Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE AFTER A
FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE CAPPED THE TEMP RUN UP SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY IN THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AREA.
THEREFORE...DIALED BACK THE MAX TEMPS BY A 2-3 DEGREES THOSE AREAS.
THE RISE AT CLT HAS SLOWED AS WELL SO THEY SHOULD COME UP SHY OF
100. CONVECTION FIRING OVER FAR WESTERN NC AND NE GA AS EXPECTED.
LATEST HRRR USES THE SFC TROUGH LAYING ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO
WESTERN NC TO DEVELOP SCT THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
CAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000J AND DCAPES >1000J A FEW WET DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS ARE LIKELY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD ASH OUT DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOW TO
MID 70S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY AS THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO SLIP EASTWARD BUT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. ALSO SUBTLE CHANGES
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
HENCE...THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS WITH SOME DEGREE OF SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN ERODING IN THE AFTERNOON TO WHERE WE EXPECT A FEW
UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THE CAP. HENCE...WILL CARRY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT. HAVE GONE ON THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WHICH IS WHAT THE
THICKNESS WOULD SUPPORT. DEWPOINTS WILL TRY TO MIX OUT SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN HOUR
OR TWO OF APPARENT TEMPS REACHING 105 ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPSTATE.
IF CURRENT NUMBERS HOLD...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND PERHAPS THE CLT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE THE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THAT IS ANTICIPATED...AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN CONUS...AND CARVES
OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE...FROM THE TENN TO THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO ACTIVATE A
PSEUDO-WARM FRONT/E-W ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND THIS COULD ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE ARE QUITE
A FEW MIXED SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY)
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE A MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL RESIDE DURING PEAK HEATING...AND
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL
COVERAGE. DESPITE IMPROVING MID/UPPER FLOW RESPONDING TO HEIGHT
FALLS...SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK OWING TO
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE...
GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO FRI
NIGHT...AND LIKELY POPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CARRIED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALSO DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG W/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
TERRAIN-INDUCED CONVECTION.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AMPLE GOOD SOURCES OF LIFT...WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND AN UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF
UVV. HOWEVER...SATURDAY WILL BE THE MOST STABLE DAY OF THE WEEK AS
WELL...OWING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABUNDANT MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHEAR WILL BE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JUNE...ABOUT 30 KTS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION COULD THEREFORE OCCUR IF POCKETS OF MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE PLEASANT DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY...ADVECTING SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON
TIMING AND ASSOCIATED QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT THOUGH
INCREASED POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ARE LIKELY.

GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE...TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD
WILL SERVE TO TRIGGER SCT TSRA AS AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...WILL CARRY A TEMPO TSRA FROM 21-23Z THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ELSEWHERE...AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
NC...THROUGH UPSTATE SC INTO NE GA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. CAMS FAVOR WESTERN AREAS WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE...SO WILL CARRY A TEMPO TSRA AT KAND. WILL MENTION
VCTS AT GSP AND GMU. THE CHANCE OF TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION AT AVL
AND HKY. EXPECT SOME FOG FORMATION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT AVL AND HKY.

OUTLOOK...TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MORNING
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER
VALLEYS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A MUCH DRYER AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.

THURSDAY JUNE 25...

 AVL   96 1952
 CLT  102 1914
 GSP  101 1952

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JP/LEV
AVIATION...LG
CLIMATE...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             TOCCOA                  34.58N 83.32W
06/24/2015  E0.50 INCH       STEPHENS           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MARBLE SIZED HAIL NEAR THE TOCCOA AIRPORT

&&

VISIN

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