Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

114 
WWUS52 KGSP 112336
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015

SCC083-112346-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-150912T0000Z/
SPARTANBURG SC-
736 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3509 8178 3519 8188 3535 8181 3522 8152
      3511 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 215DEG 12KT 3520 8177 

$$

NCC045-161-SCC021-120000-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-150912T0000Z/
RUTHERFORD NC-CLEVELAND NC-CHEROKEE SC-
736 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND NORTHWESTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES...
 
AT 736 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAFFNEY...OR 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF COWPENS NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOILING SPRINGS NC...MOORESBORO...EARL...COWPENS NATIONAL
BATTLEFIELD...CAROLEEN...HENRIETTA...CLIFFSIDE AND ELLENBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. BRIEF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8178 3519 8188 3535 8181 3522 8152
      3511 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 215DEG 12KT 3520 8177 

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5:10PM...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED
AROUND THE AREA...HAS BEEN DECLINING OVER THE LAST HOUR. CAMS ARE
CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AS LARGE
AREA OF QLCS/MCS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE MOVES EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

AS OF 215 PM...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF WILL DIG INTO OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FALLING
HEIGHTS ATOP THE CWFA THRU THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT...AND REACH THE NC MTNS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE TROF
AXIS ACRS THE CWFA ATOP A MOIST BL. SO SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
1000-2000 J/KG...HIGHEST ACRS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SCATTERED SHWRS
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING...AND A FEW DEEPER CELLS AND TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING ACRS THE
MIDSOUTH...AND IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NC MTNS LATE THIS EVENING
(PROBABLY AS DECAYING SHWRS). SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTN...THEN POP
RAMPING UP IN THE WEST AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE
IN SWLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH VERY MOIST BL IN
PLACE. SO EXPECT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE DEEPENING TROF NOT TOO FAR NW OF THE
CWFA...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...RESULTING
IN 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO TOP OUT IN THE 40-60 KT RANGE BY PEAK
HEATING DURING THE AFTN. WITH ALL THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...ONE
WOULD THINK SEVERE TSTMS WOULD BE ON TAP. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW LIMITED INSTBY...AS THE STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
CATCH UP TO THE DRYING LLVLS. THE CAMS IN PARTICULAR DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSED WITH CONVECTION INTENSITY...SHOWING THE BETTER
REFLECTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER EAST IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS. I
WILL KEEP THE SOLID CHC TO LOW-LIKELY POPS...AS AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...AS LLVL THICKNESSES START TO FALL.
GOING WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S IN THE MTNS AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SAT
NIGHT NEAR THE TENN BORDER...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS
WILL BE FEATURED IN THE CHANCE RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST TRUE TASTE OF EARLY FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA...AS MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WHILE THE DRY AIR
MASS...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION
MAY RESULT IN MIN TEMPS AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. IN
FACT...TEMPS ON THE HIGH PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 40 MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
INFLUENCE PROVIDE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON SHORT TERM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE...EXITING THE EAST COAST BY THE
EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE EAST BY MID-WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO RECOVER WITHIN A
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SUBSTANTIVE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN FREE OF
PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE CIGS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO LIFT...WITH MVFR STILL AT
TIME OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. STILL EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LIFT TO VFR NOT
LONG AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING...AS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LOW TRIGGER TEMPS EXIST ACRS
THE AREA. HAVE VCSH WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA THIS AFTN. GUIDANCE IS
SIMILAR TO LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...NOT HANDLING THE MORNING STRATUS
VERY WELL. SO I HAVE ADDED SOME IN AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...SW FLOW WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT THE BULK OF THAT ACTIVITY TO BE WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THRU 18Z SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING ACRS THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT
AND ALONG A STALLED SUBTLE FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
SC/NC BORDER. SO EXPECT VCTS AROUND AT KHKY/KGMU/KGSP. MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT KAVL AND KAND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...FAVORING A N
DIRECTION AT THE NC SITES AND SW DIRECTION AT THE UPSTATE SITES.
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...DESPITE LACK OF IT
IN THE GUIDANCE. MORE CONVECTION WILL WORK INTO THE NC MTNS LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THAT WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING ANY OF THE TAF SITES. NEW DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT EARLY IN THE MTNS...SO WILL ALREADY GO WITH PROB30 AT KAVL
FOR MIDDAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...AS A LARGE
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESS SYSTEM BUILDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%     MED   77%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-122130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
517 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.