Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

249 
WGUS72 KGSP 110443
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1243 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

NCC023-110630-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150611T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BURKE NC-
1243 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY...

AT 1240 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS 
OCCURRED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL EXPECTED. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY 
AS RUNOFF CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 8181 3595 8180 3594 8178 3593 8178
      3592 8175 3588 8171 3586 8168 3578 8168
      3573 8184 3576 8191 3580 8194 3589 8191
      3596 8194 3599 8190

$$

CDG

781 
WGUS72 KGSP 110608
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

NCC023-110630-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150611T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BURKE NC-
208 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY...

AT 206 AM EDT...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE WARNED 
AREA ALLOWING ANY HIGH WATERS TO RECEDE.  THUS THE WARNING WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING
PROPERTY...OR LANDSLIDES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR
MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 8181 3595 8180 3594 8178 3593 8178
      3592 8175 3588 8171 3586 8168 3578 8168
      3573 8184 3576 8191 3580 8194 3589 8191
      3596 8194 3599 8190

$$

CDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE WARMEST LEVELS SO FAR
THIS YEAR WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEARLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE HAVE
FOCUSED THE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ACROSS THE NRN TIER LATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY N OF INTERSTATE 40. EXPECT PROFILES TO SLOWLY
STABILIZE WITH LINGERING TSRA DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. MAINLY HIGHER DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST EARLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MAY FILL IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY PHASE INTO
THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AS FLOW
DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. ALSO...A WEAK VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ON THU PROVIDING SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT. THAT COMBINED
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND S TO SW FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE MORE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SW NC MOUNTAINS WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MOST GRID
FIELDS. MAX TEMPS ON THU ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...ON FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER APPALACHIAN REGION WILL SEE RISING PRESSURE FROM THE
BERMUDA HIGH...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE MID LEVELS...HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SOUTHWEST LLVL
WINDS MAY SUPPORT A SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MTNS.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY
LIMIT COVERAGE TO A SCHC. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...LLVL WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE WSW...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A LEE TROF IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND
GREATER INSTABILITY. TO THE EAST...CAPE VALUES APPEAR LESS THAN 500
J/KG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CIN VALUES PERSISTING INTO THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST POPS RANGING FROM A CHC NEAR
THE TN LINE...TAPERING TO LESS THAN A SCHC EAST. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ONE TO TWO DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY/S VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CENTER OF A
MID LEVEL RIDGE. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIMITING CAPE VALUES TO 1000
J/KG OR LESS EACH AFTERNOON. I WILL INDICATE DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS. ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL REMAIN SCHC OR
LESS. THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE THE WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 6 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRFIELD LATE THIS EVENING. MODEL PROFILES AND MOS SIGNALS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MIXED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN THE
LIGHT SRLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN NEAR THE AIRFIELD HAS ADDED
FURTHER MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS SO WILL HEDGE TOWARD SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH FEW020 CIRCA 08Z. EXPECT CUMULUS CIGS TO DEVELOP IN
THE SRLY FLOW WITH HEATING ON THU...WITH PROB30 TSRA DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHANCES REMAIN BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY
LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT PROFILES TO STABILIZE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM IN THE LIGHT
SRLY FLOW...AND ALL TAF SITES WILL GET A FORECAST FEW TO SCT MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY CIGS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SW MTN VALLEYS...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TAF SITE. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM KAVL
TO KAND AND IN ANY LOCATIONS WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN FELL THIS
EVENING. VFR CUMULUS CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING AND SRLY FLOW ON
THU...WITH PROB30 TSRA THROUGHOUT MID TO LATE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. WIDELY SCT/ISOLD
AFTN TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. EACH MRNG
SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY OCCUR PARTICULARLY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN TSRA THE PREVIOUS DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
937 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-120145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
937 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1040 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

NCZ503-504-110330-
GREATER BURKE NC-BURKE MOUNTAINS NC-
1040 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

AT 1039 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORGANTON...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LAKE JAMES. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HALF INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

RAPID RISES TO NEAR BANKFULL ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE JOHNS RIVERS AND
WARRIOR FORK. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE JAMES...LAKE JAMES STATE PARK...TABLE ROCK AND OAK HILL.

LAT...LON 3595 8178 3593 8178 3593 8175 3588 8171
      3587 8169 3578 8172 3578 8194 3582 8195
      3585 8192 3588 8191 3591 8191 3595 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 180DEG 0KT 3586 8184

HG