Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN TAPPING THE INSTABILITY
IN PLACE. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU EARLY EVENING
AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME COVERAGE
WILL LINGER THRU THE NITE. ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE FORCING...EVEN WITH MINIMAL DCAPE VALUES IN PLACE.
ISOLATED FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EASTERLY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...BROAD EAST COAST UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE PATTERN ALOFT...WHILE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE ROTATES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...AN OLD
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE ROTATING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SAND HILLS
REGIONS.  AS EXPECTED LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PVA TIED TO WEAK H5 VORT MAX...WHICH IS
AIDED BY A MODESTLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  SPEAKING OF...EARLIER
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WORKED WELL TO STUNT HEATING AND THUS KEPT SBCAPES
GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 1.5K J/KG.  12Z THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN RATHER
MOIST WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.9-2.0 INCHES WHICH WARRANTS
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TIED TO ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.  OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SVR
STORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME
WILL REMAIN AT CAT LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE...TAPERING TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS EAST OF
I77.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER
IMPULSE SLIDES EAST TAKING THE AFORE MENTIONED SURFACE WAVE/FRONT
ALONG FOR THE RIDE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THESE DEPARTING FEATURES LEADING TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
BY MORNING.  SAID FLOW WILL CONTINUE VEER EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE SETTING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY PERIODS END.  THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF UPSLOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED.  LOW END CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE
FCST OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND
THUS INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE WITH FURTHER UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY
NORTHEAST OF I77 THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF INSTABILITY AXIS.  THAT
SAID...NAM12 SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BY LATE DAY OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...THUS WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED IF POPS ARE RAISED TO AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS WITH
LATER GUID.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230PM THURSDAY...THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED 500MB TROUGH-RIDGE WAVE COUPLET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US AND EASTERN CANADA THAT PROPAGATES QUICKLY EAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE 500MB RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ALONG THE US-
CANADIAN BORDER RESULTS IN THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS GETTING CUT OFF
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS FL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN GENERALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST AND SEPARATED FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRACK EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
THEREFORE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
US WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH TOWARDS THE FL PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK LOW OFF THE NC OUTER
BANKS SLIDING E INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH
AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE ALL KEEPS A
RIBBON OF MODEST CAPES ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF
THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD WANE AS HEATING IS LOST.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT.  AT BEST...THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...BUT CAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW.  THE NAM IS
MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...OWING TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
SUBSEQUENT CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS A DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SETTING UP THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
INSTEAD OF OVER OUR AREA.  THIS RESULTS IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW FROM
THE ATLANTIC OVER OUR AREA.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN AND HENCE
THE FORECAST SUPPORTS THE GFS/EC SOLUTION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT...SURFACE RIDGE...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NE
TOWARD THE SE CONUS TO START OFF THE WORKWEEK. IT IS STILL NOT
CONCLUSIVE AT THIS POINT JUST WHERE RIDGING WILL BE STRONG ENUF
TO SUPPRESS ANY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE GOING FCST OF PRECIP
CHANCES CLOSE TO DIURNAL CLIMO. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE A
TAD WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE AND HAIR OVER CLIMO. THE FA IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN WITHIN THE NW FLOW IN EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL CONUS
ANTI-CYCLONE THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE IS
SHOWN AMONG VIRTUALLY ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE...SO THE EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PERSISTENCE POP AND TEMPERATURE.

SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE TREND
TOWARD AND EVEN WEAKER FLOW REGIME IS PROBABLE. BASED ON THIS...IT
IS HARD TO ARGUE THAT THE EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX WILL DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THE LATE JULY CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THUS ALL
TAFS FEATURE VCTS/TEMPOS.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP EXITS EAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED FOG/STRATUS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KAVL/KHKY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT
ALL NC SITES WITH SOME BACKED WNW FLOW POSSIBLE AT THE SC SITES
TONIGHT...THEN PREVAILING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO A TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED/SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEEK ON WITH THE BEST CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     MED   75%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...CDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-242030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
428 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND DIMINISH TONIGHT. WHILE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE... WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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