Flash Flood Warning 124, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.DANGEROUS MAJOR STORM EVENT TO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE SOUTH
TEXAS COAST AND HEAD UP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA'S COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH RECORD BREAKING MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO PARTS OF OUR
AREA AS THE EVENING AND NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE RECEIVE
IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST...
AND SOME MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS MIGHT END UP NEAR THE COAST (COASTAL COUNTIES)
AND ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT (INCLUDING THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS) OF 4 TO 6
INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND AND 6 TO 12 INCHES
SOUTH OF THAT LINE. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. IF THE RAINFALL NUMBERS
END UP THIS HIGH...FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR. BESIDES THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
ARE UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. ONSHORE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
AND OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO
7 AM MONDAY FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD HARRIS
COUNTY TO THIS ADVISORY LATER. LOWERING RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.  42
&&

.MARINE...
THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS OR
SO...THAT OF A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
PASSING OFFSHORE NEAR PARALLEL TO OUR COASTLINE THROUGH MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW/TROUGH IS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AND ULTIMATELY...ITS COASTAL AND
MARITIME IMPACTS. THIS FORECAST TAKES THIS LOW/TROUGH CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE TO INDUCE STRONG ALL LOCAL WATER
OVERNIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES THAT WILL BACK TO STRONG OFFSHORE BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW EXITS INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. OF COURSE...WATER RUN-UP WILL CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUES OVER THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE BOLIVAR AND INUNDATE BEACHES
AND BEACH ROADWAYS DOWN THE COAST...FROM GALVESTON ISLAND TO
MATAGORDA COUNTY. THE FORECAST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS (ABOVE MLLW)
DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET...OR AROUND 2
TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES.

BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO LATE
SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT MONDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A PLETHORA
OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO OUR HOME PAGE
AND THE MARINE SECTION TO GATHER THE DETAILS OF THE WHEN AND WHERE OF
ALL HAZARDS...FROM DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST TO THE
ONSET AND DURATION OF DOUBLE DIGIT SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS. BE SAFE OUT THERE! 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015/

AVIATION...
A MESSY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO IFR. BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN EPISODES...GENERALLY LIGHT
RAIN AND CEILINGS THAT WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND LOW END
MVFR. AS A COASTAL LOW RIDES UP ALONG THE COASTLINE...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE JUST-OFF-THE-SURFACE
SOUTHEAST BACKING (NORTH)EAST WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOT MAGNITUDES.
LOWER 2K WIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN 020 AND SFC WIND SHOULD BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE LOWER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE AND ONCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT...HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR WITH -RA TO
CLOSE OUT PERIOD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  70  61  72  61 / 100  80  40  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  72  63  73  62 / 100  90  50  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  77  65  74  66 / 100 100  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-251300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
404 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. THE TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL OVERFLOW
AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 4 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO CLEVELAND LINE WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTH OF THAT LINE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR LOW
LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ALONG THE BAY SHORES INTO
MONDAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-251300-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
404 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
GULF WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ236-237-242045-
MATAGORDA TX-BRAZORIA TX-
309 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MATAGORDA AND
SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 307 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS MONITORING WEAK ROTATION IN A
STRONG SHOWER NEAR SARGENT...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FREEPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SWEENY...BRAZORIA AND SOUTHERN WILD PEACH VILLAGE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2886 9550 2882 9563 2905 9575 2910 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 162DEG 23KT 2887 9557

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ213-227-237-242100-
BRAZORIA TX-HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-
333 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA...EASTERN
FORT BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 332 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING WEAK ROTATION IN A
SHOWER NEAR MANVEL...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARLAND...BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...NORTHERN MANVEL...
ASTRODOME AREA...FOURTH WARD...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...GREATER
EASTWOOD...DOWNTOWN HOUSTON...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA...
UNIVERSITY PLACE...AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...GREATER THIRD
WARD...MIDTOWN HOUSTON...MACGREGOR...SECOND WARD...GREATER FIFTH
WARD...SOUTHEASTERN MEMORIAL PARK...NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON AND
GREATER HOBBY AREA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2951 9526 2948 9539 2972 9554 2979 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 157DEG 19KT 2954 9534

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     TORNADO          4 SW BRAZORIA           29.01N  95.62W
10/24/2015                   BRAZORIA           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500498

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
431 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ227-237-242215-
BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
431 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BRAZORIA AND SOUTHEASTERN
FORT BEND COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 429 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING WEAK ROTATION IN STORMS
NEAR BAILEY'S PRAIRIE...AND HOLIDAY LAKES...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN LAKE JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN ANGLETON...WEST COLUMBIA...IOWA
COLONY...HOLIDAY LAKES...BAILEY'S PRAIRIE...BONNEY...BRAZOS BEND
STATE PARK...WILD PEACH VILLAGE AND ROSHARON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY .

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2908 9546 2908 9567 2941 9572 2941 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 179DEG 19KT 2916 9557

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
501 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     WATER SPOUT      JAMAICA BEACH           29.19N  94.98W
10/24/2015                   GALVESTON          TX   PUBLIC

            WATERSPOUT SIGHTED NEAR JAMAICA BEACH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500499

BLOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ226-236-242330-
MATAGORDA TX-WHARTON TX-
558 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MATAGORDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 558 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING ROTATION IN A STRONG
STORM OVER MARKHAM...OR NEAR BAY CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAY CITY...EL CAMPO AND MARKHAM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2893 9589 2887 9608 2919 9628 2929 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 158DEG 15KT 2897 9602

40