Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...I HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. THE CAMPOP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE CURRENT
COVERAGE...SO THAT WAS BLENDED IN THRU THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
RESULTS IN LIKELY POP FOR MUCH OF THE NC MTNS WITH CHC POP EXPANDED
SOMEWHAT ACRS THE FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS
ON TRACK.

AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA WILL
TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT BY SATURDAY...AS THE NORTHERN PORTION
PROGRESSES OVER ME...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION RETROGRESSES INTO THE
TN AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM AND FL. THE MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH GENERALLY INCREASING
INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT GREATER DAYTIME CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN
IN RECENT DAYS. WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
OFFSHORE. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE PROFILES. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY TO DECREASE CAPPING A BIT FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME MEASURE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN
PROFILES MAY INHIBIT HEATING AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S ALL BUT THE
FAR SRN PIEDMONT. A SOLID CHANCE OF MTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD RESULT...WITH FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UNDER ANY SLOW
MOVING TSTMS LATE SUNDAY.

THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC TO GENERATE A NARROW UPPER JETLET...AND POSSIBLY SOME
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIVERGENCE...OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...ALBEIT LIGHT...AND THIS WILL
OPEN UP THE REGION TO BETTER GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THIS SETUP
WILL INCREASE PW VALUES IN PROFILES ABOVE 1.6 INCHES THROUGHOUT...
HOWEVER...THE GEFS ANOMALIES SUGGEST THAT ANY DEPARTURES ABOVE ONE
STANDARD DEVIATION IN PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY TO THE SE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT HEATING AND CURTAIL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE UPPER FORCING WILL PERMIT AN UPTICK IN
MTN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MONDAY...WITH BETTER SCATTERED COVERAGE
STARTING TO EXPAND WELL INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WILL SHADE
MAXES TO THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND COMPACT UPPER TROFFING
DIGGING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC NW. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE TROF MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES/PLAINS AND APPROACHES OUR AREA BY THURS. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROF WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS WITH RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD AGAIN AFTERWARDS. AT THE SFC...THE
LARGE SCALE BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SFC PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUES APPEARS TO WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE CWFA.
THE MODELS GENERATE A FAIRLY STRONG CENTRAL PLAINS LOW LATE TUES/EARLY WED
AND MOVE IT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE LATE THURS/EARLY FRI TIMEFRAME
AND COULD STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON FRI. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FCST WITH FAIRLY TYPICAL MID TO LATE
SUMMERTIME CHANCES FOR MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING.
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INCREASE ON THURS AND FRI WITH THE
FROPA. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY LIGHT AND SLY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
CLIMO IF NOT JUST ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR...WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED LOW VFR CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SE WINDS EVENTUALLY FAVORING THE SW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
LIMITED...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING LOW VFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE....AND PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION ANYWAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT
DAYBREAK FOG.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH LOW VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FOOTHILLS...WITH THUNDER AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAVL. MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN SUPPORTS DAYBREAK IFR FOG AT KAVL. ALTHOUGH LOW
DAYBREAK CIGS ARE NOT SUPPORTED AT KAVL BY THE GUIDANCE...IT IS HARD
TO IMAGINE IFR LEVEL CLOUDS WOULD NOT OCCUR AGAIN GIVEN THE
GRADUALLY MOISTENING PATTERN. VFR IS EXPECTED AT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AT FOOTHILLS SITES...WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW VFR CLOUDS.
LIGHT WINDS WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY FAVOR THE SW...EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IMPROVE EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY...BUT MAINLY AFTER
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH IN THE FOOTHILLS TO
MENTION.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD GENERALLY DRY VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS MAINLY WITHIN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN BEING OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   48%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>008-010-151945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
339 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST IN ONE LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SCZ009-011>014-019-151945-
YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
339 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER PIEDMONT OF UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

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