Small Craft Advisory 1, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1020 AM HST THU JAN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL QUICKLY CHANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN...
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL PASS OVER KAUAI FRIDAY EVENING... OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY
FRIDAY NIGHT... AND THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST... AWAY FROM THE STATE... AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTH ARE PRODUCING LIGHT WEST
WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ALONG WITH THE WEST WINDS THIS MORNING. WARNING LEVEL
WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MAINTAINS POSITION NORTH OF THE STATE.

A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR MIDWAY ATOLL WILL BRING A
DRASTIC CHANGE TO ISLAND WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
STATE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WIDESPREAD AREAS ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING FOR
THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WINDWARD AREAS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AS THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACCELERATE DOWN THE MOUNTAIN TERRAIN. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE DEEPENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
WITH IT HEAVY RAINS... THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING NEAR 25 MPH
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS LIMITED...
BUT NOT RULED OUT... AS INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS MOVE QUICKLY
OVERHEAD. THE LARGEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE WINDS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE FORCED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL REACH OAHU FRIDAY EVENING... MAUI COUNTY
FRIDAY NIGHT.... AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SUMMITS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 100 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT REACHES THE BIG ISLAND.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOW
THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH ONLY LIMITED
SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK OF 3500 TO 6000 FT STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDS
ACROSS ALL THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THEN MORE VFR CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OTHERWISE
PREVAILING VFR ALL AREAS. NO AIRMETS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON REGARDING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE WILL BE THE CHIEF CONCERNS. UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE AND
ICING ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
A MIXTURE OF LONG-PERIOD AND SHORT-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS...FROM
BOTH DISTANT AND RELATIVELY CLOSE SOURCES...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STORMY SURF ALONG MOST NORTH FACING SHORES. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH...ELEVATED SURF ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION...
THE ELEVATED SEAS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WINDWARD HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH
SWELLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WINDS WILL REACH THE SCA CRITERIA IN SOME
AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SHORT TO MODERATE PERIOD NORTH AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE SURF. A NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH DETAILS REMAINING UNCERTAIN AS THEY
DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT MAY
DEVELOP NEAR...OR NORTH...OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
A BEDAL...AVIATION