED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW. AS THIS LOW TRAVELS NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST...STRONG WINDS WILL BACK MORE
NORTHWEST AND LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO JUST -RA
OR -SHRA WITH CONTINUED MVFR DECKS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015/

DANGEROUS MAJOR STORM EVENT TO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
EXPECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE SOUTH
TEXAS COAST AND HEAD UP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA'S COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH RECORD BREAKING MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO PARTS OF OUR
AREA AS THE EVENING AND NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE RECEIVE
IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST...
AND SOME MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS MIGHT END UP NEAR THE COAST (COASTAL COUNTIES)
AND ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT (INCLUDING THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS) OF 4 TO 6
INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND AND 6 TO 12 INCHES
SOUTH OF THAT LINE. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. IF THE RAINFALL NUMBERS
END UP THIS HIGH...FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR. BESIDES THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
ARE UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. ONSHORE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
AND OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO
7 AM MONDAY FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD HARRIS
COUNTY TO THIS ADVISORY LATER. LOWERING RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.  42

MARINE...
THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS OR
SO...THAT OF A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
PASSING OFFSHORE NEAR PARALLEL TO OUR COASTLINE THROUGH MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW/TROUGH IS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AND ULTIMATELY...ITS COASTAL AND
MARITIME IMPACTS. THIS FORECAST TAKES THIS LOW/TROUGH CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE TO INDUCE STRONG ALL LOCAL WATER
OVERNIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES THAT WILL BACK TO STRONG OFFSHORE BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW EXITS INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. OF COURSE...WATER RUN-UP WILL CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUES OVER THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE BOLIVAR AND INUNDATE BEACHES
AND BEACH ROADWAYS DOWN THE COAST...FROM GALVESTON ISLAND TO
MATAGORDA COUNTY. THE FORECAST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS (ABOVE MLLW)
DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET...OR AROUND 2
TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES.

BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO LATE
SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT MONDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A PLETHORA
OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO OUR HOME PAGE
AND THE MARINE SECTION TO GATHER THE DETAILS OF THE WHEN AND WHERE OF
ALL HAZARDS...FROM DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST TO THE
ONSET AND DURATION OF DOUBLE DIGIT SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS. BE SAFE OUT THERE! 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015/

AVIATION...
A MESSY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO IFR. BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN EPISODES...GENERALLY LIGHT
RAIN AND CEILINGS THAT WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND LOW END
MVFR. AS A COASTAL LOW RIDES UP ALONG THE COASTLINE...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE JUST-OFF-THE-SURFACE
SOUTHEAST BACKING (NORTH)EAST WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOT MAGNITUDES.
LOWER 2K WIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN 020 AND SFC WIND SHOULD BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE LOWER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE AND ONCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT...HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR WITH -RA TO
CLOSE OUT PERIOD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  70  61  72  61 / 100  80  40  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  72  63  73  62 / 100  90  50  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  77  65  74  66 / 100 100  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-251300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
404 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. THE TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL OVERFLOW
AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 4 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO CLEVELAND LINE WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTH OF THAT LINE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR LOW
LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ALONG THE BAY SHORES INTO
MONDAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-251300-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
404 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
GULF WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
745 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
10/24/2015                   HARRIS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KATY FREEWAY EXIT RAMP TO NORTH FREEWAY TOTAL CLOSURE
            DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500506

BUBBA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1028 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
10/24/2015                   HARRIS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            I-45 AT NORTH SHEPHERD - 2 FEET OF WATER ACROSS ALL
            LANES

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500507

BUBBA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
10/24/2015                   HARRIS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            I-59 NORTHBOUND AT I-610 - TOTAL CLOSURE FOR HIGH WATER
            - FREEWAY TRAFFIC EXITING CAVALCADE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500508

BUBBA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1053 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
10/24/2015                   HARRIS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLAY ROAD AT NORTH ELDRIDGE - HIGH WATER - HOUSTON
            POLICE ON SCENE BLOCKING TRAFFIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500509

BUBBA