Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

August 14, 2015Isabella County, Mecosta County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 14, 2015, 5:03 PM EDT for Isabella County, Mecosta County, Michigan. It was in force for 42 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 14, 2015, 5:03 PM EDT (21:03 UTC)
Expired: Aug 14, 2015, 5:45 PM EDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Isabella County, MI, Mecosta County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 14, 5:10 PM EDT	HAIL 0.75	1 E Rodney, MI

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 930 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -64 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 750 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

587 
WUUS53 KGRR 142103
SVRGRR
MIC073-107-142145-
/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0048.150814T2103Z-150814T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
503 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN ISABELLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
  NORTHEASTERN MECOSTA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 503 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BARRYTON...
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MECOSTA...             BARRYTON...            VILLAGE OF LAKE
  ISAB...
  RODNEY...              CHIPPEWA LAKE...       WEIDMAN...
  BEAL CITY...           BRINTON...             

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4368 8540 4381 8533 4376 8479 4352 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 308DEG 14KT 4370 8524 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

04

1 follow-up statement

323 
WWUS53 KGRR 142145
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
545 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MIC073-107-142154-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-150814T2145Z/
ISABELLA MI-MECOSTA MI-
545 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ISABELLA AND
NORTHEASTERN MECOSTA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL 
TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4368 8540 4381 8533 4376 8479 4352 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 308DEG 14KT 4370 8524 

$$

DUKE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 14, 2:32 PM EDT, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 14, 2:32 PM EDT, 2 hours 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
232 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.

RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHTING UP ACROSS THE UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST LOWER. A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CWA WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF JUICE TO WORK WITH. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE CLOSE TO 5K J/KG AND LI/S
AROUND -9C. SHEAR IS A BIT LACKING THOUGH AROUND 20-25 KTS...BUT IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MEANDERING ITS WAY
SOUTH AND LAYS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...BUT IT/S BEGINNING TO BE
INDISTINQUISHABLE. A BETTER KICKER MAY BE THE SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR
PULSE TYPE STORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE THAT A COUPLE
COULD BECOME STRONG. THE THREAT WILL FADE AS THERMODYNAMICS DECREASE
THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED EAST OF US-131 FROM 4-8 PM.

SINCE THE COLD FRONT IS WASHING OUT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 90. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
RESULT IN HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
WAVE ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.   MESOSCALE
FEATURES ALTER TIMING STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION.  WILL
FEATURE THE  HIGHEST POPS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THIS PASSING WAVE.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WE WILL SEE WELL ABOVE  NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
VALUES IN THE MID 80S LIKELY FOR MONDAY.  HOWEVER BEHIND THE FRONT A
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MVFR CEILING CONTINUE BROKEN TO SCATTERED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND IF
ENCOUNTERED WILL LIKELY CAUSE AVIATION IMPACTS. FOR NOW WILL
FEATURE A VCTS FOR KLAN AND KJXN AS INLAND LOCATIONS LOOK MORE
FAVORED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.

FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

NO MARINE HAZARDS DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

RIVERS HAVE MOSTLY RECOVERED FROM RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK...
THOUGH SOME SITES IN THE UPPER GRAND BASIN ARE RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY IN MID MICHIGAN WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING IS NOT PARTICULARLY LIKELY AS MOST STORMS
WILL TEND TO RAIN OUT OR PROPAGATE ELSEWHERE BEFORE TOO LONG.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 14, 1:30 PM EDT, 3 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
130 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-150800-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
130 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.  THE
STORMS WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND STALL NEAR
MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.

LMZ844>849-150800-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
130 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON  AND EVENING.  GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS.  CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO
POSE A RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND STALL NEAR
MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.

WDM MJS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 14, 4:39 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
439 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             1 N GREENVILLE          43.19N 85.26W
08/14/2015  M1.00 INCH       MONTCALM           MI   911 CALL CENTER

            CENTRAL DISPATCH REPORTED ONE INCH HAIL FALLING ON THE
            NORTHERN SIDE OF GREENVILLE

&&

JMAPLES

Local storm report, Aug 14, 4:40 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
440 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             1 NNW GREENVILLE        43.19N 85.26W
08/14/2015  M0.70 INCH       MONTCALM           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL FALLING AT THE TIME OF
            CALL. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40-45 MILES PER HOUR.

&&

JMAPLES

Local storm report, Aug 14, 4:44 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
444 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             1 NNW GREENVILLE        43.19N 85.26W
08/14/2015  M1.25 INCH       MONTCALM           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPDATED REPORT- SPOTTER CALLED BACK IN TO REPORT LARGER
            HAIL FELL SHORTLY AFTER CALLING IN AT 435PM. LARGEST HAIL
            WAS 1.25 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

JMAPLES

Local storm report, Aug 14, 4:45 PM EDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             GREENVILLE              43.18N 85.26W
08/14/2015  E0.88 INCH       MONTCALM           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS FALLING IN DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE.

&&

JMAPLES

Local storm report, Aug 14, 4:47 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
447 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             GREENVILLE              43.18N 85.26W
08/14/2015  E1.00 INCH       MONTCALM           MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL RANGING FROM PEA SIZE TO QUARTER SIZE FALLING IN
            GREENVILLE. REPORTS RELAYED BY WOOD-TV

&&

JMAPLES

Local storm report, Aug 14, 4:52 PM EDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
452 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             3 S EVART               43.86N 85.26W
08/14/2015  M0.50 INCH       OSCEOLA            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL HAIL RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES IN DIAMETER
            FALLING NEAR 90TH AND 3 MILE

&&

JMAPLES

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 14, 2:36 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Mecosta, Montcalm, Newaygo, Osceola	39 min
Aug 14, 3:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Kent, Mecosta, Montcalm	65 min
Aug 14, 4:06 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GRR	Montcalm	6 hr
Aug 14, 4:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ionia, Montcalm	60 min
Aug 14, 4:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Isabella, Mecosta, Montcalm	52 min
Aug 14, 5:01 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GRR	Osceola	6 hr
Aug 14, 6:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Clare	59 min
Aug 14, 6:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clare	40 min
Aug 14, 7:08 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Ionia	52 min
Aug 14, 7:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton, Eaton, Ionia	85 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.