High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
954 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH FOCUS
ON APPROACHING HEAVY RNFL EVENT.

PREVIOUSLY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT WILL SHARPEN UP TO OUR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY ALLOW
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO ENTER SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESEMBLE MORE OF A WINTERTIME SYSTEM
WITH THE DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS AT WORK.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY A STRONG EASTERLY CONVEYOR BELT OF
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD AND OVERRUN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY WINTER-LIKE COLD AIR DAMMING. THE 925MB AND 850MB
U-WIND ANOMALIES BASED ON THE SREF AND GEFS REACH +5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS SUNDAY MORNING WHICH IS EXTREME. THEREFORE...THE
INFLOW WILL BE VERY STRONG AND CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWAT ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 SD.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOW-END ADVISORY-CRITERIA WINDS ON
THE COAST SUNDAY DUE TO THIS EASTERLY JET. FOR NOW...HAVE GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH FOR THE COAST.

HAVE HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS /MAINLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST FACING SLOPES/ WHERE UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EXCELLENT. THE WATCH AREA HAS ALSO HAD
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK
FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SO RIVER MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL.
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER AND FLOOD WATCH ELSEWHERE...BUT SINCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LOW WITH RIVER LEVELS ALSO RUNNING LOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERSISTING
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING.

THE MAIN THRUST OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE ON OUT AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CATEGORICAL LIGHTER RAINS OR SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECOND FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE VERY NICE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
NICE SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT ON THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH, WITH THE GFS DRY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO IFR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE COAST...EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 KT
SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR MONDAY AND VFR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
FOR SUNDAY WHERE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10 FT
ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS SEAS REMAIN HIGH. ANOTHER SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NHZ001>005.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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