Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL HELP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW....MAKING FOR A DRIER WEEKEND. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF CAN BE EASILY PICKED OUT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CROSSING THE OHIO AND TENN VALLEYS TODAY. THE
ENERGY IS TRIGGERING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACRS THE EASTERN GULF
STATES AND CAROLINAS. ONE CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE EASTERN
QUARTER OF THE CWFA...MOST OF IT ALREADY EAST OF CHARLOTTE. NEW
CONVECTION IS FILLING IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE RAIN
SHIELD ACRS GA AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CROSS
THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. THEN THE SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. SO POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING...STILL LIKELY POP EAST TO CATEGORICAL WEST. GIVEN THE STRONG
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.
HOWEVER...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHUD LIMIT FLOOD POTENTIAL. AS
FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS
SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG ROUGHLY ALONG THE SC/NC BORDER AND
SOUTH...WITH DCAPE IN THE 600-800 J/KG RANGE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
STILL ONLY 20-25 KTS. SO A FEW MAINLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER...WITH WIND BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LATER THIS EVENING...SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTBY WILL WANE. MUCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
OR LESS WILL KEEP A SMALL TSTM THREAT. BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SHWRS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRES TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE CWFA
WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LLVL FLOW INCREASING
OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT INSTBY IN ADDITION TO
UNSUPPORTIVE MID LVL FORCING ALOFT FOR LIFT. SO EXPECT MAINLY ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH PEAK HEATING...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-26. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACRS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PICKS UP JUST AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO ANY CONVECTION
LEFT FROM THE PREVIOUS PERIOD SHOULD BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALLOWED TO WORK INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REASSERTS ITSELF INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE THE AREA IN THE STORM
TRACK AROUND THE "RING OF FIRE"....THOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD WORK TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  A MINOR SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER ON SATURDAY...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE AND A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS...IF THEY CAN GET GOING...WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEARER TO SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING. OVERALL...A LULL IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
POPS BARELY TOPPING OUT AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING...AGAIN
LIKELY PROVIDING A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH
LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PUT A CAP ON ANY QPF RESPONSE EARLY IN
THE DAY. SLIGHT MOISTENING IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...SO SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...ALSO INCLUDING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
CWA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. COVERAGE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF GOOD
FORCING AND A STILL RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...
SUPPORTING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXIST TO SUPPORT
ENOUGH BUOYANCY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...ESP
ACROSS THE MTNS. BY TUESDAY...AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN CONUS...REINFORCING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
BRINGING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE TO A SOLID CHANCE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
POSITIONED OVER THE AREA...OR PERHAPS BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED JUST
TO OUR EAST...MID-TO-LATE WEEK SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO BELOW-CLIMO
POPS AND NEAR...TO PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS CROSSING THE KCLT AREA RIGHT AROUND
18Z TAF TIME. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING TS FOR THE FIRST HOUR
OR SO. AFTER THAT CLUSTER MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONVECTION...AS VIS SAT AND RADAR SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST
ATTM. BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...AS BETTER MID LVL FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF
INSTBY ACRS THE AREA. SO WILL TEMPO MORE TS LATER THIS AFTN AND
CONTINUE WITH A PROB30 THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHUD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING WITH MVFR OR EVEN IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING WITH PATCHY FOG AS
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SO WILL ADD AN MVFR CIG STARTING AROUND
11Z. THE CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW
DIRECTION THRU TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE FRIDAY MORNING
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...A LULL IN CONVECTION AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AT TIME OF
18Z TAF ISSUANCE. BUT MORE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST.
SO EXPECT VCTS AND TEMPO TS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTN. YET ANOTHER
ROUND IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF A MID LVL SHORTWAVE.
CONVECTION SHUD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHC OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AROUND...ESP AT KHKY
AND KAVL. MORE UNCERTAINTY ACRS THE UPSTATE. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW
DIRECTION THRU TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A FRONT MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       MED   77%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       MED   61%     MED   76%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       MED   77%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...LEV
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-070815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
414 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

SCZ001-002-061815-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-
149 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OCONEE
AND NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 148 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES NORTH OF WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEVILS FORK STATE PARK...JOCASSEE GORGES...LAKE JOCASSEE...KEOWEE
TOXAWAY STATE PARK...LAKE KEOWEE...SUNSET...ROCKY BOTTOM...BAD
CREEK...SASSAFRAS MOUNTAIN AND NINE TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LAKE JOCASSEE IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8279 3508 8278 3507 8278 3507 8277
      3492 8273 3491 8302 3502 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 257DEG 20KT 3497 8297

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

NCZ057-071-072-061830-
CABARRUS NC-ROWAN NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
154 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN AND CABARRUS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...

AT 153 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANNAPOLIS TO 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF UPTOWN CHARLOTTE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...NORTHEAST CHARLOTTE...DOWNTOWN
CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...HARRISBURG...ROCKWELL...MT PLEASANT...
CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...CODDLE CREEK RESERVOIR...WEST CONCORD AND
UNC CHARLOTTE.

LAT...LON 3561 8026 3529 8052 3529 8087 3550 8073
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 253DEG 23KT 3548 8061 3529 8077

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

SCZ001-061830-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
207 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OCONEE
COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 206 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...SALEM...OCONEE STATE PARK... AND LAKE
KEOWEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LAKE KEOWEE IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8314 3494 8309 3498 8292 3496 8292
      3495 8291 3494 8291 3482 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 265DEG 24KT 3490 8307

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

NCZ082-061915-
UNION NC-
225 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF UNION COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 225 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF MONROE
TO 9 MILES EAST OF LANCASTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONROE...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...STALLINGS...UNIONVILLE...WESLEY
CHAPEL...WINGATE...WAXHAW...MARSHVILLE AND LAKE PARK.

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8073 3489 8079 3494 8078
      3500 8084 3503 8080 3503 8077 3509 8069
      3519 8052 3518 8049 3518 8048 3516 8046
      3516 8044 3517 8042 3516 8041 3517 8039
      3503 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 252DEG 19KT 3503 8078 3476 8061

LANE

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