Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 27, 2015Haywood County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at May 27, 2015, 9:14 PM EDT for Haywood County, North Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2015, 9:14 PM EDT (01:14 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2015, 11:15 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Haywood County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 27, 9:15 PM EDTFLASH FLOODLake Junaluska, NCCOUNTY ROAD HAS BEEN CLOSED AT THE LAKE JUNALUSKA DAM DUE TO EXCESSIVE FLOW FROM THE LAKE. ALSO VEHICLES HAD BECOME BRIEFLY STRANDED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 19 AND 276 IN DELLWOOD AS THEY STALLED OUT IN HIGH WATER. A PILE OF DIRT AT A CONSTRUCTION SITE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 274 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2015-05-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 886 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2015-05-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -2 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
886 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1204 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

520 
WGUS52 KGSP 280114
FFWGSP
NCC087-280315-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0008.150528T0114Z-150528T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
914 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT
    
* AT 912 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE 
  FALLEN OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED 
  TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...CLYDE...MAGGIE VALLEY...
  SMOKY MOUNTAINS...BALSAM MOUNTAIN...B.R. PARKWAY...SMOKY MOUNTAINS
  TO BALSAM GAP...BLACK BALSAM AREA...GRAVEYARD FIELDS AND SMOKY
  MOUNTAINS...CATALOOCHEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8285 3562 8281 3557 8277 3547 8280
      3541 8275 3539 8278 3532 8283 3529 8292
      3532 8296 3537 8299 3540 8304 3541 8304
      3546 8309 3547 8314 3549 8314 3551 8318
      3562 8318 3570 8290

$$

CDG
3 follow-up statements
721 
WGUS72 KGSP 280149
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
949 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

NCC087-280315-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150528T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYWOOD NC-
949 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT FOR
HAYWOOD COUNTY...

AT 946 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ON 
COUNTY ROAD NEAR THE LAKE JUNALUSKA DAM. UP TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH 
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...CLYDE...MAGGIE VALLEY...SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...BALSAM MOUNTAIN...B.R. PARKWAY...SMOKY MOUNTAINS TO
BALSAM GAP...BLACK BALSAM AREA...GRAVEYARD FIELDS AND SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...CATALOOCHEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8285 3562 8281 3557 8277 3547 8280
      3541 8275 3539 8278 3532 8283 3529 8292
      3532 8296 3537 8299 3540 8304 3541 8304
      3546 8309 3547 8314 3549 8314 3551 8318
      3562 8318 3570 8290

$$

CDG
763 
WGUS72 KGSP 280236
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

NCC087-280315-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150528T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYWOOD NC-
1036 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT FOR
HAYWOOD COUNTY...

AT 1034 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED 
THAT HEAVY RAIN TOTALING 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER THE WARNED 
AREA IN THE LAST 3 HOURS.  FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.  
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...CLYDE...MAGGIE VALLEY...SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...BALSAM MOUNTAIN...B.R. PARKWAY...SMOKY MOUNTAINS TO
BALSAM GAP...BLACK BALSAM AREA...GRAVEYARD FIELDS AND SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...CATALOOCHEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8285 3562 8281 3557 8277 3547 8280
      3541 8275 3539 8278 3532 8283 3529 8292
      3532 8296 3537 8299 3540 8304 3541 8304
      3546 8309 3547 8314 3549 8314 3551 8318
      3562 8318 3570 8290

$$

CDG
212 
WGUS72 KGSP 280310
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

NCC087-280320-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150528T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYWOOD NC-
1110 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HAYWOOD COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 PM
EDT...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED...AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3561 8285 3562 8281 3557 8277 3547 8280
      3541 8275 3539 8278 3532 8283 3529 8292
      3532 8296 3537 8299 3540 8304 3541 8304
      3546 8309 3547 8314 3549 8314 3551 8318
      3562 8318 3570 8290

