High Surf Advisory 47, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST WED SEP 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT A BIT TODAY...BUT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER WINDWARD AREAS. A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE WET AND WINDY WEATHER STARTING
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ISLANDS IS
MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT TODAY AS
THE CLOUD BAND DEPARTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP WINDWARD AREAS A BIT SHOWERY BUT LEEWARD AREAS
WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH ALOFT FAR NORTH OF THE
AREA DIGGING SOUTH RAPIDLY. A SURFACE LOW WILL CUT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ONE OR
MORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES MAY DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG 15N.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST MAY PULL
MOISTURE UP OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. ONE OR MORE
TROPICAL CYCLONES COULD EVEN MOVE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SO...THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BECOME VERY
UNSETTLED STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE DETAILS OF THIS
COMPLEX PATTERN REMAIN UNCLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
TURB...SO AIRMET TANGO WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TURB S THRU W OF
THE MTN OF ALL THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND PROBABLY
LONGER. A BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN PRODUCING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN CLD AND SHRA OVER WINDWARD AREAS AND AIRMET
SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR ALL ISLANDS. COND ARE EXPECT
TO IMPROVE TODAY AS THE SHOWER BAND CLEARS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
BUT THE SCA WILL LIKELY STAY UP FOR THE WINDY ZONES AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI...AND MAY NEED TO STAY UP FOR SOME OTHER AREAS AS
WELL.

THE BREEZY TRADES WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES TODAY AND KEEP THE SURF ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK.
A NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF TO NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.

&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM TODAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY FOR THE KAUAI...
KAIWI...PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS...KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS...OAHU LEEWARD WATERS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

DONALDSON