Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

671 
WWUS53 KGRR 271835
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
235 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

MIC025-075-271845-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150527T1845Z/
JACKSON MI-CALHOUN MI-
235 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES...

AT 235 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LESLIE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...             SPRING ARBOR...        SANDSTONE...
CONCORD...             SPRINGPORT...          PARMA...
RIVES JUNCTION...      TOPKINS...             MUNITH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4214 8471 4242 8472 4242 8413 4232 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 257DEG 40KT 4237 8430 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

COBB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK AWAY FROM
THE REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CAUSING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK. SOME EVIDENCE THAT SEVERE THREAT
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ONE THING TO WATCH IS
STRONG HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLL EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THAT IS LIKELY BEING SOLENOIDALLY
ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY MARK THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THUNDERSTORM EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE STABLE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOVED ONSHORE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MORE DEVELOPED LINE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. STILL THINKING IN LINE WITH SPC THAT THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

MODELS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE AGAIN
TODAY...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A HOLLAND TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE.
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT
SHOW MUCH CAPE ABOVE THE FREEING LEVEL. AS A RESULT I WILL
DOWNPLAY THE THUNDER RISK THERE. FURTHER SOUTHEAST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY LOWERS TO AT LEAST -3 DEG C AND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS JACKSON. THUS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM COULD OCCUR THERE.

I DO HAVE HIGHER POPS NORTHWEST OF GRAND RAPIDS...TOWARD
LUDINGTON. MODELS SUGGESTS THE TROWAL WILL PIVOT INTO THE
LUDINGTON REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM ON ANY
LAKE BREEZE THAT FORMS. SHOULD BE WARM GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING
WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT SHOWS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH POPS WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING. BETTER
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR
TWO WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND BRING CLEARING SKIES
SATURDAY AND COOL AND FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS COLDER LOCATIONS OF
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN UNDERGO A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI IMPACTING MAINLY
KMKG THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO
KBTL AND KLAN...BUT TRACK QUICKLY EAST. THE MAIN IMPACT SITE
SHOULD BE KJXN. EVEN WITHOUT STORMS...THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGHOUT SW LOWER WITH SOME VALUES OVER 30 KNOTS LIKELY TODAY.

MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
ON THIS HAPPENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. HOWEVER...DID ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY BASED ON LOW VISIBILITIES SEEN
ON AREA WEBCAMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE LOW AND STABLE ACROSS THE AREA. HAD 1/2 TO 3/4
OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS MOST RECENT SYSTEM... AND
SOME SMALL UP TICS NOTED ON AREA RIVERS. EXPECTING NO FLOODING
THROUGH THE WEEK.

A POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (OVER AN INCH) MAY
PUSH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL BY NEXT WEEK... IF
THESE AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ845>849.

&&

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
601 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-281015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
601 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EAST OF A LANSING TO KALAMAZOO LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY WITH LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-281015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
601 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND SWIMMING ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS AND WAVES COULD BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION THERE COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY CONTAIN WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

MIZ059-065>067-071>074-271800-
INGHAM MI-EATON MI-VAN BUREN MI-CLINTON MI-BARRY MI-CALHOUN MI-
JACKSON MI-KALAMAZOO MI-
1205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH 400 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
KALAMAZOO...LANSING...BATTLE CREEK...EATON RAPIDS...MASON...MARSHAL...
AND JACKSON.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATE POWER OUTAGES...
  FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
  BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND NUISANCE FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS. ALLOW 30 MINUTES OF TIME BEFORE
RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. PLEASE REPORT ANY OBSERVED DAMAGE TO
YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 4207 8606 4243 8554 4277 8489 4277 8484
      4280 8484 4303 8437 4278 8436 4278 8416
      4207 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 243DEG 29KT 4232 8560

COBB