Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2015

Wind Advisory 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

January 4, 20159 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Jan 4, 2015, 1:35 PM EST for 9 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Jan 4, 2015, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 20 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 4, 2015, 1:35 PM EST (18:35 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 4, 2015, 4:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 5, 2015, 12:00 PM EST
In force
20 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-01-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-01-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 58 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
474 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
68 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

195 
WWUS72 KGSP 041835
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...

.WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-501-503-505-050300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.150104T2100Z-150105T1700Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...
BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...
LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE
135 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS OF
  WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES AND POWERLINES MAY GIVE WAY AS
  THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

CDG
3 follow-up statements
447 
WWUS72 KGSP 050148
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
848 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...STRONG WIND GUSTS TONIGHT...

.IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-501-503-505-051000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150105T1700Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...
BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...
LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE
848 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH
  CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS

* TIMING...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES AND POWERLINES MAY GIVE WAY AS THE
  GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$
144 
WWUS72 KGSP 050824
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING...

.GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A CANADIAN AIR MASS SLIDES
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NCZ048-052-053-050930-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150105T1700Z/
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
324 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND HAYWOOD COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-051700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150105T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE
324 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF
  NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS

* TIMING...THROUGH NOON TODAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES AND POWERLINES MAY GIVE WAY AS 
  THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

NED
600 
WWUS72 KGSP 051657
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1157 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE MOUNTAINS...

.A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS ANTICIPATED.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-051800-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150105T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE
1157 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS A RESULT.
OCCASIONAL BRISK GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

$$
WIMBERLEY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Jan 4, 12:48 PM EST, 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 4, 12:48 PM EST, 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
NEAR NORMAL FOR JANUARY TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID
AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST SUNDAY...MAJORITY OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE SLID
EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 WITH A SMALL BAND OF PRECIP CROSSING THE NC/SC
LINE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECOVERED NICELY DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO
POPS/TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 645 AM...ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE TEMPS/DWPTS...FOLLOWING THE
TRACK OF THE WEDGE FRONT ACRS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
ALSO...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACRS NE GA INTO THE UPSTATE.
THERE IS ABOUT 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE
LINE. WITH SUCH STRONG BULK SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND LLVL ROTATION. I HAVE BUMPED UP THE
THUNDER MENTION TO ABOUT 30%...ROUGHLY ALONG I-85 AND SOUTH. ALL
OTHER TRENDS LOOK ABOUT ON TRACK.

AS OF 415 AM...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO THE TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH UP
WITH THE OBS...AS A WARM WEDGE FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE CWFA.
TEMP GRADIENT IS PRETTY SHARP...WITH EQY AND GRD AT 63...WHILE
KAND/KCLT ARE AROUND 48. ALSO...I HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADV TO
EXPIRE. NO METARS IN THE CWFA ARE LESS THAN 1/2SM ATTM.

AS OF 330 AM...THE WEDGE FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACRS
CENTRAL GA AND THE MIDLANDS ATTM. THIS SHUD SCOUR OUT THE DENSE FOG
AS IT PUSHES INTO THE LWR PIEDMONT AND CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. I WILL PLAN TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADV TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM. MEANWHILE...THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE CWFA FROM THE WEST. STILL EXPECT
THIS BAND TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GETTING TO
THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTN. RAIN RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0" PER HOUR
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD ACRS AL AND NW GA. THE LATEST
FFG GUIDANCE FOR NE GA AND SRN ESCARPMENT IS 1.75-2.50" IN 3
HRS...AND 2.25-3.50" IN 6 HOURS. SO I STILL THINK THE STREAMS CAN
MANAGE THE INCOMING RAIN...WITH AN ISOLD HYDRO/FLOOD THREAT POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ANY SEVERE THREAT AS THE
STRONGLY SHEARED LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSES THE CWFA TODAY. MOST
GUIDANCE STILL ONLY UNCOVERING 200-300 J/KG OF CAPE AT MOST ALONG
THE SE FRINGE OF THE CWFA. AS USUAL...THE NAM HAS MORE CAPE (UP 500
J/KG...WELL TO THE WEST ACRS THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT. THE LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS THE MARGINAL RISK JUST CLIPPING UNION NC. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A NON-ZERO WIND THREAT AND TORNADO THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY EARLY ON...AS UNCOVERED WARM SECTOR IS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S...WHILE THE WEDGE IS IN THE MID-UPR 40S. SOME LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85 MAY SPIKE INTO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70 BEFORE
THE CONVECTION MOVES THRU.

THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT...GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE RAIN
SHIELD...THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU AND SHIFT THE WINDS
OUT OF THE NW. FROM THERE THE STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS LIKELY SEEING 40-50 MPH GUSTS.
FCST SNDGS ALSO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING WITHIN THE NWLY
FLOW. A FEW SHWRS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER. TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH A FEW SNOW SHWRS AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXING IN OVERNIGHT. POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUM IS EXPECTED. TEMPS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHUD FALL
INTO THE MID-UPR 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A DRY
CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT. H85 CAA WILL SLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN BECOME NEUTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CWA
SHOULD SEE SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FAVORING
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 40 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS
TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

WEAK RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...THE AXIS OF A SHALLOW L/W
TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A POTENT VORT MAX
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUES. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE DELMARVA.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MIN AND MAX TEMPS ON TUES WILL RANGE VERY
CLOSE TO NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MIXING TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS FROM THE SW DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...A AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE PAC
NW. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 1050+MB HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS ON WED...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS ON THURS. STRONG CAA WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...PEAKING
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS LOW AS -20C ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. H85
TEMPS WILL SHOULD START TO RECOVER ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT RETURN
FLOW. WED HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON
THURSDAY...MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS TO LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT....HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THURSDAY
NIGHT...MINS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. TEMPERATURES
COULD BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A SOLID 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE AREA. AN HWO COLD WAVE MENTION WILL CONTINUE. IN
ADDITION...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL SHARPLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAIRLY MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP LATE
WEEK...WITH THE ERN TROUGH GETTING REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THU NIGHT/FRI ON THE ECMWF...WHILE SHALLOW RIDGING DEVELOPS ON THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN BETTER CONTINUITY AND WILL
BE FAVORED. WILL THUS FOLLOW THE IDEA OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING
IN THE NW FLOW...WITH ANY ATTENDANT SHALLOW MOISTURE STAYING N OF
THE REGION LATE WEEK. THE COLD AIR WILL GET SLIGHTLY REINFORCED FRI
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER TO THE N OF
THE REGION. HEIGHTS SHOULD THEN FINALLY BEGIN RISING UNDER A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH DIVING REDEVELOPING
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE PLAINS. ANY RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...AS WE
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THIS TIMING. THIS SHOULD
KEEP CAD FROM FORMING UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP SLIDING UP INTERSTATE 85 AT THIS TIME.
THUS...TAF WILL INITIALIZE AT VFR WITH SHRA AND A TEMPO FROM 18-20Z
FOR LOWERED VISB/CIGS.  EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER A BIT
BEHIND THE PRECIP BEFORE RECOVERING TO SOLID VFR AROUND 22Z.  FROM
THERE NO CIGS RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST AS THE FROM APPROACHES AND
PASSES THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SLOWLY VEERING NORTHWEST AROUND 01-02Z BEFORE
VEERING NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS FCST
WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD.  TAFS WILL INITIALIZE AT IFR/LIFR LEVELS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW CIGS AND VISB ERODE AHEAD OF
INCREASING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC FROPA.  SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING
WESTERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
PASSES.  GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER DECENT 850MB COLD ADVECTION WILL WARRANT CONTINUED
GUSTS AT KAVL.  LASTLY...SN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN LINE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN KAVL TAF AT THIS TIME DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DROP OUT
OF CANADA...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACRS THE REGION THRU THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%     MED   60%
KHKY       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
DRY ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
MEAN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BECOME EXTREMELY DRY. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL
BE LIKELY FOR WED AND THU....AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY SET
UP AS WELL. FIRE DANGER COULD BE HEIGHTENED IF FINE FUELS DRY OUT
SUFFICIENTLY FOLLOW THE WEEKEND RAIN. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE HWO...OR A FIRE WX
WATCH...AT SOME POINT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...NED
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 4, 4:31 AM EST, 9 hours 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-050945-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
431 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. RIDGE TOP GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS.
..THURSDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ035>037-051-056>059-062>065-068>070-
501>510-SCZ001>008-010-050945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-SWAIN-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
431 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS.
..THURSDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-050945-
ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
431 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SHALLOW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
AFFECT PIEDMONT LOCATIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. VERY GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS.
..THURSDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NED

