Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

880 
WGUS72 KGSP 291707
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

NCC021-115-199-291930-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150929T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON NC-YANCEY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL MADISON...YANCEY AND NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 103 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN HAS NOW EVOLVED
MOSTLY INTO YANCEY COUNTY WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR.  IN THE WARNED AREA...INTERESTS SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AROUND GREATER BURNSVILLE AND THOUGHOUT THE
SOUTH TOE...LITTLE CRABTREE...AND CANE RIVER BASINS WHERE STREAM
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BURNSVILLE...BLACK MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...B.R. PARKWAY-EAST ASHEVILLE
TO CRAGGY GARDENS...B.R. PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...MOUNT
MITCHELL STATE PARK...MONTREAT...BARNARDSVILLE...WOLF RIDGE AND GREEN
MOUNTAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SLIDES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. BE
ESPECIALLY ALERT IF YOU ARE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY AT THE BASE OF
A MOUNTAIN OR IN A COVE. WATCH FOR LOOSE MOVING SOIL AND ROCKS OR A
SUDDEN INCREASE IN STREAMFLOW. LEAVE THE AREA QUICKLY IF THIS IS
OBSERVED. WHEN DRIVING ALONG ROADS WHERE THE TERRAIN IS STEEP OR
ROCKY...WATCH AND LISTEN FOR FALLING ROCKS...MUD...TREES...AND
DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8234 3604 8230 3599 8225 3602 8220
      3595 8220 3591 8214 3582 8213 3573 8219
      3570 8229 3563 8227 3557 8234 3571 8255
      3597 8260 3595 8256 3598 8251 3607 8242
      3608 8235

$$

CSH

304 
WGUS72 KGSP 291733
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
133 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

NCC115-291738-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150929T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON NC-
133 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT
ELEVATED LEVELS...MAINLY FOR LOCALES WELL EAST OF MARS HILL. LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY STILL BE COVERED WITH
WATER. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS AND HEED ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3599 8225 3602 8220 3595 8220 3591 8214
      3584 8215 3582 8213 3574 8219 3570 8229
      3566 8231 3562 8242 3571 8255 3580 8250
      3582 8241 3590 8245 3596 8245 3599 8240
      3599 8235 3603 8234 3603 8231

$$

NCC021-199-291930-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150929T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YANCEY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-
133 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR
YANCEY AND NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 128 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN IS WINDING
DOWN ACROSS YANCEY COUNTY...BUT NOT AFTER A FRESH TWO INCHES OF RAIN
HAD FALLEN.  EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL BE SEEN ACROSS GREATER BURNSVILLE
AND THOUGHOUT THE SOUTH TOE...LITTLE CRABTREE...AND CANE RIVER
BASINS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BURNSVILLE...B.R. PARKWAY-EAST ASHEVILLE TO CRAGGY GARDENS...MOUNT
MITCHELL STATE PARK...BARNARDSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...BUSICK...
GREEN MOUNTAIN...SWISS AND B.R. PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SLIDES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. BE
ESPECIALLY ALERT IF YOU ARE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY AT THE BASE OF
A MOUNTAIN OR IN A COVE. WATCH FOR LOOSE MOVING SOIL AND ROCKS OR A
SUDDEN INCREASE IN STREAMFLOW. LEAVE THE AREA QUICKLY IF THIS IS
OBSERVED. WHEN DRIVING ALONG ROADS WHERE THE TERRAIN IS STEEP OR
ROCKY...WATCH AND LISTEN FOR FALLING ROCKS...MUD...TREES...AND
DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8225 3602 8220 3595 8220 3591 8214
      3584 8215 3582 8213 3574 8219 3570 8229
      3566 8231 3562 8242 3571 8255 3580 8250
      3582 8241 3590 8245 3596 8245 3599 8240
      3599 8235 3603 8234 3603 8231

$$

CSH

432 
WGUS72 KGSP 291758
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

NCC021-291805-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150929T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BUNCOMBE NC-
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT
ELEVATED LEVELS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY STILL
BE COVERED WITH WATER. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS AND HEED ALL
ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3595 8220 3591 8214 3584 8215 3582 8213
      3579 8217 3578 8216 3574 8219 3571 8228
      3575 8233 3580 8234 3582 8236 3582 8241
      3586 8242 3590 8245 3596 8245 3599 8240
      3599 8235 3601 8229 3599 8225 3602 8220

$$

NCC199-291930-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150929T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YANCEY NC-
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR
YANCEY COUNTY...

