Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL TO FINSH OFF THE
WORK WEEK. A WEDGE OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASES RAIN CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2030 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...FAVORING
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME SE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 230 PM...A MID/UPR LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER EXTREME SW NC. A LOBE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW
CENTER ACRS GA...IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT TOWARD THE NE...PROVIDING DPVA
ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...A 1028MB
HIGH PRES SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
QUEBEC...WITH A WEDGE NOSING SOUTH ALONG EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ALL THE WAY THRU WESTERN NC. THIS WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT STRATUS...WHICH IS SLOWLY MIXING INTO A CU FIELD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY. WHERE THE CU FIELD EXISTS...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
SHOWS SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING ACRS
THE NC MTNS...WHERE TERRAIN IS PROVIDING LLVL LIFT.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN...THE HIGH RES MODELS ALL SEEM TO FOCUS
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ACRS THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY INVOF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOBE OF VORTICITY. STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING...SO THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATE FLOODING. I HAVE A
SOLID CHC TO LIKELY POP FOR MOST OF THE CWFA...WITH CATEGORICAL FOR
THE SW NC MTNS AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE ISENT LIFT INCREASING AGAIN ACRS MOST OF
NC AND PERHAPS INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE ON THE 300 K SFC...AS THE
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN...WHILE A NE WIND
PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S IN THE MTNS AND LWR-MID 60S
ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

THURSDAY...THE MID LVL LOW WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL NC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE THE
BEST UPPER SUPPORT EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE WEDGE WILL
WEAKEN AS THE PARENT HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRATUS SHUD MIX OUT INTO A CU
FIELD...WITH SOME REBOUND IN TEMPS ACRS THE EAST...AND SIMILAR TEMPS
ACRS THE WEST. SO EXPECT AFTN CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...STARTING EARLY
IN THE MTNS. THERE WILL BE LESS CAPE...BUT STILL ENUF FOR GARDEN-
VARIETY TSTMS. FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...SO ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY LINGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WED...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRI NITE
LEAVING NWLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE
PERIOD ALLOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES TO MOVE THRU AND ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SFC...THE WEAK CAD LIKE SURFACE RIDGE ERODES ON FRI THEN A
WEAK FRONT OR BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA ON SAT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH. INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL AS WELL.
THAT SAID...THERE SHUD BE SOME FORCING WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVES AND
THE WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH BEST POP ACROSS THE MTNS DUE TO BETTER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND NWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL BOOST FOR
LIFT. RIGHT NOW...SEVERE CHC SEEMS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE VALUES. IN ADDITION...FLOOD THREAT SEEMS TO
ABATE GIVEN THE CHANGE IN FLOW TO NWLY AND LOWERING PW VALUES. TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FRI RISE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED... THE PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
EXPANDING INTO THE CWA. WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING POPS JUST ABOVE CLIMO ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF FEATURES A SLIGHT UPPER RIDGE
THAT ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...WHILE THE MUCH WETTER 12Z
GFS PUSHES A SHORTWAVE/SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING AND ALLOWS CONVECTION TO PERSIST ALL NIGHT. DUE TO BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY...THOUGH
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS DO NOT COMPLETELY LOSE POPS OVERNIGHT. MODELS COME
BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING AND RAISING POPS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE SLIGHTLY
DESTABILIZING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. AGREEMENT
THEN WANES AGAIN...AS THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PASS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GFS STALLING THE BOUNDARY AND LAGGING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY 24-48 HOURS. THE ECMWF THEN FORMS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWINGS IT THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS CREATES A GULF LOW THE DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
THE CWA AROUND THE SAME TIME. POOR MODEL AGREEMENT IS LEADING TO
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...THE ECMWF HAS AGAIN SHOWN
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...SO ITS GENERALLY DRIER SOLUTION WAS
USED THROUGHOUT WITH A BIT OF GFS FILTERED IN...SO POPS OF AT LEAST
CLIMO ARE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS START NEAR CLIMO IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND
INCREASE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WHOLE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE TERMINAL IS ON THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE CLOUD
COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HEALTHY CU FIELD TO THE SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SOME INSTBY. TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THE CLOUDS LOOK
STRATIFORM AND THINGS ARE STABLE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OUT OF THE
EAST...IT LOOKS LIKE KCLT WILL REMAIN IN MVFR CLOUDS AND PERIODIC
LIGHT SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF DEEPER CONVECTION THAT MAY
WARRANT TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW. OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT CIGS WILL LOWER BACK TO IFR AND SETTLE SOMEWHERE IN
300-500 FT RANGE. CIGS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING...AS FLOW
WEAKENS AND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL FAVOR A NE DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR KHKY...ALL SITES ARE WITHIN SOME INSTABILITY
FOR CONVECTION...WITH KAVL AND KAND HAVING THE BEST CHC OF DIRECTION
IMPACT FROM TSRA. CIGS ARE STILL FLIRTING WITH MVFR (AND LOOK TO
STAY IFR AT KHKY). CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS EVENING...BUT
INCREASING UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHRA AND PATCHY DZ
AROUND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL FILL IN AND LOWER BACK TO IFR AT ALL
SITES...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT KHKY. CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TO MVFR WITH SOME BREAKS TO VFR AROUND END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THRU AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE. SO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORNING STRATUS AND FOG
WILL ALSO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER WET GROUND...THRU
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     LOW   51%     HIGH  81%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     MED   69%     MED   74%     HIGH  85%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     MED   79%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       MED   61%     MED   63%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     MED   66%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  96%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1135 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-
505-507-509-SCZ001>014-019-041545-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1135 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS POSED BY THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-041545-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
1135 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

SCZ001-032200-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
527 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OCONEE
COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF WALHALLA...OR OVER DEVILS FORK STATE PARK. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEVILS FORK STATE PARK...LAKE JOCASSEE AND LAKE KEOWEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LAKES JOCASSEE AND KEOWEE ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8299 3499 8294 3498 8294 3497 8293
      3490 8290 3489 8291 3491 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 295DEG 1KT 3494 8295

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             8 WNW CLARKESVILLE      34.66N 83.64W
06/03/2015  E1.75 INCH       HABERSHAM          GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE WHITE COUNTY
            BORDER.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             8 WNW CLARKESVILLE      34.66N 83.64W
06/03/2015  E0.50 INCH       HABERSHAM          GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HAIL SIZE WAS ACTUALLY MARBLE SIZE AND NOT GOLF BALL
            SIZE.  ORIGINALLY MISUNDERSTOOD REPORT FROM DEPUTY.

&&

OUTLAW

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