Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING IN MOISTURE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT UNTIL THIS FRONT PASSES LATE TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXCEED
1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON...SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...AND ORGANIZED
STORM WILL NOT BE LIKELY. LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR WEAK CONVECTION TO PERSIST. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMING
MORE MOIST...GREATER PRECIPITATION RATES CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT ENOUGH
STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP CELLS MOVING. TEMPERATURES
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MON...SFC COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TUE NITE
TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH IT. STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION THRU THE EVENING BEFORE THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SVR STORM OR TWO SOUTH OF I-85 EARLY IN
THE EVENING AS WELL. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WED
AND REMAINS IN PLACE ON THU AS A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROF BUILDS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. WED SHUD BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THU...BUT CHC IS
QUITE LOW. HIGHS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WED...WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES THU. NEAR NORMAL LOWS TUE NITE WILL FALL TO A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...STARTING AT 00Z FRIDAY...500MB PATTERN HAS A
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO.  THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH IF FORECAST
SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHICH REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SOUTHERN PORTION ELONGATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS NOW FORECAST
TO BREAK OFF INTO A CUT OFF LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS COAST. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS ANOTHER CUT OFF
LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THE SW RIDGE MOVES WEST OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY WHILE THE GENERAL UPPER FLOW IS WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NATION.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER A 1020 HIGH CENTERED OVER
CENTERED OVER THE SW VA AND NC MTNS. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS NRN FL TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE COMBINED WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING LOCATIONS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. SEEMS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR UPSLOPE IS LATE FRIDAY WITH 925MB FLOW FROM THE EAST OVER
THE PIEDMONT AND LIGHT SE FLOW TOWARD MTNS.

TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SLOWLY RISING TO
NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW VFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...AS WELL AS MVFR VSBY...WITH LIFTING OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
BUT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THROUGH MIDDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW...WITH
GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...LOW VFR CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING FOR BRIEF MID TO HIGH VFR CIGS...BUT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME. BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS IFR TO LIFR CIGS...WITH LOW
VFR TO IFR VSBY...WITH THE WORST VSBY IN NC. ALTHOUGH VSBY IMPROVES
DURING THE MORNING...CIGS ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR. MONDAY CONVECTION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO REACH THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY TUE EVENING...AND SHOULD
PREVAIL THRU AT FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME DAYBREAK FOG IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   62%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  96%     MED   78%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH  84%     LOW   53%     LOW   35%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     HIGH  97%     MED   66%     MED   63%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  90%     MED   67%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   62%     LOW   55%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-111930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
330 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS...
HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

GAZ029-101815-
ELBERT GA-
152 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ELBERT COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF ELBERTON...OR NEAR BOWMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELBERTON...BOWMAN...RUSSELL STATE PARK...LAKE RUSSELL...
RUCKERSVILLE...DEWY ROSE...SWEET CITY AND ROCK BRANCH.

LAT...LON 3409 8302 3410 8304 3411 8303 3412 8305
      3415 8306 3417 8310 3423 8307 3423 8300
      3421 8298 3425 8291 3425 8275 3419 8273
      3402 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 298DEG 13KT 3421 8299

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

GAZ010-NCZ062-063-SCZ001-101915-
RABUN GA-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-MACON NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
224 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN RABUN...
SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND NORTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES EAST OF CLAYTON...OR 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN CITY...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAYTON...MOUNTAIN CITY...DILLARD...SKY VALLEY...SALEM...BLACK ROCK
MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...OCONEE STATE PARK...LAKE KEOWEE...PINE MOUNTAIN
AND BAD CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8339 3498 8344 3505 8311 3502 8299
      3479 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 264DEG 17KT 3490 8332

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHALL                35.80N 82.68W
08/10/2015                   MADISON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST 6 TREES DOWN ON ROADWAYS IN MADISON COUNTY
            MAINLY FROM NEAR MARSHALL NORTH TO ALONG INTERSTATE 26
            TOWARD THE TENNESSEE LINE.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE BOWMAN             34.17N 83.00W
08/10/2015                   ELBERT             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN NEAR DEWY ROSE.

&&

OUTLAW