Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

August 19, 2015Mecklenburg County, Union County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Aug 19, 2015, 6:08 PM EDT for Mecklenburg County, Union County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Aug 19, 2015, 6:08 PM EDT (22:08 UTC)
Expired
Aug 19, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Mecklenburg County, NC, Union County, NC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Aug 19, 6:40 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 Ene Stallings, NCSEVERAL WATER RESCUES UNDERWAY IN THIS AREA WITH NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED. ROADS MENTIONED WITH FLOODING RED LANTERN ROAD...BRIARWOOD COURT...REDWOOD...INDIAN TRAIL FAIRVIEW. FLOOD WATERS CROSSING THE ROAD OR HEAVY PONDING. SPOTTER CALLED TO SAY HE HAD NEVER SEE
Aug 19, 7:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 Sse Mint Hill, NCGAUGE READING ON GOOSE CREEK AT HIGHWAY 1524 NEAR INDIAN TRAIL REACHED 13 FEET...SETTING A NEW RECORD STAGE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 11.29 FEET SET ON 7/15/2014.
Aug 19, 8:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 Wsw Fairview, NCGAUGE ON GOOSE CREEK ON STATE ROAD 1525 NEAR INDIAN TRAIL MEASURED 11.82 FEET...SETTING A NEW RECORD STAGE. A 500 YEAR FLOOD IS 12 FEET. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 10.24 FEET OBSERVED 7/16/2014.
Aug 19, 8:15 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 N Fairview, NCGAUGE ON GOOSE CREEK ONE MILE NORTH OF FAIRVIEW WAS 10.04 FEET...FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET. AT 9 FEET...WATER FROM GOOSE CREEK WILL FLOOD ROADS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 218 AND 601.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 32 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-08-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 206 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-08-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 105 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
206 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
594 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
78 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

103 
WGUS52 KGSP 192208
FFWGSP
NCC119-179-200130-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0022.150819T2208Z-150820T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH
  CAROLINA...
  CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT
    
* AT 606 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN
  HAVE FALLEN SINCE 430 PM. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
  SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  MONROE...MATTHEWS...MINT HILL...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...
  STALLINGS...UNIONVILLE...WESLEY CHAPEL...WINGATE AND LAKE PARK.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE STALLINGS AREA WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
CREEKS SUCH AS CROOKED CREEK...GOOSE CREEK AND PADDLE BRANCH.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE CREEKS WILL BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AROUND SARDIS CHURCH...SECREST SHORTCUT...
STALLINGS...UNIONVILLE-INDIAN TRAIL...LAWYERS...FAIRVIEW AND HOWIE
BOTTOM ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8049 3503 8085 3525 8067 3523 8059
      3518 8049 3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044
      3517 8042 3516 8041 3517 8039 3517 8036

$$

NED
3 follow-up statements
850 
WGUS72 KGSP 192258
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

NCC119-179-200130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150820T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-
658 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES...

AT 652 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN SINCE 4 PM. 

HEAVY RAIN IN THE STALLINGS AREA HAS RESULTED IN RAPID RISES ON
LOCAL CREEKS SUCH AS CROOKED CREEK...GOOSE CREEK AND PADDLE BRANCH.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE CREEKS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
MANY AREAS NORTH OF INDIAN TRAIL AND MINT HILL AREAS. MOTORIST
SHOULD USE CAUTION AROUND SARDIS CHURCH...SECREST SHORTCUT...
STALLINGS...UNIONVILLE-INDIAN TRAIL...LAWYERS...FAIRVIEW AND HOWIE
BOTTOM ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8049 3503 8085 3525 8067 3523 8059
      3518 8049 3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044
      3517 8042 3516 8041 3517 8039 3517 8036

$$

NED
432 
WGUS72 KGSP 192356
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
756 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

NCC119-179-200130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150820T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-
756 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES...

AT 750 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. FIVE TO
SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 4 PM. FLASH FLOODING IS
OCCURRING.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE STALLINGS AREA WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
CREEKS SUCH AS CROOKED CREEK...GOOSE CREEK AND PADDLE BRANCH.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE CREEKS WILL BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AROUND SARDIS CHURCH...SECREST SHORTCUT...
STALLINGS...UNIONVILLE-INDIAN TRAIL...LAWYERS...FAIRVIEW AND HOWIE
BOTTOM ROADS.

