Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
242 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK...SLOWLY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINIMAL DYNAMICS WITH TROUGH CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE...HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT TO
PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND SLOW MOVING NATURE TO THE PRECIP MAY
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BOUNDARY'S CONTINUE TO FORM AS
WELL...THEREFORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL FORM ACROSS THESE
REGIONS.

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW INDIVIDUAL CELLS BECOMING
EMBEDDED IN A LARGER SCALE MASS OF RAIN TOWARDS THIS EVENING. THE
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND DIURNAL HEATING CEASES.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE INLAND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HHH...HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS H8
TEMPERATURES REACH +16C. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THAT TIME...WITH THE MEAN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. DEW POINT VALUES
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY
HIGH.

EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
THEIR DEW POINTS SO READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN EAST COAST RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMER ON MONDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CAP ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN A FEW
DEGREES MORE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WE WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEEK WHICH COULD SIGNAL A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALSO...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL LEAD TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SOME FOG AND HAZE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID AIR CROSSES THE REGION.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CANNON/LULOFS
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>015-161900-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
248 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>154-161900-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
248 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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