Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
741 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/AVIATION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPE AND LI...AND THE CRAVEN BROOKS
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF
RAPID AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NUMEROUS HI-RES MODEL
SIM REFS REVEAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERHEAD...WHICH RADAR IS
PRESENTLY INDICATING. CONCERN FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES
REMAINS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...GIVEN VERY HIGH SHEAR AND CAPE IN
THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS VERY HIGH SIG TOR PARAMETERS PRESENT FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI (4 TO 6). VALUES THIS HIGH DO
SUPPORT STRONGER TORNADOES IF CONVECTION GROWS SEVERE IN THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HOURS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN
CLEARING AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES
AND HELICITY VALUES CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY RECOVERS FROM THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE SHOWS
THE STORMS ARRIVING BY 9 PM AND ENDING AROUND 1 AM. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURSTS...WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL FROM THE
MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.

DRYING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT WITH COLD FROPA AND FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN AND RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT...SO RAIN IS COMING BACK FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

MAIN EVENT IN THE EXTENDED IS A BATCH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS AN MCS...TO AFFECT AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOLER AND CLOUDY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

TEMPO GROUPS IN PLACE TO HANDLE WHAT MAY BE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
STORMS YET TONIGHT...MAINLY THROUGH 04Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS WERE INTRODUCED IN THE TEMPOS...THOUGH SEVERE STORMS
COULD PUSH 50 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY GIVEN THE
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL LOWER MI. ALSO MONITORING UPSTREAM STORMS IN WI THAT
ARE STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE NEARSHORE ZONES. STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS MIXING DOWN THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ABOUT 8 PM TO 10 PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. REPORTS SO FAR HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE INCH IN 30-45 MINUTES. BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OVERWHELM STORM DRAINS AND CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
4 PM OR SO...WITH A LULL EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 8 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL.

BEYOND LATE THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW.
WE COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

MESOSCALE...HOVING
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
454 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-232100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
454 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES...HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ844>849-232100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
454 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES THIS EVENING.

EVEN WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING COULD
GUST OVER 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS.

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
559 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW ONONDAGA          42.47N 84.58W
06/22/2015                   INGHAM             MI   911 CALL CENTER

            CENTRAL DISPATCH INFORMED US THAT A TREE HAD
            FALLEN AND BLOCKED GALE ROAD NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF GALE ROAD AND KINNEVILLE
            ROAD. THE TREE HAD BEEN REMOVED BY A LOCAL
            FARMER.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
605 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONCORD                 42.18N 84.64W
06/22/2015                   JACKSON            MI   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
610 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRING ARBOR            42.21N 84.56W
06/22/2015                   JACKSON            MI   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN
            FROM SPRING ARBOR TO SANDSTONE. RADAR
            INDICATED HIGH WIND GUSTS MAY HAVE AFFECTED
            COMMUNITIES NEAR AND SOUTH OF JACKSON FROM
            ABOUT 3:30PM THROUGH 4:00PM.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
641 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALBION                  42.25N 84.75W
06/22/2015                   CALHOUN            MI   911 CALL CENTER

            CENTRAL DISPATCH HAS RECEIVED REPORTS OF
            SEVERAL TREES DOWN, MAINLY AROUND THE ALBION
            AREA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
711 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S PULLMAN             42.45N 86.09W
06/22/2015                   ALLEGAN            MI   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN IN LEE WITH A GUST
            THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
714 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALLEGAN                 42.53N 85.85W
06/22/2015                   ALLEGAN            MI   911 CALL CENTER

            DISPATCH STATED THAT POWER LINES WERE
            REPORTED DOWN IN ALLEGAN TOWNSHIP. TIME OF
            OCCURRENCE ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JAM