Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... WITH
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CELLS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EASTWARD TO MID COAST MAINE COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT
TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD TOUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK AMPLIFICATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL SEE SEVERAL
WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA...MOSTLY FOCUSED AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A LOT OF
CHC POPS...ESECIALLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO DAY IS LIKELY TO BE A
WASHOUT...AND AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST.

SPECIFICALLY A COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATE THU AND WILL PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY THU AFT INTO EVE. PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD START
THE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
PWM...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 80. INLAND AREAS TO THE S AND
W OF PORTLAND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE T/TD DROP OFF SOME ON FRIDAY...AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE S...AND LOW 80S IN THE MTNS AND ON THE COAST.

GENERALLY HAVE AFTERNOON CHC POPS IN THE N AND SLY POPS TOWARD THE
COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THRU THE ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THINGS WARM UP A BIT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z THU/...SCT MVFR IN SHRA WITH BRIEF LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. VFR WED WITH LCL MVFR PSBL
AFT 18Z IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD. AREAS
MVFR AFT 00Z THU IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND
12Z THU.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU-SUN. TSRA A GOOD BET THU
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM
VLY FOG THU NIGHT...BUT SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...WEAK FLOW WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THU THRU SUN...AND
KEEP SEAS/WINDS COMFORTABLY BLO SCA LVLS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SW FLOW SURGES A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND COULD APPROACH SCA BRIEFLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SCHWIBS/CEMPA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028-NHZ001>005-291000-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-
KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE THRU EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE IN MAINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ018-023-NHZ006>015-291000-
INTERIOR YORK-COASTAL YORK-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-
BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BUT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>154-291000-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THRU EARLY EVENING.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESES STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
PORTLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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