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 4, 8:57 AM EST, 4 hours 38 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
857 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

NCZ068>072-SCZ009-013-014-041445-
CLEVELAND NC-CABARRUS NC-GASTON NC-MECKLENBURG NC-LINCOLN NC-
CHESTER SC-YORK SC-UNION SC-
857 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN...GASTON...SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...
WESTERN UNION...NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
NORTHEASTERN UNION...YORK...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND CHESTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM EST...

AT 857 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF CHERRYVILLE
TO 4 MILES WEST OF CARLISLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GASTONIA...ROCK HILL...YORK...CHESTER...UPTOWN CHARLOTTE...NORTHWEST
CHARLOTTE...NORTHEAST CHARLOTTE...KANNAPOLIS...DOWNTOWN CONCORD AND
HUNTERSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8084 3507 8091 3492 8086 3467 8094
      3456 8158 3487 8149 3485 8145 3490 8148
      3505 8143 3505 8141 3514 8140 3516 8137
      3517 8139 3541 8132 3551 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1357Z 259DEG 37KT 3537 8129 3461 8154

08
Special weather statement, Jan 4, 9:34 AM EST, 4 hours 1 minute before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
934 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

NCZ057-071-072-082-041515-
ROWAN NC-UNION NC-CABARRUS NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
934 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN...UNION AND CABARRUS COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 AM EST...

AT 932 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DOWNTOWN
CONCORD TO 4 MILES WEST OF WAXHAW...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...NORTHEAST CHARLOTTE...
MATTHEWS...MINT HILL...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...STALLINGS AND
UNIONVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3516 8044 3518 8037
      3517 8036 3519 8028 3482 8034 3482 8080
      3494 8078 3502 8085 3552 8065 3566 8031
      3559 8021 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 246DEG 47KT 3543 8063 3492 8082

MOORE
Special weather statement, Jan 4, 9:38 AM EST, 3 hours 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

SCZ009-014-041500-
CHESTER SC-YORK SC-
938 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
YORK AND EASTERN CHESTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM EST...

AT 938 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
RICHBURG TO NEAR BLACKSTOCK...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCK HILL...LESSLIE...GREAT FALLS...FORT LAWN...RICHBURG...FISHING
CREEK RESERVOIR...EDGEMOOR AND CATAWBA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8089 3464 8090 3460 8089 3454 8088
      3456 8114 3494 8099 3492 8086 3490 8088
      3487 8088 3484 8087 3483 8090 3479 8088
      3475 8088 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1438Z 264DEG 47KT 3479 8099 3455 8110

MOORE
Special weather statement, Jan 4, 10:15 AM EST, 3 hours 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1015 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

NCZ082-041600-
UNION NC-
1015 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
UNION COUNTY UNTIL 1100 AM EST...

AT 1014 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ANSONVILLE TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF MINERAL SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONROE...WINGATE...MARSHVILLE...STURDIVANTS...NEW SALEM AND TRINITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8069 3517 8033 3520 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1514Z 254DEG 27KT 3518 8028 3482 8064

MOORE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 3, 9:26 PM ESTDense Fog AdvisoryGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg, Union7 hr
Jan 4, 6:33 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRutherford27 min
Jan 4, 8:57 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGaston, Mecklenburg48 min
Jan 4, 9:34 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus, Union41 min
Jan 4, 10:15 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion45 min

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2015Every wind advisory in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.