Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.

RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHTING UP ACROSS THE UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST LOWER. A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CWA WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF JUICE TO WORK WITH. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE CLOSE TO 5K J/KG AND LI/S
AROUND -9C. SHEAR IS A BIT LACKING THOUGH AROUND 20-25 KTS...BUT IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MEANDERING ITS WAY
SOUTH AND LAYS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...BUT IT/S BEGINNING TO BE
INDISTINGUISHABLE. A BETTER KICKER MAY BE THE SHORT WAVE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE
POTENTIAL FOR PULSE TYPE STORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE
THAT A COUPLE COULD BECOME STRONG. THE THREAT WILL FADE AS
THERMODYNAMICS DECREASE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED EAST OF US-131 FROM 4-8 PM.

SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS WASHING OUT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 90. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
RESULT IN HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
WAVE ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.   MESOSCALE
FEATURES ALTER TIMING STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION.  WILL
FEATURE THE  HIGHEST POPS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THIS PASSING WAVE.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WE WILL SEE WELL ABOVE  NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
VALUES IN THE MID 80S LIKELY FOR MONDAY.  HOWEVER BEHIND THE FRONT A
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

ONCE THE EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FADE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BEFORE FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT
THINKING IS MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AT 06Z OR
SO...WITH THE CHANCE FOR IFR AS WELL. THINK THE IFR MAY BE
CONTAINED TOWARDS KLAN AND KJXN WHERE SOME EVENING RAIN HAS
OCCURRED. THE FOG WILL PEAK AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEN DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING A STRATUS
DECK...IT SHOULD BE MORE VSBY RELATED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS.

AS FOR THE STORMS THIS EVENING...THEY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
KLAN AND KJXN TAF SITES. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z-
04Z...BUT COME TO AN END AFTER THAT. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE
STORMS OVER THE LAKE...BUT WE DID NOT INTRODUCE THAT INTO THE 00Z
SET OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

NO MARINE HAZARDS DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

RIVERS HAVE MOSTLY RECOVERED FROM RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK...
THOUGH SOME SITES IN THE UPPER GRAND BASIN ARE RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY IN MID MICHIGAN WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING IS NOT PARTICULARLY LIKELY AS MOST STORMS
WILL TEND TO RAIN OUT OR PROPAGATE ELSEWHERE BEFORE TOO LONG.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
130 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-150800-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
130 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.  THE
STORMS WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND STALL NEAR
MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.

LMZ844>849-150800-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
130 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON  AND EVENING.  GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS.  CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO
POSE A RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND STALL NEAR
MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.

WDM MJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
812 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             CHARLOTTE               42.56N 84.84W
08/14/2015  M1.00 INCH       EATON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL OF 5/8THS OF AN INCH FELL JUST
            BEFORE 8PM BEFORE INCREASING IN SIZE TO ONE INCH.

&&

JMAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
815 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             3 NW GRAND LEDGE        42.78N 84.79W
08/14/2015  M0.70 INCH       CLINTON            MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RADIO OPERATOR RELAYED A SPOTTER REPORT OF DIME SIZE
            HAIL JUST NW OF GRAND LEDGE.

&&

JMAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
824 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             MOUNT PLEASANT          43.60N 84.77W
08/14/2015  E0.25 INCH       ISABELLA           MI   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

JMAPLES