Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

382 
WWUS53 KGRR 031155
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
755 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MIC085-107-123-133-031230-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-150903T1230Z/
OSCEOLA MI-NEWAYGO MI-LAKE MI-MECOSTA MI-
755 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...NORTHEASTERN NEWAYGO...SOUTHEASTERN LAKE AND
WESTERN MECOSTA COUNTIES...

AT 754 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF REED CITY TO 11 MILES WEST OF BIG
RAPIDS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIG RAPIDS...          EVART...               BALDWIN...
REED CITY...           LUTHER...              CHASE...
PARIS...               HERSEY...              LE ROY...
STANWOOD...            RODNEY...              IDLEWILD...
HAWKINS...             BITELY...              AVONDALE...
NIRVANA...             CHIPPEWA LAKE...       WOODVILLE...
WOODLAND PARK...       ASHTON...              

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4400 8509 4395 8509 4347 8550 4347 8556
      4379 8602 4408 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1154Z 271DEG 25KT 4396 8543 4373 8571 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MJS

898 
WWUS53 KGRR 031221
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
821 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MIC085-107-123-133-031230-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-150903T1230Z/
OSCEOLA MI-NEWAYGO MI-LAKE MI-MECOSTA MI-
821 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...
NORTHEASTERN NEWAYGO...SOUTHEASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN MECOSTA COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 830 AM EDT...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4400 8509 4395 8509 4347 8550 4347 8556
      4379 8602 4408 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 289DEG 21KT 4396 8543 4373 8571 

$$

MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREEN BAY REGION WILL TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN
WITHOUT THIS LIFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH THE ADDED LIFT ARRIVING WE
WILL SEE EXPANDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. LAKE MI WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
I FEATURED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THIS POINT WITH LIMITED SHEAR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LOCAL AND BRIEF. HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN THESE RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN
TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. I DID KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
THINKING THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

I DID ADD FOG TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES IN A
MOIST AIRMASS...THINKING AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AFTER A HOT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY (MAYBE 90 AGAIN?)...SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
THAT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWING DOWN THIS FRONT IN RESPONSE TO H500 RIDGING TRYING TO HANG
ON WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERING NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG BY 18Z MON.
THIS MAY WASH OUT THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION...BECOMING STATIONARY
FOR A TIME AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY.

WINDS FROM H500 AND BELOW WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES. WITH
WEAKER WIND FIELDS...COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE LIKELY MODE FOR ANY STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE MORE
RAINFALL THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON TUESDAY (MID 40S
FOR GRR OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) AND AS SUCH THE PRECIP IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE. UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION (IFR) MAINLY FOR LAN AND JXN
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. THE MITIGATING
FACTOR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WISCONSIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS
12AM-1AM AND MORE LIKELY BY 4AM OR 5AM. I WILL NOT MENTION IFR FOR
THE OTHER TAF SITES...OUTSIDE OF LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO VIS IN
HEAVIER TSRA...WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED IN AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY.
WILL NEED TO CARRY AT LEAST VCTS FOR EVERY LOCATION AS THE HIGH
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY FROM 09Z TO 16Z. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WINDS AND WAVES LOW. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE WAVE HEIGHTS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY... OR PERHAPS A MORE EXPANSIVE CLUSTER. A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CITY OF MASON PRODUCED RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HALF HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN IN MOST LOCATIONS... SOME
STORMS MAY PERSIST LOCALLY AND PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
354 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-
040800-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-MASON-LAKE-
OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-
GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-
VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
354 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WHERE STORMS
PERSIST. ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO STAY ISOLATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISKS. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING STRIKES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE MAIN FORECASTED RISKS ARE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
548 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MIZ037-031115-
MASON MI-
548 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 547 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANISTEE TO 26 MILES WEST OF SCOTTVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCOTTVILLE...          FOUNTAIN...            FREE SOIL...
FREESOIL...            CUSTER...              WALHALLA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4417 8604 4382 8604 4381 8610 4382 8641
      4397 8646 4401 8649 4406 8651 4412 8643
      4418 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0947Z 277DEG 15KT 4420 8648 4392 8681

MJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
708 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MIZ038-039-031215-
OSCEOLA MI-LAKE MI-
708 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 707 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOXEYVILLE TO 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SCOTTVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EVART...               BALDWIN...             REED CITY...
MARION...              LUTHER...              HIGHLAND...
CHASE...               HERSEY...              LE ROY...
TUSTIN...              GIBOS CORNERS...       BRISTOL...
DIGHTON...             IDLEWILD...            PARK LAKE...
INA...                 PISGAH HEIGHTS...      AVONDALE...
NIRVANA...             IRONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8509 4382 8509 4382 8604 4417 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 273DEG 30KT 4415 8575 4388 8608

MJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
716 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW LUDINGTON         43.95N 86.45W
09/03/2015  M1.25 INCH       MASON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CALLED IN TO REPORT HEAVY RAIN THAT
            FELL IN APPROXIMATELY 40 MINUTES TIME. TWO
            MEASUREMENTS WERE TAKEN VIA ELECTRONIC GAUGE
            AND PHYSICAL GAUGE, BOTH OF WHICH INDICATED
            SIMILAR AMOUNTS.

&&

JAM