Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...EXPECT THE GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CVRG ACRS THE
MTNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK OF ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE PIEDMONT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HTG THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE NOMINALLY LESS SUPPRESSIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER LLVL MOISTURE AND MEAN FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL PLAN
UP RAMPING UP TO SCATTERED DIURNAL MTN CVRG AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE...PEAKING NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN TOMORROW. SFC DWPTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX LOWER INTO/THRU THE
60S...KEEPING PIEDMONT HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL BE LOSING STEAM AS IT GRADUALLY PUSHES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA. THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN ALLOWING
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO DROP INTO THE LEE TROUGH EARLY WED
EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE SC...SW INTO NE GA. THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING NE AS A WARM FRONT ON THU AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALOFT THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO NOSE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THU WHICH WILL KEEP THICKNESSES HIGH WHICH SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
THE HOT TEMPS.

IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS TUE
EVENING...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS IT TRIES TO TRAVERSE THE MOUNTAINS IN A
DIMINISHING CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

ON WED...MODEL RESPONSE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVLOPMENT IS RATHER MUTED
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AS PROFILES EXHIBIT SOME DRYING AND QUITE A
BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST THERE.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH SBCAPES FORECAST TO EXCEED
2000J WITH LESS CIN TO OVERCOME. PLUS SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY
MAKE A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS. HENCE...WILL HAVE SOLID SCT TYPE POPS
ALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOUNTAIN STORMS MAY SLIP INTO THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE PIEDMONT WED EVENING...SO WILL HAVE
POPS INCREASING THERE WED EVENING. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT...SO WILL TREND
FORECAST TOWARD NAM/SREF WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY DRYER.

ON THU...A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO WED EVEN WITH THE WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE CAPE...BUT PROFILES AGAIN SHOW ENOUGH CIN OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WILL AGAIN FEATURE SCT
TYPE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON IN STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ENVIORNMENT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT AND WELL ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY BUT BELOW RECORD
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IN PROGRESS. HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY LOWER THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE UPPER RIDGING STEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BY SUNDAY...THE
UPPER PATTERN IS VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND VERY STEEP RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL BEYOND DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
LOWS BEING GENERATED TO OUR WEST AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD. ON
FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROFFING
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE DAY/NIGHT AS A GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. ON SAT...ANOTHER LOW TRIES TO SPIN UP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FCST AREA OR JUST TO OUR NE AND THEN SLOWLY
PROPAGATE NE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A BROAD AREA OF DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE FCST AREA
BY EARLY SAT AND REMAIN OVER THE CWFA THRU ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF
SUN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA IN THE LOWS WAKE FOR MONDAY. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CHANCES
GENERALLY HIGHER OVER THE MTS AND NC FOOTHILLS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SAT AND SUN WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LYR MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
AND BETTER UPPER LVL SUPPORT OVERHEAD. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS
ENDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGHER LVL BASED CU WILL BE SEEN UNTIL LOSS OF HTG THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOME THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...THERE IS THE ONGOING RISK OF DIURNALLY FIRED SCATTERED
TSTMS ACRS THE NC MTNS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE FTHLS LATER TODAY BUT
CVRG IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE ENUF TO FORGO ANY MENTION IN THE
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE DRY LLVL AIRMASS...TUESDAY MORNING MVFR FOG
POSSIBILITIES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NC MTN VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY
AWAY FROM THE KAVL TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK IN THE WARM AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MORNING
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND MOST LIKELY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...WITH YEARS IN WHICH THE
VALUES WERE LAST REACHED.

MONDAY JUNE 22...

 AVL   94 1964
 CLT   98 1956
 GSP   99 2006

TUESDAY JUNE 23...

 AVL   93 1988
 CLT   98 1988
 GSP   99 1988

WEDNESDAY JUNE 24...

 AVL   94 1952
 CLT  102 1930
 GSP  100 1952

THURSDAY JUNE 25...

 AVL   96 1952
 CLT  102 1914
 GSP  101 1952

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JP/JPT
AVIATION...CSH
CLIMATE...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

NCZ052-221945-
HAYWOOD NC-
310 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HAYWOOD
COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 309 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTH OF NEWPORT...OR NEAR SMOKY MOUNTAINS...BIG CREEK...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SMOKY MOUNTAINS...BIG CREEK...SMOKY MOUNTAINS...CATALOOCHEE...SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...BALSAM MOUNTAIN...FINES CREEK AND WATERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 8295 3574 8292 3569 8290 3564 8287
      3563 8285 3562 8285 3565 8320 3567 8318
      3569 8322 3569 8325 3572 8326 3573 8324
      3572 8320 3576 8316 3577 8311 3579 8308
      3577 8299 3579 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 270DEG 18KT 3576 8315

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

NCZ033-501-502-221945-
AVERY NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER CALDWELL NC-
316 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALDWELL
AND SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLOWING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3612 8155 3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8147
      3609 8145 3607 8144 3608 8142 3590 8142
      3595 8180 3596 8181 3611 8181 3612 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 270DEG 18KT 3605 8173

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

NCZ048-052-053-221945-
BUNCOMBE NC-HAYWOOD NC-MADISON NC-
322 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MADISON...WESTERN BUNCOMBE AND EAST CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

AT 322 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...OR 6 MILES WEST OF LEICESTER...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH ASHEVILLE...WEST ASHEVILLE...DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...EAST
ASHEVILLE...WOODFIN...WEAVERVILLE...BILTMORE FOREST...LEICESTER...
B.R. PARKWAY...NC ARBORETUM TO EAST ASHEVILLE AND ENKA.

LAT...LON 3556 8290 3574 8289 3578 8250 3551 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 270DEG 18KT 3565 8281

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

NCZ062-222015-
MACON NC-
342 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MACON COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES WEST OF FRANKLIN. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...COWEE...WAYAH BALD...RAINBOW SPRINGS...BURNINGTOWN...
CULLASAJA AND OTTO.

LAT...LON 3526 8358 3531 8332 3530 8332 3504 8331
      3508 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 268DEG 3KT 3517 8350

07