AT 155 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN HAD ENDED
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. LOCALIZED TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
TODAY. WITH ONGOING RUNOFF...STREAM LEVELS WILL RISE AND LOCALIZED
ABOVE BANKFULL CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTH TOE...CANE AND LITTLE CRABTREE BASINS. THIS WARNING WILL
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BURNSVILLE...MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...CELO...MICAVILLE...BUSICK...
GREEN MOUNTAIN...SWISS...B.R. PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND
AND RAMSEYTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SLIDES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. BE
ESPECIALLY ALERT IF YOU ARE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY AT THE BASE OF
A MOUNTAIN OR IN A COVE. WATCH FOR LOOSE MOVING SOIL AND ROCKS OR A
SUDDEN INCREASE IN STREAMFLOW. LEAVE THE AREA QUICKLY IF THIS IS
OBSERVED. WHEN DRIVING ALONG ROADS WHERE THE TERRAIN IS STEEP OR
ROCKY...WATCH AND LISTEN FOR FALLING ROCKS...MUD...TREES...AND
DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8220 3591 8214 3584 8215 3582 8213
      3579 8217 3578 8216 3574 8219 3571 8228
      3575 8233 3580 8234 3582 8236 3582 8241
      3586 8242 3590 8245 3596 8245 3599 8240
      3599 8235 3601 8229 3599 8225 3602 8220

$$

CSH

392 
WGUS72 KGSP 291930
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

NCC199-291937-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150929T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YANCEY NC-
330 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YANCEY COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM
EDT...

ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT
ELEVATED LEVELS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY STILL
BE COVERED WITH WATER. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS AND HEED ALL
ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3595 8220 3591 8214 3584 8215 3582 8213
      3579 8217 3578 8216 3574 8219 3571 8228
      3575 8233 3580 8234 3582 8236 3582 8241
      3586 8242 3590 8245 3596 8245 3599 8240
      3599 8235 3601 8229 3599 8225 3602 8220

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF
REGION TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM TENNESSEE.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING. KGSP RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT...SO IT WOULD BE
APPROPRIATE TO RAISE THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE. IN THE MEAN TIME...A
BACK EDGE OF THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST GA...SO SOME REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCE MIGHT BE MADE IF
THAT DOES NOT FILL BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEARLY
STEADY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 7 AM...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
TROUGH AND SPEED MAX. MEANWHILE...UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN QUARTER OF NC. CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ARE QUITE ISOLATED ATTM...THUS IT APPEARS THERE
ARE NO IMMEDIATE HYDRO CONCERNS THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR LIFT WILL BE A PERSISTENT/DEEP...ALBEIT
RELATIVELY WEAK E/SE FLOW...WHICH WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE ALONG WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. DESPITE THE LESS-THAN-IMPRESSIVE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY RETURNS...RAINFALL RATES WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH UP TO 2 IN/HR OBSERVED WITH THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NE GA AND EXTREME NW SC. THE MAIN CONCERN IN TERMS
OF HYDRO ISSUES REVOLVES AROUND THE VERY POOR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC...WHERE AS
MUCH AS 10 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE LATE LAST WEEK...AND STREAM FLOWS
ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. HOURLY FFG/S ARE AROUND 2
INCHES OR LESS ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
INDICATES RATES OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE EASILY DOABLE. THEREFORE...IN
COLLABORATION WITH NWS RNK...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE EASTERN-MOST MTN COUNTIES AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE NC FOOTHILLS.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THIS MORNING...AS THE UPSLOPE IS
EXPECTED TO WANE THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THE WATCH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH UPSLOPE BEGINNING TO WANE...FORCING WILL BE
GENERALLY NEBULOUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE BEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA...IN VICINITY OF WEAK TROPICAL LOW AND REMNANT COASTAL
BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST.

COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AS WEAK
CENTRAL APPS CYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...THUS POPS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL PERSIST OWING TO
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE AXIS OF THE
500MB TROUGH NEAR NASHVILLE TN AT 12Z WED.  THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL FLOWLY MOVE SE DURING THE DAY WED FROM THE MTNS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFTS TO A N TO NW DIRECTION OVER THE MTNS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRECIP DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE.
BY 12Z WED...THE HIGH 2.00+ PWAT VALUES WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF INTERSTATE 77 AND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT
THOSE HIGH VALUES SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.  OUR PWAT
VALUES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1.7 WED PM.  NAM HAS A SHARP GRADIENT
OF CAPE AT 21Z WED ALONG A MOCKSVILLE NC TO GASTONIA TO GREENWOOD.
MAX CAPE OVER 2000 ON NAM SOUTH OF ROCK HILL SC.  GFS HAS SAME
GENERAL IDEA FOR WED AFTERNOON CAPE OVER 1600 FOR SC PIEDMONT.
THEREFORE...KEEPING THUNDER IN PIEDMONT ZONES WED AFTERNOON.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THUR NIGHT...500MB TROUGH DEEPENS JUST
WEST OF OUR AREA AND BY 12Z FRI THE AXIS MAY BE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN NC MTNS. ALL MODELS HAVE SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
CLOSED 500MB LOW NEAR ATL TO CHA AREA BY 12Z FRI. ALL MODELS HAVE
SCATTERED PRECIP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WED NIGHT TO THU NIGHT PERIOD.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A
TONGUE OF INSTABILITY REACHING NE GA FROM THE SOUTH THURS PM...
BUT OVERALL THUNDER CHANGES VERY LOW. WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION ON THIS SYSTEM. IT IS INTERSTING THAT THE NAM
IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE OUTLIER ECMWF AT THE END OF THE NAM
CYCLE FOR THU NIGHT. THE EC AND NAM HAVE INCREASING PWAT VALUES
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHILE BRINGING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPCIAL SYSTEM JAQUINN NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME THIS
SOLUTION COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR I-77 CORRIDOR EASTWARD
GOING INTO FRIDAY AND WEEKEND. FOR NOW...GOING CONSERVATIVE ON
THE POSSIBLE OUTCOME.

