Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY TOMORROW...A
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...THE BEST CONVECTION WAS CONCENTRATED MAINLY OVER THE
NC MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE SHOWERS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE WERE
DIMINISHING BUT SENDING OUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL NOT
RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT AND WILL HOLD ONTO A 20-40 PCT PRECIP
CHC AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT IF RADAR TREND IS AN
INDICATION...WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE STORMS BY
MID EVENING.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SOME CELLS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING IN WESTERN NC AS THE
WORK VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH. CAMS DO SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT. ONCE CONVECTION WANES...PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON THURSDAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. WITH DPVA IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MODELS RESPOND WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
CLOSER TO CLIMO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN UP JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY AND THEN
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT. THE BEST LOBE OF DEEP LAYER Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY EVENING. DESPITE DEEPENING OF THE
ASSOCIATED 850 MB LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE
LOWER OH VALLEY LATE THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN SRLY/SWLY
FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE. THE
RAPID FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES THU NIGHT. ANY BRIEF UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL
FLOW COULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING LATE DAY INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEP MID AND UPPER DRYING WILL ARRIVE ON NW FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE POSSIBLY
YIELDING A MORNING STRATUS LAYER EACH DAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY DIURNAL RIDGE TOP
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROFFING LIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO OUR NE
AND THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD AND INTO THE FCST
AREA. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WONT ADVANCE
VERY FAR EAST BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY EARLY TUES THE TROF AXIS WILL LIKELY
BE JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH FURTHER DEEPENING LIKELY THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING FARTHER OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
BACK OVER THE FCST AREA. BY LATE MON/EARLY TUES...THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME SORT OF SFC LOW OVER THE FCST AREA OR JUST NORTH OF IT...YET THE
LOCATION AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCLEAR. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT BY
EARLY WED...THE LOW SHOULD BE MOVING WELL OFFSHORE WITH STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE FCST AREA TO END THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...THINGS START OUT MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SCT CONVECTION. AS THE PROFILES MOISTEN ON MON AND THE LOW LVL SLY
FLOW INCREASES...POPS INCREASE TO HIGH END CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWFA
FOR BOTH MON AND TUES WITH DRYING ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...IF
NOT JUST ABOVE...FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING TOWARDS DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH SCT CELLS DEVLOPING TO THE WEST...HAVE ELECTED TO
HAVE A TEMPO FOR TSRA BEGINNING AT 22Z WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS. AFTER
THE CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING...ONLY SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT FOR EARLIER CHC OF
CONVECTION. HAVE CARRIED A VCTS ALL TAF SITES UNTIL ABOUT 00Z AND
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO GO TEMPO ANYWHERE.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH FOG RELEGATED TO LITTLE TN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLIANS INTO GA. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW AND FRONT
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG/PM
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

NCZ033-050-052230-
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-
602 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

...THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 601 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 5 MILES NORTH OF SPRUCE PINE. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BANNER ELK...BAKERSVILLE...CROSSNORE...SUGAR
MOUNTAIN...SEVEN DEVILS...B.R. PARKWAY-LINVILLE FALLS TO
GRANDFATHER...GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN AND GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN STATE
PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3615 8182 3611 8181 3610 8178 3606 8175
      3590 8213 3604 8219 3618 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 243DEG 2KT 3599 8206

NED

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