$$

CDG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 27, 8:01 PM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 8:01 PM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE...A FEW SMALL CELLS CONTINUE TO FIRE INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE...BUT SAT/RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY IS SHORT-LIVED. OVER THE MTNS A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS
FIRED...LIKELY AS DEWPTS REBOUND AND LCL/S LOWER AFTER THE LOSS OF
HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GROW TOO MUCH BUT MIGHT
PERSIST ANOTHER HR OR TWO. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE LINE OF CELLS OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU HAS FIZZLED AS IT ENCOUNTERED MORE STABLE AIR
AND ALSO MOVED INTO AN AREA WITH WEAKER SHEAR...AS SUGGESTED BY CAM
TRENDS. MCS OVER ALABAMA IS HOLDING ITS OWN...BUT PROPAGATING MORE N
THAN E. IT TOO WILL START TO ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR SOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE CAM GUIDANCE. HRRR SHOWS
A SIMILAR FEATURE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT PUSHES NWD INTO TN...BUT
RADAR OBS INDICATE IT IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT THE HRRR THINKS.
SO IN SUMMARY...GENERALLY LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING WE WILL BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER IN SWLY FLOW I RETAINED LOW CHANCES OVER THE MTNS WHERE THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. ALSO COULD SEE SOME REMNANT/WEAK CELLS
FROM THE AL MCS COLD POOL MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE TENN VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT MESOSCALE AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO LOSE STEAM AS
IT APPROACHES OUR AREA TONIGHT IN THE WEAKLY SHEARED/STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THUS...ONLY TOKEN SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
RETAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PWATS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS...AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
ON THE OTHER HAND...INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING LIMITED BY
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE EXTREMELY WEAK. IN
FACT...2-8KM MEAN WINDS ARE LESS THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATEST NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL NOT COVER MUCH AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO POPS IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH PWATS...BUT CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY ROBUST IN THE WEAK LAPSE RATE/
MODESTLY UNSTABLE REGIME. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OF SOME
CONCERN IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND WEAK STEERING
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON FRIDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES. THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA
WILL BE REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WITH ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...
BUT THE RIDGE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD ON GA AND THE CAROLINAS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS...CHIEFLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY TAME. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
RANGE DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROF CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND ERODING THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST...SLOWLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
THEN STALL OUT OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POPS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE GFS DRIVING THE BOUNDARY IN SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME...WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE PRESENT MONDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUGGESTING STORMS WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION ARE POSSIBLE WITH A DIURNAL PEAK. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WILL KEEP HIGHS AND
LOWS WELL ABOVE CLIMO ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER DROPPING HIGHS TO
NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CU SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. A
NEARBY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S AND E OF THE FIELD COULD DRIVE A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT IMPACT WOULD BE LOW...SO HAVE JUST HANDLED THIS WITH
VCSH. THE LOSS OF THE CU SUGGESTS THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CREATE A LOW CIG
OVERNIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE FEATURES CIRRUS CIGS...MAINLY CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVER AL/TN/GA...SPREADING OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
THIS AND DRY SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ARE A BIT BETTER TOMORROW WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LOW VFR CU
WILL DEVELOP MID-MRNG WITH A PROB30 DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT FAVOR S TO SW THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL IS THE ONLY SITE WHICH STANDS A MENTIONABLE CHANCE
OF PRECIP THIS EVENING...HANDLED WITH VCSH...BUT SW FLOW COULD KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLD TSRA OVER SW NC OR ADJACENT NC/SC
AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT OR SO. CIRRUS DEBRIS FILL IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT
AND FLOW IS UNFAVORABLE FOR STRATUS TO CREEP UP FROM THE COAST...BUT
WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR CIGS IN THE RAIN SOAKED AREAS UPSTREAM. ONLY
MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ONLY IN AREAS WHICH REMAINED MORE
MOIST TODAY. LOW VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MRNG THU AND
TSRA CHANCES ARE IN PROB30 RANGE AT ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT LAYS
OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT POCKETS OF MORNING FOG AND/OR
STRATUS MOST DAYS...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA
EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 8:05 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-
505-507-509-SCZ001>006-010>012-019-290015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WESTERN UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH OF TONIGHT.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ007>009-013-
014-290015-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-CHESTER-
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...AND
EASTERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

WIMBERLEY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 27, 4:23 PM EDT, 4 hours 51 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

NCZ048-053-272115-
BUNCOMBE NC-MADISON NC-
423 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MADISON AND
NORTHERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 423 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEICESTER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...WEAVERVILLE...MARS HILL...LEICESTER...WOODFIN...
BARNARDSVILLE...LUCK...WOLF RIDGE...WALNUT AND CANTO.

LAT...LON 3596 8250 3595 8248 3593 8250 3591 8249
      3591 8248 3589 8245 3586 8242 3582 8241
      3582 8236 3581 8235 3575 8233 3573 8232
      3560 8278 3576 8289 3597 8258 3595 8256
      3598 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 240DEG 20KT 3572 8276

CDG
Local storm report, May 27, 5:14 PM EDT, 4 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             1 SE MARSHALL           35.78N 82.67W
05/27/2015  E0.25 INCH       MADISON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER HAD PEA SIZED HAIL AND A WIND GUST THAT BLEW
            SOME SMALL LIMBS AND TWIGS DOWN.

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHALL                35.80N 82.68W
05/27/2015                   MADISON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE FELL ON MAIN STREET IN MARSHALL.

&&

OUTLAW
Special weather statement, May 27, 6:34 PM EDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

NCZ082-272315-
UNION NC-
634 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN UNION
COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 633 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTH OF LANCASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAXHAW...MINERAL SPRINGS...MARVIN...WEDDINGTON...WESLEY CHAPEL...
JAARS AND TRINITY.

LAT...LON 3482 8080 3494 8078 3500 8084 3503 8080
      3503 8077 3482 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 212DEG 10KT 3480 8079

CDG
Special weather statement, May 27, 8:18 PM EDT, 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

NCZ052-280100-
HAYWOOD NC-
818 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HAYWOOD COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 817 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...CLYDE...MAGGIE VALLEY...B.R.
PARKWAY...BLACK BALSAM TO MOUNT PISGAH...B.R. PARKWAY...SMOKY
MOUNTAINS TO BALSAM GAP...B.R. PARKWAY...BALSAM GAP TO BLACK BALSAM
AREA...MOUNT PISGAH AND SUNBURST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 8287 3563 8285 3562 8285 3563 8281
      3554 8277 3547 8280 3544 8278 3542 8275
      3537 8279 3536 8299 3540 8304 3541 8304
      3544 8308 3546 8310 3546 8313 3549 8314
      3551 8318 3553 8317 3570 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 252DEG 8KT 3550 8299

CDG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 27, 8:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHaywood42 min
May 27, 8:40 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPHaywood2 hr
May 27, 10:06 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMadison, Yancey114 min
May 28, 1:40 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPTransylvania50 min
May 28, 3:11 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg34 min
May 28, 3:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg24 min
May 28, 6:01 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAvery, Caldwell3 hr
May 28, 6:14 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGaston31 min
May 28, 6:57 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCatawba33 min
May 28, 6:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell32 min
May 28, 7:37 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCatawba23 min
May 28, 7:38 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke, Catawba2 hr
May 28, 7:40 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRutherford50 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2015Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.