Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1224 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATER SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
18Z UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO UPGRADE GALES TO STORM WARNINGS FOR
BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY TIME BUT WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN
THIS YEAR WITH LOW DOWN TO 25 BELOW NORTH AND NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
COAST. WITH CALM WINDS... WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE NOT NEEDED
HOWEVER EXPOSED SKIN WILL STILL RISK FREEZING. OVERALL LEANED ONCE
AGAIN A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOSTLY ACCOUNTING FOR
THE ISOLATED VALLEYS WHICH EASILY RADIATE ONCE WINDS CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN HUDSON BAY WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND
APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE LIGHT OVERRUNNING TYPE
PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT
UNFOLDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MUCH BETTER CONSENSUS ON THIS
SYSTEM NOW... WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AT LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. THIS STORM
MAY PERFORM A LOOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

ON AVERAGE...THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SCOOTED A LITTLE BIT
FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST MAX QPF
AND SNOW AXES HAVE ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD ONTO THE WINTER STORM WATCH
THERE. HAVE INCLUDED WESTERN AND NORTHERN NH IN THE WATCH AS
WELL...MAINLY DUE TO VERY HIGH SNOW/LIQ RATIOS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS PROGGING QPF VALUES AS
MUCH AS A HALF INCH UP TOWARD COOS COUNTY.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST MESOSCALE
BANDING WILL MAKE IT AS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD STILL EXISTS IN THE
MODEL SUITE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING
THE INTENSE UPPER LOW DIVING IN AND THE RESULTING DOUBLE/LOOPING
SFC LOW PRESSURE STRUCTURE. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY CAN BE SEEN IN THE 03Z SREF PLUME MEMBERS AT
PORTLAND...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 INCHES TO ALMOST
40. THIS IS WHY THE WATCH REMAINS UP AND WARNINGS WILL WAIT.

HOWEVER...

REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS...CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHOULD GO DOWN HILL VERY QUICKLY LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS BOMBOGENESIS OCCURS OFFSHORE. THE
RESULT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH
NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 50KT VERY MUCH WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
WHEN FACTORING IN A PRE-EXISTING FLUFFY SNOWPACK...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL...STRONG WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES...THE RESULT SHOULD
BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH LOTS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
THEREFORE...THE BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE INTERIOR YORK COUNTY MAINE AS WELL AS
STRAFFORD AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

WE HOLD SOME CONCERN FOR POWER OUTAGES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT GUSTS EXISTS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL ALL DAY SUNDAY...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 30 BELOW BY EARLY EVENING...EVEN AFTER THE
SNOW HAS STOPPED FALLING IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE...PEOPLE NEED TO
BE PREPARED TO SAFELY KEEP THEMSELVES WARM IN THE EVENT THAT POWER
GOES OUT.

THE STORM SHOULD DEPART SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF US FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... FRIDAY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25KTS AT ALL SITES
BEFORE DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECREASE TO MVFR IN SHSN FOR LEB AND HIE BY
MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY... WITH THE REST OF THE LOCATIONS FOLLOWING
SOON THEREAFTER. IFR IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IN
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS GUSTING 40-50 KT SUNDAY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS FORESEEN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING
IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS AND SCA ON THE BAYS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A
PROBLEM THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AS VERY COLD AIR WILL NOT REQUIRE MUCH
WIND TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

LONG TERM...STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 48 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE COASTLINES FOR THE MORNING  HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY. TIDES
AS ASTRONOMICALLY LOW... 9.2FT AT FORT POINT NH AT 723AM AND
9.63FT AT 714AM AT PORTLAND... HOWEVER A 1 TO 2 FT STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES UP TO 20FT TO CREATE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION CONCERNS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MEZ014-018>028.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ001>009.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

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