Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2015
Wind Advisory 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Nov 17, 2015, 3:45 AM EST for 10 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Nov 17, 2015, 6:00 PM EST. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 17, 2015, 3:45 AM EST (08:45 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 17, 2015, 6:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Nov 18, 2015, 6:00 PM EST
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Swain County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 271 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3065 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 53 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
752 WWUS72 KGSP 170845 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 345 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY IN AFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .WINDS WILL INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-171700- /O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.151117T2300Z-151118T2300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA... HIGHLANDS 345 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FEET. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOILS COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...POSSIBLY ON POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ 07
6 follow-up statements
147 WWUS72 KGSP 171533 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1033 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY IN AFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .WINDS WILL INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-172345- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.151117T2300Z-151118T2300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA... HIGHLANDS 1033 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FEET. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOILS COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...POSSIBLY ON POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ NED
288 WWUS72 KGSP 172149 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 449 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY IN AFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .WINDS WILL INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-180400- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.151117T2300Z-151118T2300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA... HIGHLANDS 449 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FEET. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOILS COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...POSSIBLY ON POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$
958 WWUS72 KGSP 172311 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 611 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY IN AFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .WINDS WILL INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-180715- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151118T2300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA... HIGHLANDS 611 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FEET. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOILS COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...POSSIBLY ON POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$
364 WWUS72 KGSP 180654 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 154 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY IN AFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .WINDS WILL INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-181700- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151118T2300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA... HIGHLANDS 154 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE 3500 FEET... * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FEET. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD EXPERINCE EVEN HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS. * IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOILS COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...POSSIBLY ON POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ 07
752 WWUS72 KGSP 181644 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1144 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY IN AFFECT TODAY... .STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TODAY. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-182300- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151118T2300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA... HIGHLANDS 1144 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE 3500 FEET... * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FEET. * WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE EVEN HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS. * IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOILS COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...POSSIBLY ON POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ NED
302 WWUS72 KGSP 182254 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 554 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-190000- /O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151118T2300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK... CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA... HIGHLANDS 554 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE 3500 FEET... WIND SPEEDS PEAKED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES AND UNDER ANY SHOWERS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 6 PM. $$ HG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 17, 3:20 AM EST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 17, 3:20 AM EST, 25 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS. A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM GA TO PA WILL LINK UP
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING QUEBEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN STRONG...MOIST
GULF FLOW UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THIS MOIST FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE
SE FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...WHERE NC...SC...AND GA MEET.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3500 FEET...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
ADVANCE OF A STRONG LONG WAVE SYSTEM WITH MAIN COLD FRONT REACHING
THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL PRECIP
EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTED WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE
NAM IS THE SLOWEST. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE OTHERS. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WED MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...CONTINUING WED NITE THEN TAPERING OFF
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THU MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THU NITE. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE DAY
WED...THE WIND ADV WILL GO THRU THEN AS WELL.
DESPITE THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SEVERAL FEATURES ARE
COMING TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. PW VALUES WILL BE 3
SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL SLY AND ELY WIND FLOW WILL BE UP TO 3
SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER JET WILL BE UP TO 2 SIGMAS ABOVE
NORMAL AS WELL. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CREATE STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. WPC HAS AN AREA OF 5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ALONG THE GA/NC/SC BORDER AREA WITH A SWATH OF 2.5
INCHES UP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BORDER AREA AND UP ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WET SOILS...FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN. WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED ONE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL STILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT. 0-1 KM HELICITY
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONG AND VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS. THE GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SFC WAVE
OR H925/H85 LOW TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. AS USUAL...
INSTABILITY REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR. ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...VALUES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 200 J/KG.
SHERB VALUES ABOVE 1 DO MOVE TOWARD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST ON WED...
BUT THEN DROP BELOW 1 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THRU WED NITE.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE FLOODING WILL BE THE GREATER THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...MDL GUIDANCE IS IN FLUX FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRY. NOW...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...THE
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WETTER. ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT OVER THE AREA
THEN BECOMES AMPLIFIED AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST
AND CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SAT NITE AND SUN.
THE GFS IS NOT AS DEEP AND FASTER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF. HOWEVER...
THIS IS A CHANGE FOR THE ECMWF. THE GFS QUICKLY MOVES THE LOW EAST
ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.
AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRI. THE GUIDANCE NOW
HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SAT. THE GFS
QUICKLY MOVES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP...SAT NITE WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUN AND
MON. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SAT NITE. IT ALSO HAS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUN AND
MON. THE CANADIAN IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
CHANGING GUIDANCE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY. THAT SAID...THE GUIDANCE
DOES AGREE ON A COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN SUN AND MON BEHIND THE
FRONT. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE COLDER WITH TEMPS IN RESPONSE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A TRANSITION FROM A HIGH VFR CIG
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...TO AN MVFR CIG THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE BY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
NE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST
TIME FRAME.
ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE NE....EXCEPT AT
KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL DOWN VALLEY FROM THE SW. MVFR LOW
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED UPSTATE SC...AND HIGH END MVFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REACH MVFR ACROSS THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE KAVL MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN WITH AN IFR CIG.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY ENDING RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z 02-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 58%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 58%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 58%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 70%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062.
SC...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JATHazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 9:57 PM EST, 5 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 957 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-180300- RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE- GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS- GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- 957 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035-056-068-SCZ004>008-010-011-180300- STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG- CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- 957 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2:52 PM EST | Flash Flood Watch | GSP | Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Graham, Haywood and 11 more | 43 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2015Every wind advisory in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.