High Surf Advisory 21, NWS Guam

188 
WHMY40 PGUM 161918
CFWMY

CFWMY

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
352 AM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

...LARGE SWELLS REMAINING FROM TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SURF...

.LARGE SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF THE MARIANAS .

GUZ001>004-170500-
/O.CON.PGUM.SU.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-150317T0500Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
352 AM CHST TUE MAR 17 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CHST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WAVES AND SURF...SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS 7 TO 9 FEET ON NORTH
  FACING REEFS AND 9 TO 12 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS TODAY.

* TIMING...SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
  HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LARGE WAVES WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES AND
REEFS IN THE ADVISORY AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FACING NORTH AND
EAST...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION.

&&

SIMPSON

$$

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
612 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST
OF GUAM AT 03Z. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS INITIAL
GFS MODEL FIELDS...ALL SUGGEST BAVI POSSESSES A SHEARED STRUCTURE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. MID-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST TO THE EAST OF TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHTNING VIGOROUSLY
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY AND VELOCITY
RETURNS ON THE WSR-88D INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF BAVI IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 55 KNOTS. CENTROID OF HIGHEST WINDS
SEEMS TO BE COLLOCATED BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BAVI
SEEMS TO BE TRACKING FAIRLY STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
AROUND 16 KNOTS. LATEST WARNING WALKS THE TRACK OF BAVI SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD TO NEAR ROTA AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE BEEFS UP WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH BAVI
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST WINDS AND DEEP
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. FORECAST WINDS
TONIGHT FOR GUAM AND ROTA REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE...WHILE THOSE FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN ARE NOW ON THE
HIGH END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR TROPICAL STORMS. HAVE MENTIONED GUSTS
UP TO TO 70 MPH TONIGHT ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN. HAVE INCLUDED
NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN BUT HAVE KEPT
SHOWER COVERAGE ON GUAM AND ROTA SCATTERED WITH NO MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN. STILL EXPECT WEATHER TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY FOR ALL
FORECAST ZONES ON MONDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET TRADE-WIND PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM REMAINS TROPICAL STORM BAVI. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS IN THE TINIAN AND SAIPAN ZONES WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER SEAS
AND SURF. LATEST HLSPQ1 COVERS THIS VIA SURF UP TO 18 FEET AND
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE NORTHEAST OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS COULD GRADUALLY PUSH INTO MAJURO WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT BUT LEFT ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR NOW AS MODELS SHOW
ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGING SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST
EAST OF KOSRAE. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KOSRAE
WATERS TONIGHT. IN THE LONG TERM...TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
STATES AS WELL AS MAJURO SO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO BE
CONSIDERED AROUND THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS
OF MAJURO TONIGHT BEFORE SURF SUBSIDES BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS CHUUK IN A RELATIVELY DRY SLOT SOUTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM BAVI. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARD CHUUK
WATERS FROM THE SOUTH BUT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF YAP STATE
AND PALAU ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. MODERATE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH SOUTHWEST TO EAST BY
THURSDAY AND BECOME LIGHT AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ON NORTH FACING
REEFS OF YAP AND KOROR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. THE SWELL
DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY CAUSING SURF
TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON EAST FACING REEFS ON MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

MCELROY/WILLIAMS