STREAM GAUGES ON GOOSE CREEK NEAR INDIAN TRAIL AND FAIRVIEW HAVE
RISEN TO RECORD STAGES. THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY EXCEED FLOODING THAT
OCCURRED JULY 15TH...2014. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8049 3503 8085 3525 8067 3523 8059
      3518 8049 3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044
      3517 8042 3516 8041 3517 8039 3517 8036

$$

NED
509 
WGUS72 KGSP 200131
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

NCC119-179-200140-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150820T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-
931 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG AND CENTRAL
UNION COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MECKLENBURG COUNTY HAS EXPIRED. THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR UNION COUNTY WILL BE REPLACED WITH A FLOOD
WARNING.

LAT...LON 3489 8049 3503 8085 3525 8067 3523 8059
      3518 8049 3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044
      3517 8042 3516 8041 3517 8039 3517 8036

$$

NED

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 19, 5:19 PM EDT, 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 19, 5:19 PM EDT, 49 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 510PM WED...UPDATED FORECAST TO CONCENTRATE PRECIPITATION TO
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA PER RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE.  RADAR
HAS HAD HEAVIEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH SOME
RESIDUAL ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. HEAVIER STORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AGREES WITH HIGHER CAPE ANALYSIS IN THAT AREA.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENEROUS...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER.  SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER AFTER 3Z THIS EVENING.

AS OF 230 PM WED...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE AND
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MORE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SPC
MESOANAL SHOWING CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. ALSO...THE DCAPE HIGHER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS NOW
HAVING INCREASED TO OVER 1000J EASTERN AREAS.  HENCE...SEVERE STORM
CHANCES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL PULSE SEVERE
STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG SIDE THE LOCALIZED HYDRO
THREAT.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...A VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH IS THE
PRIMARY TRIGGER OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. NVA BEHIND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MINIMUM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE CLIMO.

ON THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...THERE STILL SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL/DOWNSLOPE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCT. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE LESS CAPE...SO SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS ON THE LOW END. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY EVENING AMIDST AN ONGOING COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROF EJECTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BROAD RIDGING
PREVAILS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF.  AS STATED ABOVE...A
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO/THROUGH THE NC HIGH TERRAIN
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING OUT
AHEAD.  IN RESPONSE...EXPECTING ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AT FCST INITIALIZATION POSSIBLY AIDED BY ENHANCED SHEARING
AND VORT ADVECTION ALOFT.  SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK/DEPTH OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM ALONG WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY WASHING OUT OVER THE LOWCOUNTRY/MIDLANDS
BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO ADVECT IN FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE SLIDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A RESULT...DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WARRANT DECREASED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC.  DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO ANY REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE...LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGH PROBABILITIES AND
THUS PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  NEVERTHELESS...PROFILES ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME THEREFORE NOTHING
MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE EXPECTED.  SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE NICEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD WITH MODELS INDICATING FURTHER DRY AIR INTRUSION
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE APPS.
MOSGUIDE AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN THE RAW NAM INDICATES DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHWEST NC INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR.  THUS EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALLOWING
FOR A BEAUTIFUL MID/LATE AUGUST DAY.  THAT SAID...NAM GUID DOES
FAVORS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR LOW END DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST GA...THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH WITH MAX HEATING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SUNDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN USA...WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY INTO TUESDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AS THE
CANADIAN LOW APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC....BY WHICH TIME SOME
PROGRESSION TAKES PLACE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE THE RIDGE UPSTREAM CROSSES THE PLAINS AND EXTENDS
INTO THE GULF STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...SUNDAY STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM FORM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON MONDAY...MOVING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY TUESDAY...WHERE IT STALLS
AND REMAINS INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR AREA CAN EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A DRYING TREND IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE AS THE FRONT DOES NOT STALL UNTIL EAST OF
OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION AS
RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF COVERAGE. CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT TEMPO TSRA WILL OCCUR FROM 19Z-23Z WITH PERHAPS SOME
MORE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A
VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH. IFR RESTRICTIONS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS. AFTER ABOUT 03Z PRECIP SHOULD END WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. GUIDANCE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS BUT NOT CONVICNED IT WILL NOT OCCUR...SO MENTIONED SOME
LIGHT FOG WITH SCT010 CIRCA 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT WITH TEMPO TSRA AND
POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRECIP
SHOULD END BY 03Z. EXPECT ONLY PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO TAF EXCEPT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORSM ARE EXPECTED TO END
THURSDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSRUE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  81%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG/WJM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 19, 3:40 PM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-201945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
340 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK
HEATING. SOME OF THESE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS AND OR STORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
ALREADY SOAKED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