MAX TEMPS DROPPING FROM MAINLY LOWER 70S MTNS TO NEAR 80 WED TO
70 TO 75 ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EVENTUAL RESULT OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500MB TROUGH AND CUT OFF
LOW ON FRIDAY AND LINGERING COOL AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS FOR OUR
REGION.  THE END OF THE NAM CYCLE AT 12Z FRIDAY WAS TRENDING TOWARD
THE OUTLIER ECMWF ON DROWING UP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  THE ECMWF HAD HEAVY 1.5 TO 2.5
INCH PER 6 HOUR RAINS OVER THE ILM AND RAH AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS ECMWF SOLUTION HAS A DEEP 500MB CUT OFF LOW OVER GSP BY LATE
SAT. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS DRAMATIC WITH THE CUT OFF 500MB LOW OVER
GSP AND KEEPS ALL HEAVY PRECIP ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST FROM OUTER
BANKS TO DELMARVA FRI AND SAT. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE CUT OFF LOW
NORTH TO NNE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH DECREASING
POPS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS UPSLOPE ALONG TN BORDER
IF ECMWF WORKS OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EARLY
WEEKEND THEN WARM AT BIT TO NEAR MORNAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LESS CLOUDS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VISBY IS
ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE A BIT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF IFR BEGINNING AROUND 13Z OR SO. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECT NO BETTER THAN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCL VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...AS THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...
FLT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN DETERIORATE TO IFR OR WORSE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
AREA DURING MID-WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF A MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW. THEREFORE...LOW RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       MED   63%     MED   62%     MED   78%     MED   76%
KGSP       MED   79%     LOW   51%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  99%     MED   73%     HIGH  89%     MED   76%
KHKY       MED   75%     LOW   52%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       MED   77%     LOW   47%     MED   71%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH  82%     LOW   52%     LOW   56%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-035-049-050-
     053-065-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510-300900-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
603 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THOSE LOCATIONS MOST PRONE TO FLOODING WOULD BE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BE PRONE TO FLOODING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-300900-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
603 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND ISOLATED FLOOD ISSUES...CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THOSE LOCATIONS MOST PRONE WOULD BE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...OTHER
LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BE
PRONE TO FLOODING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>003-300900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
603 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ISOLATED FLOOD ISSUES...ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THOSE LOCATIONS MOST PRONE TO FLOODING WOULD BE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BE PRONE TO FLOODING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
TO OUR OFFICE.

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

NCZ052-053-064-065-509-291515-
HAYWOOD NC-BUNCOMBE NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-
POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF TRANSYLVANIA...
BUNCOMBE...HAYWOOD...WESTERN POLK AND HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115
AM EDT...

AT 1015 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING HEAVY SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST FROM THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. LOCALZATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 AND I-26 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. BE WARY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND ELEVATED STREAM
LEVELS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...BREVARD...WAYNESVILLE...EAST
ASHEVILLE...ARDEN...WEST ASHEVILLE...NORTH ASHEVILLE...BLACK MOUNTAIN
AND MILLS RIVER.

LAT...LON 3569 8229 3559 8229 3555 8222 3545 8228
      3540 8227 3538 8221 3529 8229 3521 8227
      3518 8237 3521 8239 3517 8244 3513 8268
      3507 8276 3507 8286 3522 8294 3530 8292
      3538 8300 3565 8313 3569 8281 3579 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 1415Z 240DEG 49KT 3517 8282

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1103 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

NCZ048-053-291600-
BUNCOMBE NC-MADISON NC-
1103 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF MADISON
AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EDT...

AT 1102 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. BE WARY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND ELEVATED STREAM
LEVELS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MARSHALL...EAST ASHEVILLE...ARDEN...WEST
ASHEVILLE...NORTH ASHEVILLE...BLACK MOUNTAIN...WOODFIN...FLETCHER AND
SWANNANOA.

LAT...LON 3606 8262 3597 8261 3598 8250 3591 8249
      3582 8241 3582 8236 3570 8229 3559 8229
      3553 8220 3548 8224 3550 8233 3542 8254
      3543 8254 3544 8278 3557 8277 3575 8296
      3588 8290 3593 8292 3593 8281 3600 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1502Z 180DEG 0KT 3556 8273

CSH