Alert archive / North Carolina / Red Flag Warnings in 2015

Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

February 14, 201514 counties in North Carolina; 6 counties in Georgia; 8 counties in South Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this red flag warning at Feb 14, 2015, 5:14 AM EST for 14 counties in North Carolina; 6 counties in Georgia; 8 counties in South Carolina. It took effect at Feb 14, 2015, 12:00 PM EST. It was in force for 6 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2015, 5:14 AM EST (10:14 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 14, 2015, 12:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 14, 2015, 6:00 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
All 28 counties

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 14, 5:38 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMG3 Nw Woodlawn, NCPOWERLINES REPORTED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF OLD POST OFFICE RD AND HWY 226A
Feb 14, 5:38 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMG4 Wsw Hudson, NCLARGE TREE DOWN IN YARD. MEASURED 41MPH WIND GUST.
Feb 14, 6:02 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMG5 Wsw Hickory, NCPOWERLINES DOWN AT POPLAR ST AND HWY70.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2015-02-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2015-02-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 39 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2471 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

919 
WWUS82 KGSP 141014
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

.AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LOWERING AROUND 25 PERCENT.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-142300-
/O.UPG.KGSP.FW.A.0001.150214T1700Z-150214T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.W.0001.150214T1700Z-150214T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
514 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
  CAROLINA.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

NCZ070>072-082-142300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FW.W.0001.150214T1700Z-150214T2300Z/
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
514 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
1 follow-up statement
930 
WWUS82 KGSP 141504
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1004 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...

.AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LOWERING AROUND 25 PERCENT.

NCZ035-036-056-068-069-502-504-506-508-510-142300-
/O.EXA.KGSP.FW.W.0001.150214T1700Z-150214T2300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
1004 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

* FUEL MOISTURE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-142300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0001.150214T1700Z-150214T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1004 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT...

* LOCATIONS...EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH 
  CAROLINA.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
07

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 14, 4:46 AM EST, 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 14, 4:46 AM EST, 28 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS TO THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL POLAR LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO
SURGE SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND REACH THE NC
MTNS BY MIDAFTN. THE PRES GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE...RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS AND DEWPTS
REMAINING INTO THE TEENS WILL CAUSE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS (SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW). TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY 40S ABOVE 3500 FT AND LWR-MID 50S BELOW.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A BRIEF SHOT OF
MOISTURE...AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE MTNS.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT QPF WILL BE QUITE LIMITED BY
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF GOOD NW FLOW CONDITIONS. STILL...WITH GOOD
OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH TEMP ZONE (-10 TO -
15C)...AND INCREASING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...A QUICK 1-3" OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...STARTING AT 4 PM...AND ENDING AT 4 AM.

OUTSIDE THE MTNS...THE CONCERN WILL BE A SUDDEN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND GUSTS. THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW 30-40 KT GUST
POTENTIAL...WITH NW WINDS OF 50+ KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
ACRS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT. SO WILL ADD A WIND ADV FOR
THOSE AREAS. IT WILL BE WINDY EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT
WIND ADV AND HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE MTNS LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH TONIGHT ABOVE 3500 FT AND IN THE NRN
MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

OVERNIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP...WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO -5
TO -15 F RANGE IN THE MTNS. HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND CHILL WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL ZONES...AND DECIDED TO ADD THE REST OF THE SRN NC
MTNS...EVEN THO THE TRUE WARNING CRITERIA VALUES (< -15) WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE 3500 FT. THEN ADDED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE
ADJACENT ZONES FROM RABUN GA TO ALEXANDER NC WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL
APPROACH 0 F AT TIMES. WHERE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT...NO WIND ADV WAS ISSUED...AS WILL MENTION THE WIND HAZARD IN
THAT PRODUCT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHUD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (EVEN
SUB-ZERO ABOVE ABOUT 5000 FT) IN THE MTNS...AND IN THE TEENS TO LWR
20S IN THE PIEDMONT. BITTERLY COLD FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY...A VERY COMPLICATED SHORT RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...I USED A
COMPROMISE OF THE 0Z ECMWF AND THE 0Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NW THROUGH THE DAY...SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY DURING THE MORNING WITH
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING COLD LLVL
THICKNESSES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
ON SUNDAY. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
MTNS TO 30 TO 35 DEGREES EAST. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MID JANUARY
AVERAGES...EASILY EXCEEDING THE THRESHOLD FOR CONSIDERED THE FIRST
DAY OF THE UPCOMING COLD WAVE. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RH VALUES.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF A MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH WILL LIKELY SLIDE
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA...RIDGING SW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES EAST. BY DAYBREAK...A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS EAST TX/LA AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE
ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
AN INVERTED TROF AND REGION OF JET DIVERGENCE...EXTENDING AS FAR NE
AS THE GREAT TN VALLEY BY 12Z MON. THE BAND OF FORCING AND MOISTURE
SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MON. I WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO CHC ALONG THE
I-77 CORRIDOR BY MON AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL
THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ONE OF
THE GREATEST CHALLENGES IS DISCERNING THE QPF ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE
RANGES ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT...TO THE POINT THAT A STRAIGHT
COMPROMISE APPEARS TOO HIGH. I WILL RELY ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RESULT INDICATES THAT THE
CWA COULD HAVE A COATING OF LIGHT SNOW BY SUNSET MON. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERED AS THE SECOND DAY OF THE
COLD WAVE.

MONDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY TAKES A LEAP UPWARD. THE ECMWF INDICATES
THAT DRY AIR WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST...LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA DRY BY SUNRISE. THE GFS INDICATES THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER OF INSITU CAD EVENT. IT IS A VERY TOUGH CALL...BUT
THE YEARS I HAVE BEEN AT THIS DESK...I HAVE SEEN THE GIVEN GFS
SCENARIO OF A MILLER A/CAD PLAY OUT MORE OFTEN THAN THE ECMWF/S CLEAN
LOW DEPARTURE. THIS APPROACH WILL CREATE PROBLEMS WITH P-TYPES...AS
A WARM NOSE SLIDE NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW...CREATING A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EAST OF THE MTNS. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH PRECIP FALLING AS A COLD RAIN EAST OF THE
MTNS TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A
NOREASTER AND CAA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION....MIXING PRECIP BACK
TO SNOW. ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DRY...WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. STORM TOTAL SNOW AND ICE
FORECAST ARE UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WINTER STORM
CRITERIA SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS ACROSS
THE LAKELANDS OF SC/GA WILL SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN...YIELDING LOWER
AMOUNTS OF SNOW. THE FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH WPC SNOW
AND ICE VALUES AND CIPS ANALOG MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS VERY COLD.
THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTS THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
I HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER...WITH -20C ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
PROVIDED A LINGERING SNOWPACK...MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY FALL
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY REACH DAILY RECORD LOW
VALUES FROM 1958. WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE THRESHOLD TO HIGHLIGHT
WIND CHILLS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE MTNS
WITH ADVISORY ACROSS THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT...FEATURING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS QUITE WET AND
COLD...THE GFS IS MORE MODERATE. I WILL INTRODUCE SCHC POPS FOR SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS AFTN THRU
THIS EVENING. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRES GRAD ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WSW WINDS THIS AFTN...THEN SHIFTING TO WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND
THE 23-02Z TIME FRAME. SKIES SHUD GENERALLY BE CLEAR...WITH
OCCASIONAL MID CLOUDS OR CIRRUS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KAVL...WHERE
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NW THRU THE PERIOD. KAVL MAY SEE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS WITH NW FLOW MOISTURE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHWRS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 30-50%. SO NO
MENTION OF MVFR CIGS OR SNOW IN THIS TAF.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NW GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT WITH SNOW
FLURRIES WITH MVFR CIGS AND SNOW FLURRIES AFFECTING KAVL SAT NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SNOW MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMBINATION OF WINDY CONDITIONS AND DIURNALLY LOW RH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE AREA BEING GENERALLY FREE OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME...FUEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER EACH
DAY. IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE AGENCIES...ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS OR ALERTS MAY BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF
EAST/CENTRAL GA...MOST OF SC...AND S/CENTRAL NC WITH ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ070>072-082.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ035-065-501>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ036-037-048-051-052-056>059-062>064.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 13, 9:30 PM EST, 7 hours 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

NCZ048-051-052-150230-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HIGH WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF SATURDAY. VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TREES AND POWER LINES TO
FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...A ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.
..SUNDAY...WIND CHILL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS...RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE
VALLEYS...AND 20 BELOW OR COLDER IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
..MONDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-049-050-150230-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.
..SUNDAY...WIND CHILL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
..MONDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ058-150230-
GRAHAM-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HIGH WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF SATURDAY. VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TREES AND POWER LINES TO
FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
..SUNDAY...WIND CHILL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS...RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
..MONDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ059-064-150230-
NORTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HIGH WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF SATURDAY. VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TREES AND POWER LINES TO
FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
..SUNDAY...WIND CHILL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS...RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE
VALLEYS...AND 20 BELOW OR COLDER IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
..MONDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ053-150230-
BUNCOMBE-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.
..SUNDAY...WIND CHILL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS...RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE
VALLEYS...AND 20 BELOW OR COLDER IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
..MONDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ065-501-503-505-507-509-150230-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.
..SUNDAY...WIND CHILL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS...RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
..MONDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ062-063-150230-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HIGH WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF SATURDAY. VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TREES AND POWER LINES TO
FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
..SUNDAY...WIND CHILL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS...RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
..MONDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ502-504-506-150230-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...WILDFIRE DANGER POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGH FIRE DANGER...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF SATURDAY. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL.
..SUNDAY...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY... VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO EARLY SUNDAY.
..MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS BY THE END OF MONDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...WITH
ADDITIONAL LATE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-508-510-150230-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...WILDFIRE DANGER POSSIBLE.
..SUNDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS EARLY SUNDAY.
..MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS BY THE END OF MONDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...WITH
ADDITIONAL LATE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-150230-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-YORK-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...WILDFIRE DANGER POSSIBLE.
..SUNDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY.
..MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS BY THE END OF MONDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH SLEET OR RAIN
DURING THE DAY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>008-010>014-019-150230-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
930 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...WILDFIRE DANGER POSSIBLE.
..SUNDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION...WITH A RETURN TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS EARLY SUNDAY.
..MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS BY THE END OF MONDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE DAY.
..TUESDAY...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

CDG

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 14, 5:00 AM EST, 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-510-142300-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
500 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PLEASE REFER TO YOU LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITY CONCERNING
WHETHER YOU MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE
EXTREME CAUTION.

NED

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 13, 9:05 PM ESTHigh Wind WarningGSPAvery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Henderson, McDowell and 4 more36 hr
Feb 13, 9:21 PM ESTWind AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Cleveland and 17 more36 hr
Feb 14, 4:33 AM ESTWind Chill WarningGSPAvery, Buncombe, Graham, Haywood, Jackson, Macon and 5 more30 hr
Feb 14, 4:33 AM ESTWind Chill AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Burke, Caldwell, Henderson, McDowell, Polk and 1 more30 hr
Feb 14, 4:33 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryGSPAvery, Graham, Haywood, Madison, Mitchell, Swain and 1 more23 hr
Feb 14, 4:51 PM ESTWinter Storm WatchGSPAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 22 more23 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in North Carolina, 2015Red Flag Warnings in South Carolina, 2015Red Flag Warnings in Georgia, 2015Every red flag warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.