Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
337 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR... SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AS THE STORMS RIDE ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE LOW
LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS WILL ADD A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 11 PM FOR
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY IN MAINE.

EXPECT STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
MOVE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...
BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS TO AN END. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE SLOW IN ERODING OVER COASTAL MAINE BUT
IT WILL BE GENERALLY A DRIER DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN.

WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE EXPECT A COOLER NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD GENERALLY A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO A LACK OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
SHOULD BE HIGHLIGHTED.

A SHORT WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THEN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THIS WILL MEAN COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO
PERSIST WITH DRY CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE COOL AIR MASS ALOFT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANTLY
COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH
GET A GOOD SOAKING DURING THE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADS TO LIGHT WINDS AND
FAIRLY CALM SEAS.

LONG TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... KIMBLE
LONG TERM... MARINE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

MEZ018-023-NHZ001>015-201930-
INTERIOR YORK-COASTAL YORK-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ153-MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028-201930-
CASCO BAY-NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY AND WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>152-154-201930-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PENOBSCOT BAY...THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA...THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
349 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HAIL             3 SE THE BROAD          43.57N  71.29W
07/19/2015  E0.70 INCH       BELKNAP            NH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RATTLESNAKE ISLAND

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1500088

MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
356 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NHZ008-009-192045-
MERRIMACK NH-BELKNAP NH-
356 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  MERRIMACK COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
  BELKNAP COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TILTON-NORTHFIELD...MOVING TO THE
  SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
  WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LACONIA...
  FRANKLIN...
  TILTON-NORTHFIELD...
  GILMANTON...
  AND GILFORD.

LAT...LON 4344 7172 4360 7162 4353 7127 4330 7139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 293DEG 19KT 4349 7158

MBC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             5 N ALTON               43.52N  71.22W
07/19/2015  E0.88 INCH       BELKNAP            NH   PUBLIC

            CAMP DEER RUN

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1500089

KIMBLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
405 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             3 N ALTON               43.50N  71.22W
07/19/2015  E0.70 INCH       BELKNAP            NH   PUBLIC

            EAST ALTON GENERAL STORE

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1500090

KIMBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NHZ006-010-192030-
SOUTHERN CARROLL NH-STRAFFORD NH-
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
  STRAFFORD COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OSSIPEE...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20
  MPH.

* NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
  WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OSSIPEE...
  WOLFEBORO...
  WAKEFIELD...
  BROOKFIELD...
  AND TUFTONBORO.

LAT...LON 4347 7101 4353 7117 4354 7116 4356 7120
      4355 7121 4356 7123 4357 7126 4362 7132
      4376 7124 4369 7098 4357 7097 4354 7095
      4354 7096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 293DEG 19KT 4365 7120

MBC