Wind Advisory 19, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

250 
WWUS72 KGSP 281403
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
903 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...INCREASING WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGE
TOPS...BUT GUSTY WINDS COULD MIX DOWN TOWARD THE VALLEYS IN ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ070-071-082-SCZ004>014-019-281515-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FG.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-151228T1400Z/
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-UNION-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...
TOCCOA...ROYSTON...LAVONIA...FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...
HARTWELL...REED CREEK...ELBERTON...GASTONIA...MONROE...TRINITY...
INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...SENECA...EASLEY...CLEMSON...TAYLORS...
GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...
CLINTON...UNION...CHESTER...GREAT FALLS
903 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

FOG WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...BUT WITH VISIBILITY STILL REDUCED TO BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE MILE AT TIMES.

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-282215-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.151228T1800Z-151229T1200Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...MARS HILL...
MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ROBBINSVILLE...
CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH
903 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
  WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA..

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
  MAXIMIZING OVERNIGHT. THE WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN DECREASING
  TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  MPH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS.

* IMPACTS...THESE WIND GUSTS COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES AND 
  POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

192 
WWUS72 KGSP 281947
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS...BUT GUSTY
WINDS COULD MIX DOWN TOWARD THE VALLEYS IN ANY HEAVY SHOWERS.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-290400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-151229T1200Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...MARS HILL...
MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ROBBINSVILLE...
CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH
247 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA..

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
  MAXIMIZING OVERNIGHT. THE WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN DECREASING
  TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  MPH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS.

* IMPACTS...THESE WIND GUSTS COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES AND 
  POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

351 
WWUS72 KGSP 290257
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS...BUT GUSTY
WINDS COULD MIX DOWN TOWARD THE VALLEYS IN ANY HEAVY SHOWERS.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-291100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-151229T1200Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...MARS HILL...
MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ROBBINSVILLE...
CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH
957 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA..

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL PEAK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BEGINNING TO
  DECREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ON RIDGETOPS.

* IMPACTS...THESE WIND GUSTS COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES AND 
  POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
WIMBERLEY

312 
WWUS72 KGSP 290829
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-290930-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-151229T1200Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
329 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE ADVISORY
AREA THEREFORE CANCELLATION IS WARRANTED.

$$

CDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ATOP THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRONG H5 VORTEX MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
TX...WHILE A 590DM RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENSIS BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOSED
H5 LOW PREVAILS OVER THE ARKLATEX...WHILE A 1042MB RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS ONTARIO.  DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SFC WAVE EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
JUST BEHIND.  MEANWHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EAST EVENTUALLY NOSING DOWN THE LEE SIDE
OF THE APPS YIELDING A BRIEF CAD WEDGE.

PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL PRESENT A SERIES
OF HAZARDS AS ALL FEATURES BEGIN TO INTERACT.  AS THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY INTRUDES THROUGH WESTERN NC AND INTO UPSTATE SC THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS PROBABLE.  HOWEVER SOUNDINGS
DO FAVOR A RATHER STRONG WARM NOSE IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY DEEPER/STRONGER CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW OF WHICH BEING STRONG GIVEN NEARLY 40-50KTS
OF BULK SHEAR.  THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND AN APPROACHING H85 JET MAX THIS EVENING...COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS
OF THE WESTERN NC MTNS.  WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY STARTING AT
1PM TODAY THROUGH 8AM TUESDAY TO HIGHLIGHT GUSTS ABOVE 3500FT
NEARING 45-50MPH.

LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...AS DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
MOIST ADVECTION PREVAILS TONIGHT...ANY WEDGE INTRUSION SHOULD
BE QUICKLY FORCED BACK NORTH WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE SWEEPING
BY TO THE NORTHWEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING.
IN RESPONSE...MODELS FAVOR AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE NAM/GFS PWAT ANOMALIES EXCEED 3-4 STD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASED UPSLOPING
POTENTIAL COULD YIELD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MTNS.
THEREFORE GIVEN 3/6HR FF GUIDANCE IN THAT RANGE AND RIVER LEVELS
ALREADY BEING ELEVATED...A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED AND WILL BE
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT FURTHER RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND/OR ISOLATED MUDSLIDE CONCERNS
GIVEN RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 5-7 DAYS.

