Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Guam

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
626 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS TYPHOON DOLPHIN A LITTLE EAST OF
THE MARIANAS MOVING WEST. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 28 TO 42 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 10 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS THE MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL AT 13 TO 16 FEET. NONETHELESS...
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD DRAMATICALLY AS TYPHOON DOLPHIN MOVES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS. SO FAR RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN A BIT
UNDERWHELMING AT 0.03 INCHES SO FAR AT THE GUAM AIRPORT. AFTER
DOLPHIN PASSES...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY. FOR THE MOST
PART LOOKS LIKE A TRADE-WIND REGIME BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) JUST HAD ITS CENTER APPEAR ON THE GUAM
RADAR. IT IS LOCATED AT 12.8N AND 148.2E. IT IS MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 MPH. TYPHOON
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN AS
WELL AS SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAJURO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWEST
NORTH OF KOSRAE. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
DISTURBANCE AND REMAIN NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KOSRAE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN
MICRONESIA FROM SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP TO TYPHOON DOLPHIN. A BAND OF
CONVERGENCE SOUTHWEST OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CHUUK
AND YAP TODAY. THERE WERE A FEW MORE SHOWERS NEAR YAP SO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THERE. MODELS SHOW THIS BAND
OF SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR YAP AND CHUUK THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS PALAU SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS CHUUK
AND ARE NO LONGER A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. SATELLITE ALIMETERY AND
WAVE WATCH MODEL DATA AGREE THAT THE SURF SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ001>004.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

STANKO/ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT