Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
957 AM HST TUE OCT 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AS THE ISLANDS REMAIN
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AND
HURRICANE OHO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE FLOW WILL
FOCUS MOST OF THOSE SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
PARTICULARLY FOR MAUI AND BIG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS
COMBINING WITH THE NORTH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO GENERATE
PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND TODAY. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST
TONIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...A DEEP
CLOSED LOW FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED TO IT REACHING THE BIG ISLAND...AND
HURRICANE OHO LOCATED AROUND 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THE COMBINATION OF OHO AND THE HIGH WILL KEEP PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH WINDS TYPICALLY
COMING FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...DEW POINTS WILL BE BIT
LOWER MAINLY ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU.

HURRICANE OHO EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM HAWAII OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOULD NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
STATE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND MAUI RESULTING IN POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY AS OHO PASSES BY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE ALOHA STATE WILL MOVE CLOSER
TO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO A TYPICAL
TRADE DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO PERSIST WITH RAINFALL FOCUSED OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD TREND DRIER AND
MORE STABLE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND HURRICANE OHO
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP A BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SOME TEMPORARY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHTO IN PASSING SHRA. OTHERWISE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN
MOLOKAI LATER TODAY...BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND SOUTH THRU
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE OHO COULD WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL THAT MAY
IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH SOUTH AND EAST
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE SHADOWED
FROM THE SWELL.

ELSEWHERE...THE CURRENT NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO
DECLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL REINFORCING NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELL WILL MOVE IN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER MODERATE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...JELSEMA