Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

026 
WWUS52 KGSP 051831
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

NCC173-051900-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-150905T1900Z/
SWAIN NC-
231 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTY...
 
AT 230 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF BRYSON CITY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.
PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRYSON CITY AND DEEP CREEK IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. TURN OFF
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A
BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8344 3550 8338 3540 8342 3545 8349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 306DEG 3KT 3545 8342 

$$

08

506 
WWUS52 KGSP 051852
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

NCC173-051902-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-150905T1900Z/
SWAIN NC-
252 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 300 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

LAT...LON 3552 8344 3550 8338 3540 8342 3545 8349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 306DEG 3KT 3545 8342 

$$

08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND MOIST WIND FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE SMOKIES...UPSLOPE NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A REMNANT SFC OR CLOUDY/CLR BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. WILL CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROB OVER
THE W SIMILAR TO MODEL GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...OVER THE PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS...SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WAS
ALLOWING FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. THE PROBLEM NOW WILL BE FINDING
A LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR TRIGGER.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE IN A WEDGE-LIKE
PATTERN. THE RESULTING E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP COPIOUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD SCT CONVECTION
TODAY. BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND
BETTER INSTABILITY EXIST. THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU
THE EVENING WITH SCT CHC LINGERING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ISOLATED
ELSEHWERE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...DCAPE
VALUES ARE FCST TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...SO ONLY ISOLATED SVR
STORMS EXPECTED. COULD SEE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS BECOME ANCHORED ALONG RIDGES IN THE ELY FLOW OR TRAINING
CELLS DEVELOP. DESPITE THE SFC HIGH PLACEMENT...THIS IS NOT A GREAT
SET UP FOR A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WITH LITTLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OR WWA ABOVE THE /WEDGE/. DO EXPECT COOLER HIGHS TODAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LOW WILL BE PVER
THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS FORM TX TO TEH SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW RETROGRESSERS SOUTHWEST TO TEH
GULF COAST BY MONDAY...WHERE IT REMAINS INTO TEUSDAY NIGHT. WEEK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST ACORSS THE
SOUTHNER APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES SW.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINS THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM THE WEST OVER THIS SURFACE RIDGE
ON SUNDAY...THAT DIMINISHES ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE NE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON TUESDAY A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE GULF STATES...BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE GULF TROUGH WEAKENS...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STARTS TO AMPLIFY. THE
NORTHERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE FRONT DECELERATES AS IT REACHES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

MODEL INSTABLITY IS GREATEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT APPEARS TO BE STRANGELY TAME AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCCESSIVE...AS
STEERIGN FLOW REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CELLS MOVING...BUT UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHEN PRESENT...IS RATHER WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THIS
EVENING. CEILING WILL BE SCT/BKN THRU THE EARLY EVENING WITH A BASE
IN THE 030 TO 040 RANGE MAINLY. KEPT SOME CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER
TAF WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...ALTHO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE CONTINUED MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER
06Z. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL BE IFR...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE CLOUD BASE AT THE LOW END OF MVFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.
WIND SHOULD BE NE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT KAVL AND KAND...
WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING PERSISTS NEAR OLD SFC BOUNDARY AND
CLOUD/CLR BOUNDAY. WILL USE TEMPOS AT THOSE TAF SITES. WILL GO VCTS
FOR THE REST OF THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS...UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND LIFTS IT TO THE
030 TO 040 RANGE. EXPECT LOW STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MTN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. AN MVFR/IFR RESTRICTION IS A GOOD BET AT KAVL IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR
TO KCLT.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS MONDAY MORNING. DRY
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE E ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE
THREAT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
543 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-061000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
543 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
825 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     LIGHTNING        5 NW MORGANTON          35.79N 81.77W
09/04/2015                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A PERSON IN THE OAK HILL COMMUNITY WAS STRUCK BY
            LIGHTNING INDOORS WHILE TALKING ON A CELLULAR PHONE
            PLUGGED INTO A WALL CHARGER. THE INDIVIDUAL WAS NOT
            SERIOUSLY INJURED.

&&

WIMBERLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

NCZ051-051730-
SWAIN NC-
105 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SWAIN
COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 105 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18
MILES NORTHWEST OF WAYNESVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALSAM
MOUNTAIN IN THE SMOKIES. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BALSAM MOUNTAIN...NEWFOUND
GAP...OCONALUFTEE...CLINGMANS DOME AND DEEP CREEK...ALL IN THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8346 3561 8345 3562 8340 3567 8334
      3565 8331 3566 8330 3569 8326 3569 8322
      3567 8318 3564 8320 3563 8318 3560 8319
      3556 8316 3554 8317 3552 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 357DEG 2KT 3566 8324

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

NCZ059-063-051745-
NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
117 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 116 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTH OF WAYNESVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY BETWEEN BALSAM
GAP AND MOUNT PISGAH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8303 3534 8296 3532 8296 3531 8295
      3531 8294 3530 8293 3530 8292 3527 8292
      3522 8304 3534 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 325DEG 4KT 3531 8302

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

NCZ051-059-051815-
NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN NC-
153 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
JACKSON AND EASTERN SWAIN COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF SYLVA...OR NEAR BALSAM MOUNTAIN...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BALSAM...BALSAM MOUNTAIN...THE
BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY FROM SMOKY MOUNTAINS TO BALSAM GAP...AND CHEROKEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8328 3557 8317 3551 8318 3551 8316
      3549 8315 3549 8314 3546 8313 3547 8311
      3546 8310 3542 8307 3538 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 349DEG 6KT 3553 8322

08