Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
105 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AND IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY FOR NOW. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERNA AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SET FORECAST UP
BEFORE THINGS GET BUSY WITH TSTMS. AT THIS TIME CU FIELD IN NRN
NEW ENGLAND IS QUICKLY BECOMING AGITATED...AND BANDS OF TSTMS ARE
ALREADY IN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL CARRY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT...GRADUALLY BUILDING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH
A WIND THREAT. THETA-E AXIS IS BUILDING INTO SRN NH AND FAR SWRN
ME...THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST TODAY.
LIKEWISE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX WILL EXIST
IN THESE REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
S OF THE MTNS. DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE N...THOUGH MID
60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THOSE AREAS INTO THE 80S.
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG NEAR THE
COAST. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEAR 90 KT UPPER JET.

THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COAST...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATE NEWD. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED WITH
ALL MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND LOWERED
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AID IN DISCRETE CELLS POSSESSING A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ANY MARINE/SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A NON-
ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RNFL IN STRONGER STORMS.

FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...THE
FRONT WILL INCH EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS YIELD CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR. EXPECT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW..DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
500 MB PATTERN STARTS WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE SRN CONUS
AND MEAN TOUGHING IN THE NERN US. WHILE THERE IS SOME FLATTENING
OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THE TROUGH TO HOLD TO SOME DEGREE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE HOT AIR TO OUT WEST BUT SURPRISINGLY THE
AIR IN THE TROUGH IS NOT ALL COOL. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICALLY...WED NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER SFC AIR IN NW FLOW...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA IN
THE MTNS. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
MUDDLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW QUITE
DIVERGENT SOLNS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE GEMS COMPLETE MISS OF A
COASTAL LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...TO THE EUROS WINTER-LIKE COASTAL
BOMB. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS LOOK TO BE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE SCALING
ISSUES AND AT TIMES DO NOT MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST CHC POPS SAT-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHC SAT
NIGHT...AS THIS IS CLOSEST TO WHAT MIGHT CALLED MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND AGREES WITH SUPERBLEND. SEE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PMDEPD/ FOR A GOOD EXPLANATION OF THE MODEL ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...ONE THING TO TAKE HOME ABOUT THE MODELS
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IS THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY PICKING UP
ON SOMETHING...BUT HOW THAT PANS OUT AND WHAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE
NEED TO BEEN FROM A SHORTER TIMEFRAME THAN DAYS 5 AND 6.

TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 IN INTERIOR SW ME AND SRN NH...WITH OVERNIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
PLAYS...AND ASSUMING IT AMOUNTS MORE TO SHOWERS AND SOME COOLER
N-NE FLOW...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT WARM UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 02Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. AREAS
OF MVFR WED IN SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB WED AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THIS EVENING. SCA WAS DROPPED WITH NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...THU AND FRI WILL SEE CONDS COMFORTABLY BELOW SCA
LVLS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...KIMBLE/MARINE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1220 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>015-051630-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
1220 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>154-051630-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
1220 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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