CDG

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 19, 2:33 PM EDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

SCZ002-005-191915-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
233 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF PICKENS...OR NEAR LAKE KEOWEE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASLEY...PICKENS...SIX MILE...LAKE KEOWEE...KEOWEE TOXAWAY STATE
PARK...TABLE ROCK STATE PARK...JOCASSEE GORGES...LAKE JOCASSEE...
LIBERTY AND PUMPKINTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8290 3495 8291 3499 8294 3508 8278
      3507 8278 3505 8274 3506 8270 3507 8258
      3507 8257 3505 8260 3501 8260 3501 8254
      3498 8253 3498 8255 3497 8253 3488 8249
      3482 8249 3478 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 255DEG 20KT 3489 8287

CDG
Local storm report, Aug 19, 3:29 PM EDT, 2 hours 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N STATESVILLE         35.86N 80.87W
08/19/2015                   IREDELL            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWERLINES DOWN AND ARCING ACROSS WHITE FARM ROAD. A TREE
            WAS DOWN BLOCKING THE ROADWAY NEAR THE REPORTED DOWNED
            POWERLINES.

&&

NED
Special weather statement, Aug 19, 3:37 PM EDT, 2 hours 31 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

SCZ002-005-006-010-192000-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
ANDERSON SC-
337 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL ANDERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 4 MILES NORTH OF EASLEY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...EASLEY...BEREA...WELCOME...POWDERSVILLE...
TRAVELERS REST...FURMAN UNIVERSITY...WEST GREENVILLE...PARIS MOUNTAIN
STATE PARK AND CHERRYDALE POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8269 3498 8265 3498 8255 3497 8254
      3498 8251 3498 8233 3471 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 279DEG 11KT 3488 8259

NED
Local storm report, Aug 19, 4:01 PM EDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E STONY POINT         35.86N 80.95W
08/19/2015                   IREDELL            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A TREE AND A POWER LINE DOWN ON A GARAGE.

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N STATESVILLE         35.85N 80.88W
08/19/2015                   IREDELL            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A TREE DOWN ON KINGSWOOD ROAD. MORE TREES DOWN IN THIS
            SAME AREA ALONG NEARBY TURNERSBURG HIGHWAY.

&&

OUTLAW
Special weather statement, Aug 19, 4:14 PM EDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

NCZ036-056-057-192045-
ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-
414 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ROWAN...
EAST CENTRAL CATAWBA AND CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 414 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF STATESVILLE...OR NEAR LAKE NORMAN STATE PARK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STATESVILLE...TROUTMAN...LAKE NORMAN STATE PARK...CLEVELAND...
CATAWBA...LAKE NORMAN...SHERRILLS FORD AND DOOLIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE NORMAN IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8092 3569 8108 3592 8092 3574 8067
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 220DEG 11KT 3569 8095

NED
Local storm report, Aug 19, 5:50 PM EDT, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW CHARLOTTE         35.19N 80.87W
08/19/2015                   MECKLENBURG        NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TREE FELL ON A HOUSE ON SCALEYBARK ROAD. AFTER HEAVY
            RAIN...A WIND GUST OF ROUGHLY 30 MPH PUSHED THE TREE OVER
            WHICH HAD A ROOT SYSTEM THAT MAY HAVE BEEN DETERIORATED
            FROM THE EROSIVE RUNOFF.

&&

OUTLAW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 18, 8:18 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg, Union117 min
Aug 18, 8:41 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPUnion3 hr
Aug 18, 8:55 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPDavie, Iredell, Rowan2 hr
Aug 18, 9:17 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPUnion2 hr
Aug 18, 11:38 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPUnion3 hr
Aug 19, 1:47 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander28 min
Aug 19, 2:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPAlexander, Iredell49 min
Aug 19, 2:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRutherford47 min
Aug 19, 2:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPDavie, Iredell, Rowan61 min
Aug 19, 4:14 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell31 min
Aug 19, 4:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCabarrus, Rowan66 min
Aug 19, 4:51 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPCabarrus, Rowan4 hr
Aug 19, 5:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPDavie48 min
Aug 19, 5:54 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg, Union2 hr
Aug 19, 6:49 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMecklenburg3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2015Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.