AS FOR THE FCST...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST/SETTLED...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FAVORED INTO
LATE MORNING UNDER LOW OVERCAST SKIES.  POPS WILL INITIATE AT LIKELY
LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE THIS
MORNING WHERE SHRA CURRENTLY RESIDES...BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING
OUT AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT WHEREBY CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE FAVORED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...ON THE SYNOPTIC SIDE...STACKED MIDLEVEL
LOW WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS WE START THE SHORT
TERM....WITH OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES DOWN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE START
OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE...BUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
INCREASE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NOT
REALLY ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH
THE AREA. ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THE FORMER COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...FINALLY PUSHING TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS AND
IMPACTS. OF SECONDARY CONCERN IS THUNDER POTENTIAL BOTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE FORMER...SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HOW THE NAM AND GFS HANDLE THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SCOURING OUT ALL SBCAPE BUT THE NAM A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND KEEPING 500-750 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE
UPSTATE. SPC ONLY HAS GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...HAVE ONLY
ADVERTISED ISOLATED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY AS THETA-ES
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FORMER COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR TO THE AREA AS WELL. BEST SBCAPE VALUES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT BUT THINK THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AS BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER
SUPPORT REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ 35-40KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500 OR SO J/KG
SBCAPE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...BUT WE DO GET A BREAK
FROM THE RECORD WARMTH AS HIGHS SHOULD RANGE ONLY /SARCASM/ 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VS. THE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE THAT WE HAVE HAD
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE! THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH DIVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...AND
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND SERVES TO
DEEPEN THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL RIDGE INTO OUR
AREA...BRINGING SOME MUCH-NEEDED TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING. NOT REALLY A NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION...STILL MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH OOMPH LEFT TO GET SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOT ADVERTISED THIS IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT FINALLY REACHING FREEZING AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AND POSSIBLY SOME TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A COUPLE OF INTERESTING
ITEMS TO NOTE...THE LAST TIME THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OUR THREE
CLIMATE SITES /KAVL KGSP KCLT/ WAS BELOW FREEZING WAS 12/20. AS
THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD...HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY ACTUALLY DROP BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATING FEATURE WITH
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC TAF CYCLE AHEAD AS TAF INITIALIZES
WITH LIFR CIGS AND LOWERING MVFR VISB AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SETTLES.  MODELS DO NOT FAVOR MUCH IMPROVEMENT GIVEN WEAK
WAA/UPGLIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IFR CIGS WERE INCLUDED
AROUND MID/LATE MORNING AS SOME LIFTING IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AN ARRIVING WEDGE.  THE WEDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN
NC PIEDMONT AROUND MID AFTERNOON THUS YIELDING BACKED NE FLOW
AROUND 6-10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTING POSSIBLE BENEATH IFR CIGS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS UPGLIDE ATOP THE INTRUDING WEDGE
BOUNDARY YIELDS SCT SHRA...THUS INCLUDED LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE
WITH REDUCED MVFR VISB TO ACCOMPANY THE A FORE MENTIONED IFR CIGS.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE AS LOW CIGS/VISB
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY
MIXED AND THEREBY INHIBITING ANY DENSE FOG ISSUES...HOWEVER
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY FOR KAVL/KHKY...ALL WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.
AS FOR THE SC SITES...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER AND
COULD AFFECT EACH LOCATION AT TIMES...THEREFORE OPTED TO PREVAIL
3/4SM AT KGSP/KGMU...AND 1/2SM AT KAND WHERE AMPLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE HARTWELL COULD AID LOWER VISB.  OTHERWISE...SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS AT ALL SITES AHEAD
OF THE WEDGE ARRIVAL...HOWEVER MODELS DO NOT FAVOR SUCH AND DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OPTED TO KEEP CIGS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BACK NE AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...EXCEPT
FOR AT KAND AS THE WEDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH THAT FAR SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
THE AREA SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND
ON BEFORE WE FINALLY BEGIN DRYING OUT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     LOW   51%     LOW   51%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH  80%     MED   60%     LOW   41%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   78%     MED   75%     LOW   59%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   74%     LOW   48%     HIGH  90%
KAND       MED   72%     LOW   54%     LOW   58%     HIGH  82%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH TWO
SEPARATE WAVES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN SC UPSTATE STARTING TONIGHT
WHERE DEEP SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL.  PWAT
ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 3 STD DEVS COMBINED WITH AMPLE UPSLOPING
POTENTIAL SETS THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SLUG OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH SATURATED SOILS IN
PLACE FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN...THIS SECOND WAVE COULD
RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH NEW WPC QPF VALUES OF APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES IN JUST A 6-HR
WINDOW FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY...AND WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH IN THE 6
HOURS BOTH PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING.

STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FOR THE TWO WAVES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.5-3+
INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH TOTALS OF OVER 5
INCHES ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE
OPTED TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH EVERYWHERE THAT IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
>2.5 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECASTS
HAVE THE SW MOUNTAINS IN MODERATE RISK AND MOST OF THE AREA IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 1...THE SW NC MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE GA AND
MOST OF THE SC COUNTIES IN SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2...AND JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. SOME AREAS IN
THE MOUNTAINS THAT ARE TYPICALLY LOWER DUE TO RAIN SHADOW EFFECTS
/SUCH AS PORTIONS OF BUNCOMBE AND MADISON COUNTIES/ PROBABLY WON'T
SEE THE SAME ISSUES BUT IT IS EASIER TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS...HAVE TAKEN THE FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY BUT CAN EASILY CANCEL EARLY IF NECESSARY.

WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ALREADY IN PLACE...THESE TWO ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE BOTH A FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OPTED TO
USE FLOOD WATCH WORDING AND WILL EMPHASIZE BOTH IMPACTS...INCLUDING
MUDSLIDES/DEBRIS FLOWS...IN THE TEXT OF THE WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MONDAY DECEMBER 28...

 AVL   73    1889
 CLT   77    1971
 GSP   75    1971

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MONDAY DEC 28...

 AVL   53    1982
 CLT   56    2008
 GSP   62    1982

DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY DECEMBER 29...

 AVL   74    1984
 CLT   74    1984
 GSP   72    1984

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY DEC 29...

 AVL   56    1954
 CLT   61    1954
 GSP   54    1996

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ070-071-
     082.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-010-011.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ004>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...CDG
HYDROLOGY...TDP/CDG
CLIMATE...TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-282100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
357 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A COUPLE OF MORE
ROUNDS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...ONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO NEARLY SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH RIVER
LEVELS...SOME FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK